| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard and Kierra Frazier | |  The Florida State Capitol building is seen in Tallahassee, Fla., on Jan. 11, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Good morning and happy Friday. Gov. Ron DeSantis often talks up Florida’s financial stewardship and the steps he has taken to protect residents from “Bidenflation.” A report before a key panel today gives a peek into what his last two years are expected to look like — as well as potential issues emerging for the next governor. The Joint Legislative Budget Commission will sit down this morning for a presentation by Amy Baker, the Legislature’s chief economist, about the state’s long-range budget outlook and have a chance to ask questions. It gives lawmakers, state workers, lobbyists and voters a good sense about how various state programs are doing and helps policymakers plan for the future. At the end of the meeting, the panel will vote to formally approve the financial outlook. They'll also take up a series of budget adjustments for agencies. (Tune in at 10 a.m. on the Florida Channel.) Here are 5 things to know about the 53-page report : — The budget is projected to go into a deficit in two years unless lawmakers make changes, POLITICO’s Gary Fineout previously reported. It predicts a $2 billion budget surplus for 2025 but then a $2.82 billion deficit for 2026 and a $6.94 billion deficit for 2027. These forecasts assume lawmakers will keep up similar decisions on spending they’ve made in recent years, such as popular tax cuts, though they may opt not to do so moving forward knowing a deficit looms otherwise. The outlook also reflects the fact that federal aid dollars from the pandemic are coming to a close, a fact that outgoing Senate President Kathleen Passidomo noted in an August memo. — More Floridians are projected to be enrolled in Medicaid than before the pandemic. That’s despite the state removing people from its rolls, citing lack of eligibility (which is resulting in some people getting kicked off that shouldn’t have been, per numerous reports). The program pays for medical services for low-income people with disabilities, children whose parents can’t afford coverage and for pregnant women. The budget outlook shows Medicaid is the largest chunk of Florida’s spending, at 28.5 percent. — Vices are down. Less smoking, and therefore lower tobacco tax revenues, means having less spending money for the state’s health programs. Fewer people also bought scratch-off lottery tickets, which help pay for public education from local school districts to the college level, including scholarships. The programs are still expected to get a boost, however, given earnings on investments and a slew of unclaimed prizes. The budget outlook also notes that ballot referendums could alter overall forecasts. One example could be how lawmakers decide to tax cannabis if Amendment 3 passes, and where they choose to send revenues. — An aging population will keep altering the state’s demographics. Baby Boomers began aging into retirement in 2011 and it’s no secret Florida is one of the go-to golden year destinations. By 2030, economists predict that a quarter of Florida’s population will be seniors — compared with a fifth in 2020. This will mean continued pressures on housing and health care, as well as downstream effects on Florida’s economy. — Today’s soon-to-be released federal jobs’ report is being closely watched after a jump in jobless rates in July. The budget outlook being presented this morning acknowledges uncertainty over the economy, as well as rate cuts expected from the Fed later this month and even the possibility of natural disasters like hurricanes. The report does project that the state’s gross domestic product growth will decelerate slightly under “more normal conditions” than the high inflation and high interest rates of the last couple of years, and then stabilize starting in 2026. COMING UP: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off in a debate next week. What questions should the ABC News moderators ask that would have particular salience for Florida? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com for a chance to get featured in Playbook.
|  | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | IN DISAGREEMENT — “Faculty, Florida state university chancellor spar over new antisemitism rule,” reports Tampa Bay Times’ Divya Kumar. “On the first day of the fall semester, the statewide council of faculty senates wrote to [state university chancellor Ray] Rodrigues to share members’ concerns … the group said the state’s approach ‘would not advance the cause of fighting antisemitism, but would substantially weaken the ability of the [state university system] to pursue our mission of advancing intellectual freedom, encouraging academic inquiry and fostering free speech.’” SKIPPING SEX ED — “Why thousands of Florida students are not being taught sex ed,” reports Popular Information’s Judd Legum. “A new school year is underway in Florida, and the FDE still has not approved any of the submitted sex education materials — or provided any response at all. Orange County hoped to make up for last school year's missed lessons when school started this August, ‘but now those plans are on hold.’ Schools are reluctant to use the state's pre-approved texts because they are glaringly incomplete.” RECONSIDERATION — “Appeals court asked to reconsider decision letting Florida’s trans treatment restrictions take effect,” reports News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders. “‘The district court’s order on the merits meticulously documented numerous statements by bill sponsors, high-ranking administration officials and other legislators that evinced clear anti-transgender bias,’ the motion said, referring to officials in Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration.” ‘MIND-BOGGLING GENEROSITY’ — “State parks whistleblower overwhelmed by praise and more than $207,600 in donations,” reports Palm Beach Post’s Kimberly Miller. “[James] Gaddis, a 41-year-old single dad who works a side job on Saturdays, had set a goal of $10,000 through a GoFundMe account he set up last weekend to bridge him and his daughter until he could find another full-time job. Donations stood at $207,610 as of 7 a.m. Thursday.” HUNGER REPORT — “47.7 million Americans lived in food-insecure households in 2023, according to USDA report,” by C.A. Bridges of USA Today Network — Florida. “In Florida, the three-year average percentage of households with food insecurity for 2021-2023 was 10.4 percent, better than the national average but up dramatically from the state's 2018-2020 average of 10.1 percent, however, that's well below Florida's 2011-2013 average of 14.1 percent.” EIGHT FELONY CHARGES — “Graphic death threats against State Rep. Randy Fine lead to arrest,” reports Florida Today’s Eric Rogers. “Edwin Guerro was arrested at Boston Logan International Airport by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Massachusetts State Police and FDLE agents after returning from outside the county, Fine said Wednesday in a news release”
| | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | | |  Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado holds up vote tally sheets during a protest against the reelection of President Nicolás Maduro one month after the disputed presidential vote which she says the opposition won by a landslide, in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 28, 2024. | Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo | ‘NO LIMITS TO ITS CRUELTY’ — “Opposition leader to stay in Venezuela despite Maduro government’s brutal crackdown,” reports the Miami Herald’s Antonio Maria Delgado. “Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said Thursday she has no plan of leaving her country even as the Nicolás Maduro regime moves to imprison the leadership of her democratic movement. Machado, who shared her outlook for the country’s democratic struggle in two public events on Thursday, said Caracas’ socialist regime is growing desperate and isolated amid claims that Maduro stole July’s presidential election, and that this makes him increasingly more dangerous.” TRANSITION WOES — “Corruption scandal in Haiti highlights shortcomings of U.S.-backed political transition,” by Miami Herald’s Jacqueline Charles. “The EDE-RED/Compromis Historique political coalition, led by former prime minister Claude Joseph, agreed on Wednesday to replace its representative, Smith Augustin, from the nine-member council. Smith was scheduled to take the reins of the council’s leadership next month. Smith, a former ambassador of Haiti to the Dominican Republic and two other council members are accused in a bank bribery scandal that has blocked the panel’s ability to make decisions and the prime minister ability to secure members’ signature on certain decisions.” — “Commander of Kenya’s security forces in Haiti says gang’s days are numbered,” reports the Miami Herald’s Jacqueline Charles. — “Parkland families clash in court over killer’s money and survivor’s settlement,” by Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. ALLEGEDLY BAMBOOZLED — “Miami-based media personality says he was duped in alleged Russian disinformation scheme,” reports Miami Herald’s Michael Wilner. “The indictment alleges, without charges, that the media company’s founders knew their benefactors were Russian and still failed to register as foreign agents, ‘as required by law.’ But Dave Rubin, a political commentator in Miami who has recently championed conservative causes with the company, wrote on social media that he ‘knew absolutely nothing about any of this fraudulent activity.’” — “Orlando-based Red Lobster can exit bankruptcy, judge rules,” by staff and wire reports in the South Florida Sun Sentinel. BLOCKED OFF — “Public beach or private? Homeowners in Florida draw a line in the sand,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Libertina Brandt. “Around half of Walton County’s beaches are private, usable only by residents and guests of specific beachfront homes, condominiums, resorts and communities. Those who don’t have private beaches can get to public stretches of sand at three state parks or through public access points scattered throughout the coastline’s neighborhoods and nestled between private properties.”
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | MONITORING — “Hurricane center tracking 5 systems that could develop,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Richard Tribou. “The highest odds for development remain a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea and headed for the Gulf of Mexico with increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The hurricane center gives it a 30 percent chance of development in the next seven days.”
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | THIS WEEKEND — The Republican Party of Florida is holding its “Victory Dinner” tomorrow at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The confirmed speakers include Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart. TIDBIT — Former President Donald Trump played golf with Gov. Ron DeSantis last weekend, per reporting from POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Meridith McGraw. CALLING IT QUITS — “GOP candidate bails from Orange-Osceola state attorney race,” reports Orlando Sentinel’s Cristóbal Reyes. “In a statement to supporters published online hours after officially withdrawing, [Seth] Hyman cited two reasons for his move: a meager war chest compared to his opponents and his concern that his candidacy boosted the chances of suspended State Attorney Monique Worrell, a Democrat who is vying to get her job back.” YESTERDAY — Democratic Reps. Frederica Wilson and Maxwell Frost held a tele-town hall for the “Stop Project 2025 Task Force,” with nearly 5,000 people tuning in.
| | | DATELINE D.C. | | |  President Joe Biden speaks to guests during an event at the Vernon Electric Cooperative on September 05, 2024 in Westby, Wisconsin. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | CUTTING GREENHOUSE GAS — “Biden announces funding for electric cooperative solar in Florida,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. “The Biden administration announced Thursday that Seminole Electric Cooperative is among the rural electric cooperatives that will receive $7.3 billion in financing to build clean energy projects across the nation … The award allows Seminole Electric, based in Tampa, to build 700 megawatts of solar and battery energy storage projects. Seminole is an energy wholesaler providing electricity through nine cooperatives to 2 million customers in 42 counties. That's equivalent to nine solar plants like those being built across the state by Florida Power & Light Co. and Duke Energy Florida.” CALLS FOR TRANSPARENCY — “Florida Democratic Congress members want investigation into state park plans,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Emily L. Mahoney and Max Chesnes. “‘Your proposal was quietly rushed into a public hearing process and timed to a summer travel period when residents were less likely to attend,’ reads the letter [from Democratic Congress members]. ‘Given this destructive, veiled affront, the public is owed peace of mind, honesty and transparency.’” STOCK ACT VIOLATION — “Rep. Byron Donalds didn’t properly disclose up to $1.6 million in stock trades, violating federal law,” reports Bryan Metzger of Business Insider. “Donalds and his wife made over 100 trades, valued between $108,000 and $1.6 million, over the course of 2022 and 2023. Though he disclosed those trades in annual forms filed in August 2023 and August 2024, he did not file any periodic transaction reports over those two years, which lawmakers are required to file within 45 days of trading any stock in order to ensure the public is aware of lawmakers’ financial dealings in real time.” … Donalds’ office said that third-party financial professionals made the trades without any direction or approval from Donalds or his wife and “the congressman is working to reconcile any outstanding infractions and follow all necessary procedure to ensure proper compliance."
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — “Tim Walz's brother lives in Florida and is 'opposed to all his ideology.' Who is Jeff Walz?” by Kim Luciani of USA Today Network — Florida. BIRTHDAY: Former Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) … (Saturday) State Sen. Bobby Powell ... Jenna Box Sarkissian with the Florida House … Chris Cate of Chris Cate Media … (Sunday) State Rep. Thad Altman … former state Sen. Anitere Flores … Karen Castor Dentel, Orange County school board member and former legislator … (Was Wednesday) POLITICO’s Kierra Frazier. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
