Back to the Future

Sep 22, 2024

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Good morning from a hot and humid New York City, where the traffic chaos and extortionate hotel prices can only mean one thing — the annual high-level week of the United Nations General Assembly.

I’m Suzanne Lynch reporting from U.N. headquarters and right across Manhattan where hundreds of off-piste events, meetings and receptions are taking place throughout the week, as well as the sci-fi sounding “Summit of the Future” which kicks off today.

Global Playbook will be in your inbox each morning through Saturday with all the latest from the world’s biggest diplomatic fest and dispatches from POLITICO’s top team of reporters.

First, here’s a lowdown of who’s in town for UNGA, and for the myriad of events taking place across the city, including New York Climate Week.

WHO'S HERE: U.S. President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Prince Harry, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Telsa and X owner Elon Musk, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

FUTURE-PROOFING

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER SUMMIT: As if the world wasn’t already drowning in high-level summitry, there’s another one to add to the mix. The two-day “Summit of the Future,” the latest attempt to try to make the multilateral system fit for purpose, opens today, attracting an extra contingent of world leaders.

Background: Plans for the summit date back to 2020, when the Covid pandemic prompted some soul-searching about the ability of the international community to deal with global challenges. And that was before the twin crises of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war that have exposed the deep divisions — and limitations — at the heart of the 193-member United Nations and particularly the Security Council.

State of play: Negotiations over the text of the summit communique, led by the legions of diplomats posted here in New York, have been ongoing with talks continuing right up to the wire last night at U.N. headquarters. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres is pinning his hopes on the 30-page text being signed-off this morning, despite a last-ditch effort by Russia and other smaller states including Nicaragua to insert new amendments.

Security Council reform: The draft document has ambitious wording on climate change, reform of the economic governance system which remains rooted in the post-1945 systems embodied by institutions like the IMF and the World Bank, and confronting the challenges posted by artificial intelligence. But the real takeaway is reform of the Security Council, the 15-member body that lies at the heart of the U.N.

America first: In the twilight of the Biden presidency, the United States said it wants Africa to have two permanent seats on the Security Council. The announcement by U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield who, in her own words, has spent 40 years working on Africa, can be seen as an effort by the U.S. to repair its relationship with Africa (catch up with this great read by Nahal Toosi on Africa’s absence from the diplomatic conversation in Washington). China for its part also supports Africa playing a bigger role in international affairs (perhaps no coincidence given Beijing's aggressive investment in the region in recent years).

Words matter: Currently the draft text to be signed-off by leaders this morning says the Security Council needs to be “more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, democratic and accountable” and should “redress the historic injustice against Africa.” It also pledges to “intensify efforts” to reach agreement on the future of the veto.

Diplomatic niceties: For long-time diplomatic watchers, getting 193 members, including Russia and China, to converge is an achievement, given the glacial pace of institutional change in the U.N. “We’ve the best language we’ve had on Security Council reform since the 1960s,” Michèle Griffin, policy director of the Summit of the Future, told Global Playbook. “It’s a real step forward. It’s not going to deliver reform overnight, but it sets the principles, parameters and broad direction of travel in a way that we haven’t succeeded in doing in decades.”

Putting on the pressure: Griffin also argues that the decision to convene the summit has focused minds. “This would not have happened if this summit had not been called — everybody understood that we needed to make progress, that decisions had to be made, and that we needed to give heads of state something to adopt.”

Next steps: Stakeholders already are clambering for indications that the Pact for the Future won’t just gather dust but will lead to meaningful change. At the opening ceremony on Saturday marking the “action days” that were taking place in the run-up to today’s summit, Secretary-General Guterres pledged that the articles of the text “will not be the end of the journey,” but “our next task is to breathe life into them” — though the follow-up will probably be done at events like the COP climate talks and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings.

Plan for today: The summit kicks off today at 9 a.m. with heads of state and government taking to the podium in the General Assembly Hall, under strict instructions to keep things short. While some heavy-hitters like Biden have stayed away, Namibia’s Nangolo Mbumba and Germany’s Olaf Scholz will have starring roles as both countries were co-facilitators in the process. It may offer some welcome respite for Scholz, who is bracing for a potentially career-ending result in local elections in the state of Branderburg Sunday as his party trails the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). More from POLITICO’s own Gordon Repinski in Berlin here.

Biden no-show: As Nahal Toosi reports, Biden’s no-show at the summit is a sore point among foreign officials. “New York is not that far from D.C.,” one Asian diplomat noted. But as Nahal reports, many diplomats are growing accustomed to U.S. presidents skipping such side gatherings like the Summit of the Future. Last year, Biden sent U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. This time, he has sent a video.

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IN THE LINE OF FIRE

UKRAINE IN FOCUS: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be a key focus this week, with President Zelenskyy due in town to present his peace plan and address the United Nations. A special Security Council meeting on Ukraine is scheduled for Tuesday — one of three meetings of the 15-member body due to take place this week.

Playbook interview: Global Playbook sat down with Baiba Braže, foreign minister of Latvia, to get her views ahead of the upcoming flurry of diplomacy. The Baltic country that borders Russia has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, its perspective shaped by its recent history as part of the Soviet Union.

On the front lines: Just this month a Russian drone bound for Ukraine crashed in the east of the country — an alarming illustration of the spillover threat posed by Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.

“In our assessment the drone that fell in Latvia was not intended as an attack on Latvia. That is very clear,” says Braže, who was appointed foreign minister in April. “There are no direct military threats to any of NATO’s members. Russia doesn’t have that capacity. Currently they don’t have the ability to attack NATO and our task is to keep it that way, so there is no new war.”

Balancing act: Braže’s message captures how NATO members are trying to tread a fine line — help Ukraine defend itself while avoiding getting dragged into a war.

Give them what they need: Braže is clear that NATO allies need to supply Ukraine with the equipment it needs to win the war — including sanctioning the use of long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, a key topic of discussion between Ukraine and its British and U.S. allies this week in the U.S.

“We have not put limitations to any of the weapons that we provide to Ukraine,” she says. She also pushes back against warnings that a move by Washington to green-light the use of weapons in this way could be escalatory. “It’s very clearly a self-defense measure. U.N. Charter Article 51 also covers the right to strike legitimate military targets in Russian territory.”

Escalation risk: But she is less forthright on a key demand by Ukraine. As former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba outlined in a recent interview with POLITICO, Ukraine wants allies to allow their planes to intercept Russian attacks over Ukrainian airspace. “These are difficult military political decisions,” says Braže, who served for three years at NATO in Brussels.

Russian presence: Braže is also damning towards Russia — particularly given the role Moscow holds as a veto-wielding member of the Security Council. “Members of the Security Council, especially the permanent members, are responsible for peace and security, not for breaking rules, blocking solutions. We have to stand by the basic principles we agreed to.”

Lavrov-watch: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is due in town this week, and is expected to touch down on Wednesday — not in time for Tuesday’s Security Council meeting. U.N. delegates got a taste of what to expect from Lavrov's appearance last week, with the minister telling a meeting of the BRICS group earnestly that Russia is “firmly committed to the principles of the U.N. Charter.”

A message from G42:

AROUND TOWN

WELL-RUN MACHINE: Avid readers of Global Playbook may recall reports of chaotic scenes and endless lines at the accreditation pick-up point for delegates and media at last year’s U.N. high-level week. This year, it was a different scene at the accreditation office on 45th Street, as thousands of delegates began arriving over the weekend, with few reports of delays.

ANYONE FOR SPORT: It’s not all hard work and diplomacy at the U.N. Today, the Italian consulate in New York will be hosting a sports-themed event to mark Italian sports day. Expect some guest appearances by big names from the NBA Players Association and the Italian Baseball-Softball federation. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola are among the political bigwigs attending.

ACTION PACKED: There has been quite a buzz around the U.N. this weekend as civil society groups, youth representatives and other constituencies with a stake in the pact being proposed today descended on U.N. Headquarters for the Summit of the Future “Action Days.” Side events also took place across Manhattan — the hippest venue was the Blue Gallery in Midtown, which is hosting the Youth Power Summit this weekend facilitated by Fondation Botnar and Restless Development.

YOU CAN’T WIN: One notable absentee this week is Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The Aussie leader was just down the road in Delaware on Saturday for the Quad summit hosted by President Biden. But unlike India’s Modi and Japan's Kishida who made the journey up the I-95 to New York, Albo high-tailed it back to Sydney last night. It’s a far cry from the early days of his premiership when the opposition dubbed him “Airbus Albo” for traveling too much overseas.

POWER MEETINGS: While many of the big guns won’t arrive until later in the week, there are plenty of meetings taking place today. A trilateral meeting between U.N. Secretary-General Guterres, the African Union and the European Union, represented by European Council President Charles Michel and EU High Representative Josep Borrell takes place this afternoon. Later, Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Borrell will host a dinner on the Middle East at the International Peace Institute, attended by leaders of several European countries including Ireland and Norway.

AGENDA

Here’s what’s happening today:

— 9 a.m. Opening session of the Summit of the Future and adoption of the Pact of the Future. Statements by Philemon Yang, president of the General Assembly, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, youth representatives, President of Namibia Nangolo Mbumba, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; General Assembly Hall.

— 10 a.m. Plenary Session; General Assembly Hall.

— 10 a.m. Interactive Dialogue 1, Transforming Global Governance and turbocharging the implantation of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development; Trusteeship Council Chamber, U.N. Headquarters.

— 11:30 a.m. Youth Power Summit continues at Blue Gallery, 222 East 46th Street.

— 11:30 a.m. EU Delegation to the United Nations. “Parliaments and Parliamentary Partnerships for the Women, Peace and Security Agenda” event. Opening address by European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.

— 1 p.m. New York Climate Week Opening Ceremony. The Times Building.

— 3 p.m. Interactive Dialogue 2; Enhancing Multilateralism for International Peace and Security; Trusteeship Council Chamber, U.N. Headquarters.

— 5 p.m. 2024 Concordia Annual Summit Opening Reception, CORE Club, 711 5th Avenue.

— 9:45 p.m. Nightcap for Nature, Goal’s House, Tavern on the Green. Co-hosted by Nature2, S2G Ventures, UNICEF, CurvePoint Capital.

SPOTTED

— German parliamentarian Armin Laschet walking alongside NYC Mayor Eric Adams as the Grand Marshal of German-American Steuben Parade Saturday.

— Irish President Michael D. Higgins enjoying a lakeside lunch at the Central Park Boathouse.

— European Council President Charles Michel rocking the weekend-casual look as he strolled past New York Public Library.

Thanks to Nahal Toosi, Cristina Gonzalez and editor Jones Hayden.

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