| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | DEPT. OF PARTY-POOPING — “Don’t Trust the Election Forecasts,” by Justin Grimmer for POLITICO Magazine: “The truth is we don’t have nearly enough data to know whether these models are any good at making presidential prognostications. And the data we do have suggests these models may have real-world negative consequences in terms of driving down turnout.”
|  Kamala Harris is planning to roll out new economic proposals ahead of next week's debate. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | COMING ATTRACTIONS — VP KAMALA HARRIS is planning to roll out a suite of new proposals intended to boost small businesses and entrepreneurs before she delivers a campaign speech in New Hampshire tomorrow, WaPo’s Jeff Stein reports. The thinking: The timing is intended to draw a contrast with DONALD TRUMP’s proposal for a lower corporate tax rate ahead of next week’s debate. What else could be coming: “Advisers to the campaign have also discussed including plans to bolster the safety net, such as through child-care or paid leave expansions, alongside tax proposals, although it is unclear whether those or other policies will be in Wednesday’s announcement.” WHERE HARRIS IS STILL LAGGING — While there’s a clear surge of momentum behind Harris as we enter the home stretch of the campaign, there is still a critical coalition that the Democratic nominee will have to shore up if she wants to best Trump in November, WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and Stephanie Stamm write: the Biden 2020 electorate. For instance: Harris’ support “has grown by 13 percentage points among Black voters since Biden left the race in July, combined results of Journal polls in late July and August show. But at 81% support, she is still 10 points behind Biden’s 2020 mark. Harris has also gained 13 points in Latino support — but lags behind Biden’s 2020 mark by 6 points.” THE UNDERCARD — Harris’ campaign and the DNC this morning dropped an unprecedented deluge of down-ballot support, announcing that they’ll send nearly $25 million for Democratic candidates in House and Senate races — an earlier investment and far more money than the top of the ticket has sent in past election years, Jessica Piper reports. “The funding in part reflects the Harris operation’s ability to spread money around after record fundraising over the past six weeks. But it is also a recognition of the importance of this year’s down-ballot races — which overlap with many of the swaths of the country that could decide the presidential election, and whose outcomes will substantially affect how Harris, or former President Donald Trump, will be able to govern next year.” The details: “The newly announced funds come from both the Harris campaign and the DNC, with a total of $10 million each going to committees supporting Democratic candidates for House and Senate, along with $2.5 million to a national Democratic group supporting state legislative candidates and $1 million each for groups backing Democratic gubernatorial and attorney general candidates.” For context, the DNC back in 2020 transferred $5 million to the DCCC and $1 million to the DSCC in mid-October. Speaking of the DCCC: The org is boasting about its energized ground game with Harris atop the ticket now, Nicholas Wu reports. DCCC staff and volunteers “knocked on more than 377,700 doors in August — more than in May, June and July combined, according to the committee. The DCCC said 104,000 of those were in the last week of August alone, the most of any week this cycle. House Democrats’ campaign arm also made 845,500 phone calls in August, similarly surpassing the total for the previous three months.” AFTERNOON READ — “How NAFTA Broke American Politics,” by Dan Kaufman for NYT Magazine Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: TRACKING THE SENIOR VOTE — Protecting Medicare tops the list in this election, according to a new bipartisan poll. Today, that means Medicare Advantage.
Medicare Advantage represents over half of the Medicare program, serving more than 33 million seniors. Seniors choose Medicare Advantage for affordable health care with better outcomes.
That’s why a supermajority of older voters agrees: Washington must keep health care affordable for seniors by standing up for Medicare Advantage. Read the results. | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  British Ambassador Karen Pierce's term is ending next year. Who might replace her in D.C.? | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | 1. WHAT OFFICIAL WASHINGTON IS READING: “A U.K. Succession Drama: Who Will Be the Next Ambassador to the U.S.?” by NYT’s Mark Landler: “With [KAREN] PIERCE’s term scheduled to end early next year, Britain’s Labour government now faces a personnel decision that would test the most adroit of diplomats: who to appoint as the next envoy to a country that is a reliable ally but will be on a very different political trajectory, depending on whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump is elected. “Prime Minister KEIR STARMER is expected to deal with that uncertainty by not choosing Ms. Pierce’s replacement until after the election in November. That has not stopped the London papers from speculating about who might get what is regarded as the plummiest post in the British diplomatic corps. Among the names being floated are DAVID MILIBAND, a former foreign secretary once viewed as a future Labour Party leader; PETER MANDELSON, a Labour grandee who has held multiple cabinet posts; and JONATHAN POWELL, who served as chief of staff to Prime Minister TONY BLAIR.” 2. ALARM BELLS STILL RINGING: A network of “Chinese government-backed trolls” are aiming to sow discord and disinformation ahead of the U.S. election, “assuming fake identities of politically engaged voters on social media to promote divisive narratives around issues including gun control, racial inequality and the Israel-Hamas war, according to new research,” WSJ’s Dustin Volz reports. The researchers have attributed the effort “to a prolific influence network known as Spamouflage that has been previously linked to the Chinese government.” The posts appear to be somewhat equally targeting Trump and Harris (and Biden before he left the race). 3. ABORTION FALLOUT: An interesting new trend is emerging in the national abortion debate two years after the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, as “growing numbers of men in red states are speaking out in defense of reproductive rights because of the harrowing experiences they’ve seen wives or partners go through when pregnancies went tragically awry, endangering their health or ability to bear children,” WaPo’s Emily Wax-Thibodeaux reports. “Some … had been staunch abortion opponents; others concede they’d given the issue little thought until it hit close to home.” 4. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: “Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks,” by WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji: “At a time when many people have been stung by higher prices for eggs, bread and other household staples, the stock market has offered a real-time barometer of their rising wealth. The S&P 500 has hit more than three dozen fresh records this year, on pace for the most in a calendar year since 2021.” Related read: “The Fed welcomes a ‘soft landing’ even if many Americans don’t feel like cheering,” by AP’s Christopher Rugaber
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Seniors can’t afford policies that make their health care more expensive. They are counting on Washington to protect Medicare, including Medicare Advantage. Learn more. | | | 5. OF THE PEOPLE: WaPo’s Opinion section is up with the first installment of a new series — “Who Is Government?” — that will publish every Tuesday and is meant to explore the scope and significance of a functioning federal government, which could change dramatically based on the results of the election. The inaugural piece is written by Michael Lewis, and focuses on CHRISTOPHER MARK, a Labor Department mining expert in West Virginia whose job is to ensure that mines don’t fall on workers. “No one ever told Chris to invent better rules,” Lewis writes. “But before he even began to figure out better designs for coal mine pillars, he knew that was what he wanted to do: He wanted to keep miners safe.” 6. IMMIGRATION FILES: “How an Ohio Town Landed in the Middle of the Immigration Debate,” by NYT’s Miriam Jordan in Springfield, Ohio: “By most accounts, the Haitians have helped revitalize Springfield. They are assembling car engines at Honda, running vegetable-packing machines at Dole and loading boxes at distribution centers. They are paying taxes on their wages and spending money at Walmart. On Sundays they gather at churches for boisterous, joyful services in Haitian Creole. But the speed and volume of arrivals have put pressure on housing, schools and hospitals. The community health clinic saw a 13-fold increase in Haitian patients between 2021 and 2023, from 115 to 1,500, overwhelming its staff and budget.” 7. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “How China extended its repression into an American city,” by WaPo’s Shibani Mahtani, Meg Kelly, Cate Brown, Cate Cadell, Ellen Nakashima and Chris Dehghanpoor: “Chinese diplomats and pro-China diaspora groups based in the United States organized demonstrations in San Francisco that harassed and silenced protesters opposed to Beijing’s policies, including through violence, during Chinese leader XI JINPING’s visit to the city in November, a six-month investigation by The Washington Post shows. “The events in San Francisco illustrate how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is willing to extend its intolerance of any dissent into the United States and target people exercising their First Amendment rights in an American city. It is part of a broader global pattern of China attempting to reach beyond its borders and suppress parts of its diaspora advocating against the CCP and ongoing rights abuses in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and mainland China, the U.S. government and human rights groups say.” 8. START SMALL, THINK BIG: “Rise of the Pint-Size Startup Is Reshaping the U.S. Economy,” by WSJ’s Ruth Simon and Paul Overberg: “The average number of people employed by the youngest businesses fell sharply during the pandemic, accelerating a decadeslong slide. The rise of these smaller ventures is one of the first signs of how pandemic-inspired businesses have reshaped the economy. Businesses launched between March 2020 and March 2021 had, on average, 4.6 employees, compared with 5.3 employees a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. That figure was 5.8 at the turn of the century and had been declining gradually until Covid-19 spurred a sharper drop.”
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Pat Toomey says he will not vote for Donald Trump. Mark Robinson’s, uh, extracurricular endeavors are in the spotlight. Jimmy McCain was not a fan of Trump’s appearance at Arlington National Cemetery. MEDIA MOVE — Robbie Gramer is joining POLITICO to anchor the National Security Daily newsletter and cover the National Security Council. He previously covered diplomacy and national security at Foreign Policy. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Eric Teetsel is joining Center for Renewing America, a group started by Russ Vought and other former Trump officials, as EVP. He previously was VP of government relations at the Heritage Foundation and is a Josh Hawley alum. TRANSITIONS — Matt VanKuiken is joining BlackRock as director of government affairs and lead Democratic lobbyist. He previously was chief of staff for Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). … Stacey Leavandowsky and Kaadé Wallace are joining Federal Street Strategies. Leavandowsky most recently was chief of staff for Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.). Wallace previously was the primary Democratic lobbyist for the Consumer Brands Association. … … Alex Rogoff is now congressional liaison at Democratic Majority for Israel. He previously was Middle East policy adviser for Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and is a Ted Deutch alum. … B. Todd Jones is rejoining Robins Kaplan as a partner. He previously was SVP and special counsel for conduct at the NFL. … Will Davis is now director of the United Nations Information Center in Washington. He previously was director of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Washington Center and is an NSC and State Department alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Emma Doyle, managing director at Bondi Partners and a Trump White House alum, and Brett Doyle, managing director of outreach at the Mercatus Center and a Trump USTR/EPA alum, welcomed Edmund MacGregor Doyle on Friday. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
