District 9: Rep. Josh Harder (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R) This Democratic-leaning Stockton-area seat held by Harder is the undercard compared to must-win Central Valley fights in GOP Reps. John Duarte’s and David Valadao’s districts. Yet Republicans are bullish that Lincoln could snag an upset, given he pulled off a 13-point ouster of well-known incumbent Democrat Michael Tubbs in Stockton’s 2021 mayoral race. Lincoln told Playbook that Speaker Mike Johnson visited his district as part of a Central Valley fundraising swing in August. Johnson in a statement to Playbook called Lincoln “one of the top candidates in the nation this cycle who can flip a seat.” “I have an incumbency advantage just as much as Josh Harder does because I’m the mayor of the largest city in the district,” Lincoln said. That optimism resonates in ad spending, where the National Republican Congressional Committee has funneled nearly $650,000 into a broadcast spot highlighting Lincoln’s background as a pastor and Marine veteran, according to AdImpact. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to invest in ads supporting Harder. But Harder, a formidable fundraiser, boasted a war chest five times larger than Lincoln’s as of June 30. And despite jumping into a new district in 2022, Harder notched a 10-point victory that outpaced margins for other Democrats on the ballot in his district that year, including Newsom and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla. Harder is looking to maintain his strength in November with messaging that directly speaks to residents’ frustrations with high costs. In a recent ad, he even included a dig at Democratic-controlled Sacramento, which he said has done “nothing” to curb rising utility prices. “The enthusiasm right now is incredible,” he told Playbook, citing a recent uptick in campaign volunteers. “It's clear our message of lowering prices is resonating.” District 40: Rep. Young Kim (R) vs. Joe Kerr (D) This Orange County contest is probably the least competitive of our wobbler races. Kim, the incumbent, has vastly outraised and outspent her Democratic challenger, Kerr, who has yet to air a broadcast ad as of today, according to AdImpact. Still, she is not taking any chances. So far, more than $3 million has been spent on ads bolstering the GOP congressmember, including spots from outside groups. The district is considered strongly Republican — and while President Joe Biden won it by just under two points in 2020, Kim beat her Democratic opponent by nearly 14 percent two years later. Like Kiley, Kim used her ad to paint a picture of bipartisan cooperation. It features community members talking about why they have her support, and it shows the congressmember talking to law enforcement officers, a motorist at a gas pump and a group of voters at a restaurant. Ad spending for Kerr has totaled a mere $709, according to AdImpact. That kind of money barely buys a postage stamp in the district’s media market and shows the uphill battle Kerr faces in this election. District 49: Rep. Mike Levin (D) vs. Matt Gunderson (R) Abortion is the hot topic in this wealthy, Democratic-leaning district lodged between Orange and San Diego counties and held by Levin. Gunderson, a car dealership owner, has pitched himself to voters as pro-choice, joining a small but growing legion of Republicans who hope a softer abortion stance can neutralize a weakness that’s haunted the GOP since the 2022 midterms. In his first TV spot, not-so-subtly titled “Pro-Choice,” Gunderson issued a vintage Clintonian decree that abortion “should be safe, legal and rare” over footage of him with his wife and four daughters. But Levin is out to poke holes in Gunderson’s pro-choice lifeboat. His campaign launched a TV ad today that picks apart the Republican’s position and leans heavily on Planned Parenthood to boost Levin’s abortion-rights credentials. “Our opponent continues throwing every lie at the wall to see what sticks,” Levin campaign manager Andrew Berkowitz told Playbook. Gunderson’s campaign told Playbook that Levin’s ad misrepresents his views and lacks context. “I have always been pro-choice and always will be,” he said. IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
|