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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the fallout from the arrest of an alleged Chinese spy in New York, preview Congress’ upcoming "China Week" and parse Tuvalu's diplomatic loyalty to Taiwan And we profile a book that argues that the U.S.-China international rivalry is just the latest chapter in a "terrible, familiar geopolitical game."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
'Tip of the iceberg' — 'Chinese spy' arrest risks diplomatic rift
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The arrest of an alleged Chinese spy who was an aide for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has sparked a diplomatic row and renewed concerns about Chinese espionage efforts in the United States.
CCP influencer. New York prosecutors say Linda Sun used her influence as a top aide to both Hochul and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo to shape state policy toward China and Taiwan, POLITICO's Nick Reisman reported Tuesday. An unsealed copy of the indictment against Sun includes charges of "violating and conspiring to violate the Foreign Agents Registrations Act, visa fraud, alien smuggling and money laundering conspiracy."
Diplomatic furor. Hochul told reporters on Wednesday that she had requested the State Department to expel China's Consul General in reprisal for the alleged spying, POLITICO's Bill Mahoney reported Wednesday. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Wednesday that Consul General Huang Ping left the U.S. at the end of August.
'Expulsion' disputed. However, Miller said the departure was unrelated to the New York spying allegations. Instead Huang had "reached the end of a regular scheduled rotation in August, and so rotated out of the position, but was not expelled," Miller told reporters Wednesday. Miller said the government takes violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act "very seriously" without commenting on possible State Department action related to the incident.
Embassy anger. The "expulsion" allegation angered China's embassy in Washington. That claim was "malicious" and "completely inconsistent with the facts," said embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu. Liu was also skeptical about the allegations against Sun. "In recent years, the U.S. government and media have frequently hyped up the so-called ‘Chinese agents’ narratives, many of which have later been proven untrue … we firmly oppose the groundlessly slandering and smearing targeting China," Liu said.
Bad timing. The arrest and its potential high-profile fallout coincides with efforts by both the U.S. and China to ease tensions in the run up to the U.S. presidential election, including a planned call between President Joe Biden and China's leader Xi Jinping. And it's a reminder of what U.S. officials and China experts say are Beijing's growing spying operations in the U.S.
"This is the tip of the iceberg – it’s not a one-off incident," said Heather McMahon, a former senior director at the President's Intelligence Advisory Board. That echoes FBI Director Chris Wray's warning in January that Beijing poses a "multi-pronged assault on our national and economic security." Those efforts have included Beijing's creation of covert police posts in U.S. cities to monitor and harass Chinese dissidents.
Preventative measures. State and municipal governments are at high risk of penetration by Chinese spies due to an absence of strict vetting procedures that are standard for officials at the federal level, said Dennis Wilder, former National Security Council director for China under the George W. Bush administration.
China's long arm. American citizens of Chinese descent may be uniquely vulnerable to becoming ensnared in Chinese spying efforts. Beijing's recruitment toolkit, along with financial incentives, includes threats to punish family members still living in China as a penalty for not complying with demands to spy for China, Wilder noted.
But an overemphasis on Asian Americans or Americans of Chinese descent as potential spies creates the possibility for racial profiling that led to the termination of the DOJ's "China Initiative" in 2022. "We need to avoid this becoming a red scare that targets Asian Americans," McMahon said. The profile of people convicted for spying is "usually a white male because they have the power and access that would be a benefit to a foreign actor" McMahon added.
House Republicans' legislative blitz on China looms
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson| Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images |
House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to seek fast-track approval of a slew of China-related bills as early as next week, an initiative his office has dubbed "China Week." Johnson said in July that he hopes to send the White House China legislation by the end of this year that would empower the next president to take tougher action against Beijing.
What we know. Johnson's office said amended versions are being sent out for three bills: no WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act, Protect America's Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act and DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act.
China's on the menu. The House Rules Committee has teed up more than a dozen bills sponsored by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle explicitly targeting various aspects of the U.S.-China relationship — uniformly hawkish, national security-related — for consideration as early as next week. The majority of the bills — including the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act and the Chinese Currency Accountability Act – are slated for consideration "under suspension of the rules," which allows the House majority to pursue passage of the legislation with a quick House vote. Three other bills are slated for consideration under the usual House rules that require multiple levels of congressional consideration.
Confusion reigns. China Watcher contacted all the lawmakers whose China-related bills are on the list. The majority didn't respond; one of those that did was also confused about whether the Rules Committee list matched what Johnson will seek to pass during China Week. "We are still waiting on confirmation about whether or not this will be part of the official 'China-Week' legislative push, but we do expect it to come to the floor," said a staffer for Rep. Richard McCormick (R-Ga.) whose Economic Espionage Prevention Act is on the Rules Committee list of bills for consideration next week.
Hard to get clarity. Johnson's office didn't respond to requests for more details on when China Week will occur, the full list of relevant bills, the criteria for selecting that legislation and the Speaker's strategy and hoped-for impact.
Leading Democratic lawmakers are also staying tight lipped. The office of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries referred China Watcher to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, ranking member of the House Select Committee on China. Krishnamoorthi's office declined to comment.
Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) provided a vague statement calling China Week "a unified, bipartisan approach to strengthen our defenses, tighten oversight, and ensure that China's unfair and malicious practices are met with decisive action from Congress."
The Chinese embassy didn't respond to a request for comment.
Don't mess with Wall Street. Those bills are just a fraction of the China-related legislation floated in this congressional session. And the criteria for which bills Johnson's office has selected for China Week include "not wanting to be perceived as over-regulatory among the GOP caucus," a person familiar with China Week planning told POLITICO. That sensitivity reflects House majority desire to balance tightening regulations to restrict capital flows to China "against their reliance on Wall Street donors for the upcoming election," said the person, who POLITICO granted anonymity to because they weren't authorized to speak on the record about congressional activities.
Stay tuned.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— SCIENCE-TECH DEAL IN LIMBO: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), ranking member on the House Science Committee is arguing for a renewal of the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement which expired last week. But only if that can be done without endangering national security. Protecting U.S. security and competitiveness shouldn't risk "closing our doors to global talent and stunting our competitiveness," Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), ranking member on the House Science Committee, said in a statement about the deal's status on Wednesday. The committee's chair, Rep. Frank Lucas, didn't respond to a request for comment. The inability of the two countries to agree on an extension underscores bilateral distrust as the U.S. rolls out ever-tighter export restrictions on high tech items to China.
The deal went into effect in 1979 and was the first compact of any kind between the two countries after they normalized relations. It first elapsed in August 2023, but two six-month extensions allowed it to continue until last week.
— RAHM RIPS CHINA'S ‘TERRITORIAL INCURSIONS': The U.S. ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, accused Beijing this week of intentionally penetrating Japanese airspace and territorial waters. "China says it's still 'investigating and verifying' the recent violation of Japan's airspace by one of its surveillance planes. But with a Chinese survey ship sailing into Japanese waters only the other day, two territorial incursions in less than a week looks more intentional," Emanuel said in an X post Tuesday. The ambassador salted that slam by urging the People's Liberation Army to use Google Maps to avoid future such incursions. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
EU TOP POLITICAL APPOINTEES TAKE STOCK ON CHINA POLICY: The chiefs of staff to all the European Commissioners held a meeting on Tuesday to draw their lessons on EU-China relations from the past five years, Camille Gijs writes in. Some participants raised alarm over China's overcapacity in several sectors, including in steel and machinery. There was also discussion on how Beijing went from a collaborative attitude to a more confrontational approach toward the West. The meeting, with input from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's in-house China adviser Andrew Small, also focused on the need for the EU to prepare for upcoming struggles, such as an invasion of Taiwan.
CHINESE EV GROWTH DRIVES VW'S EUROPEAN CLOSURE: Volkswagen, the German auto giant, is considering closing factories in Germany in part due to the fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicles, Bloomberg reports. If the closure happens, it will be the first time in the 87-year history of the auto company that forms a backbone of Germany's postwar economic success.
NORWAY PM TO VISIT CHINA: Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will visit China and meet President Xi Jinping next week, the Chinese foreign ministry confirmed Wednesday. According to ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, the visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties, and Beijing would like to "consolidate political mutual trust, expand practical cooperation, advance the green transition, and work for the sustained, sound and steady growth of bilateral relations" with Oslo. An earlier statement by Støre stressed that Norway, a NATO country, "has a lot of trade with China, [which] is Norway’s third largest trading partner, after the EU and the U.S."
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— CHINA'S 'FLYING TIGERS' FETISH, AGAIN: China's ambassador to the U.S, Xie Feng, is gushing about the U.S. airmen who served in the American Volunteer Group, popularly known as the Flying Tigers, in China during World War II. Those pilots are "a constant source of inspiration for the China-U.S. relationship" and a reminder that the two countries "have no single reason to engage in conflict or confrontation," Xie said in an X post Tuesday.
Beijing trots out the Flying Tigers and their symbol as what Xie called "profound friendship" every year or so (see this China Watcher for a deeper dive on that) as a diversion from otherwise fractious ties. And just as last year's Chinese state media spree of Flying Tiger stories coincided with the run up to President Joe Biden's meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November, Xie's Flying Tiger praise comes right in time for the countdown to a Biden-Xi phone call in the coming weeks.
— BEIJING BASHES MOOLENAAR, HOUSE CHINA COMMITTEE: China's Foreign Ministry isn't holding back on how it feels about the House Select Committee on China and its chair, John Moolenaar (R-Mich.). The committee "has no credibility to speak of…[and] has long vilified China and the Communist Party of China," ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Tuesday. Mao was triggered by a committee statement last week in which Moolenar urged Japan to continue to combat China's "malign economic agenda." Mao said those comments were "steeped in Cold War mentality and ideological bias." Moolenar didn't respond to a request for comment.
— NEW ZEALAND FLAGS BEIJING'S 'FOREIGN INTERFERENCE' : New Zealand's intelligence service called China "a complex intelligence concern" in a threat environment report published Tuesday. That concern is based on issues including "foreign interference activities" Beijing allegedly conducts against the country's ethnic Chinese population. Mao at China's Foreign Ministry responded to the report by urging Auckland to "view China in a rational and objective light."
THREE MINUTES WITH…
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Beijing flexed its diplomatic muscle with Pacific Island countries last week. And Taiwan — and by extension its key supporter the U.S. — was the loser. Chinese diplomats strong-armed heads of state attending the Pacific Island Forum, the region's top diplomatic gathering, into dropping any mention of the forum's ties with Taiwan in the post-event communique. Beijing's influence clearly outgunned that of the U.S. delegation led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
The Pacific island nation of Tuvalu is on the front lines of a regional geostrategic rivalry between the U.S. and China as one of only 12 countries that diplomatically recognize Taiwan. China Watcher spoke with Tuvalu's representative to the United Nations, Tapugao Falefou, about the island nation's relationship with Taiwan, China and the United States.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
How fiercely is China competing for influence among Pacific Island countries?
The very fact that China recently managed to convince some of the Pacific Island countries that had been loyal allies of Taiwan for many years [to recognize Beijing] clearly demonstrates China’s influence on the Pacific is very strong.
Is China making inroads in Tuvalu?
There have been a few very informal discussions that used to pop up every now and again [in Tuvalu] about China and about Taiwan. But honestly there was never an official attempt as far as I know by China that has made some progress into convincing Tuvalu [to drop ties with Taiwan].
Why does Tuvalu have official ties with Taiwan rather than China?
Taiwan operates under the rule of law and the principle of democracy. And we feel that democracy is an important principle that we should uphold. Of course we know that China is a huge country and a huge economy. China has the potential of providing financial support or infrastructure development support. But that is something to us that is secondary.
Tuvalu places more value on the rule of law and the principle of democracy as opposed to economic benefit.
What's your assessment of U.S. reengagement efforts among Pacific island countries?
China’s recent step-up of influence in the Pacific has really helped us in getting the U.S. back to the Pacific. One of the issues that we have raised with the U.S. is the possibility of extending its [diplomatic] representation to Tuvalu. We know that they have announced the opening of a few embassies in the Pacific — Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Tonga.
Because of Tuvalu’s strong ties with Taiwan and given that the high chance of China coming in to influence us, it is important for the U.S. to seriously consider having representation in Tuvalu. Purely out of political interest, no matter how small Tuvalu may be in terms of land size and population, they have to really consider getting an embassy into Tuvalu.
HEADLINES
New York Times: China dominates the situation room but not the campaign trail
Washington Post: How China extended its repression into an American city
The Economist: China's new age of swagger and paranoia
Bloomberg: Putting 'Asia first' could cost America the world
HEADS UP
— PENTAGON CHOOSES CHASE FOR XIANGSHAN FORUM:
The annual Beijing Xiangshan Forum, an international meeting of defense officials, opens next week on Sept. 12. And the Pentagon is dispatching deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, Michael Chase, to represent the U.S. at the event, Reuters reported Wednesday.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
Eurasian Century| Credit: WW Norton |
The Book: The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars and the Making of the Modern World
The Author: Hal Brands is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
The U.S.-China clash is the latest installment in a long, violent Eurasian Century. Since the early 1900s, Eurasia has been a strategic prize without equal. Autocratic states, from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II in World War I, to the Axis powers in World War II, to the Soviet Union during the Cold War, tried to seize commanding positions in the world's strategic heartland.
Today, America's rivalry with China and its emerging axis of authoritarians is a lot of things — but it's also the next round of this terrible, familiar geopolitical game.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
Nothing is predetermined. We often think history had to turn out a certain way, but that's not true. Germany nearly won World War I several times. Different decisions could have produced radically different outcomes — perhaps even an Axis victory — in World War II. The Cold War turned on crucial choices, beginning with the Marshall Plan and the formation of NATO, from the late 1940s onward. Although big impersonal forces like demography and geography will shape the U.S.-China competition, its ending may well be determined by the quality of the choices — and leaders — those countries produce in the years ahead.
How sustainable is the Biden administration's network of alliances — NATO, AUKUS, the Quad, the Japan-S. Korea trilateral etc — in facing down the potential threat from China's increasingly tight alignment with Russia, along with Iran and North Korea?
It hinges on how the U.S. conducts itself. The more menacing China, Russia, North Korea and Iran act — and the more they cooperate — the more they encourage advanced democracies around the Eurasian periphery to work together.
But these relationships will only endure if the U.S. continues to orchestrate them, if it continues to bear the burdens of global leadership, even as it also pushes sometimes-reluctant allies to do more to help themselves.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
MANY THANKS TO: Heidi Vogt, Ari Hawkins, Connor O'Brien, Nick Reisman, Bill Mahoney, Camille Gijs and digital producers Emma Cordover and Natália Delgado. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com sla
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