| | | | |  | | By Phelim Kine and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Vietnam's Minister of Defense General Phan Van Giang (left) shake hands with Philippines' Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro after delivering joint statements pledging to improve military cooperation between the two Southeast Asian nations in Manila on Aug. 30, 2024. | Ted Aljibe/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Paul McLeary, Anthony Adragna, Daniel Lippman and Robbie Gramer Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Philippines and Vietnam sent a message to Beijing last week about its increasingly aggressive moves in the South China Sea — back off. Beijing, so far, is brushing off the warning. The letters of intent from Vietnam’s Defense Minister General PHAN VAN GIANG and his Philippine counterpart GILBERTO TEODORO on Aug. 30 pledge to improve military cooperation between the two Southeast Asian nations in a formal agreement expected in December. The terms of that cooperation are modest — a focus on military medicine and humanitarian aid. But it’s a way to signal that the countries’ first-ever joint coast guard drills last month are part of a larger effort to curb China’s power in the region. “It's baby steps…but this could develop [into deeper ties],” said Ret. Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY, the former operations director of U.S. Pacific Command. China, however, is doing the opposite of backing off. Following those patrols its coast guard has escalated its ongoing standoff with Manila by extending its harassment to waters adjacent to the Philippines' Sabina Shoal. That’s where a China Coast Guard ship deliberately rammed a Philippine vessel last week in an incident that U.S. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said caused “damage to the vessel and jeopardizing the safety of the crew onboard.” And the Philippines — which has borne the brunt of Beijing's aggression, namely violent efforts by the China Coast Guard to block resupply missions to Manila’s military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal — is still struggling to solidify regional support. Beijing’s regional economic influence is hard to argue against. ASEAN has restricted its involvement to talks on a voluntary code of conduct in the South China Sea that won’t produce a deal until 2026. The close ties between China and Vietnam means Beijing isn’t panicking yet. Regional security cooperation “should be conducive to regional peace and stability,” Chinese embassy spokesperson LIU PENGYU said of the deal. Hanoi’s history of border conflict with China means Vietnam is likely to “remain neutral as far as Beijing's interests go,” said DREW THOMPSON, former director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The State Department said in a statement that it “welcomes the growth of partnerships between our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region” reflected in the Hanoi-Manila agreement. BRIAN HARDING, former country director for Asian and Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, argued that the deal shows that the U.S. efforts to get countries in the region to team up against China are paying off. The U.S. “is not out there twisting arms — countries that are concerned about Chinese aggression are banding together in practical ways,” Harding said.
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Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | IRAQ WITHDRAWAL PLANS: The U.S. and Iraq have reached an agreement to gradually reduce the presence of U.S.-led coalition troops in the country ahead of a 2026 withdrawal. As Reuters’ TIMOUR AZHARI and AHMED RASHEED report, the plan, which just needs final approval from Washington and Baghdad, would see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026. The plan was supposed to be announced earlier this summer before regional tensions worsened with the war between Israel and Hamas. The talk of a deal follows Iraqi Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI’s visit to Washington in April. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that the Iraqi leader claimed ISIS is no longer a threat and argued that it was time for the bilateral relationship to change. But don’t count on a complete withdrawal of U.S. military presence in the country. Some U.S. troops are expected to remain in the country, as Baghdad and Washington look to establish a new advisory relationship. EYES ON QATAR: Qatar has emerged as a key broker in talks between Israel and Hamas, and The New York Times’ ADAM RASGON and JULIAN BARNES are taking a look at how Doha is leveraging its power and influence in these negotiations. The Times reports that in the aftermath of Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran, Hamas wanted to raise new demands as part of cease-fire and hostage release negotiations. But Qatar’s prime minister, who had spent the preceding months trying to get Hamas to make concessions, convinced the militant group to reconsider. The episode, the Times reports, is just one instance of how Doha has filled a critical role as a mediator. Beyond serving as a host for marathon talks, Qatari officials have relayed messages between the White House and Hamas and back-channeled with Israel. And Qatar has kept Hamas at the negotiating table, even when Israeli actions, like the May invasion of Rafah, have made the group more weary about the prospect of a deal. THE OTHER NEW INDO-PACIFIC FRIENDSHIP: While Vietnam and the Philippines are deepening ties, Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA paid a visit to South Korea today. The trip comes as Seoul and Tokyo continue to bury historical bygones in the face of rising Chinese aggression. Kishida, who is leaving office later this month, expressed sympathy for South Koreans who suffered abuses during Japanese occupation and underscored the need for both countries to continue mending fences after he leaves office, according to the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM. South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL, who initiated the rapprochement with Tokyo over the last year, acknowledged that “difficult issues” between the two countries remain but said he hopes that the two countries will continue discussions about greater economic and military cooperation in order to achieve “a brighter future.” The budding ties between Seoul and Tokyo come as China and North Korea have acted more provocatively toward South Korea and Japan in recent months, with Pyongyang conducting more missile tests and Beijing flying aircraft near Japanese airspace in recent months. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring ROBBIE GRAMER, who takes over as the anchor of your favorite newsletter on Monday. Robbie can often be found kicking back a Pacifico with friends and family when he’s not trying to chase down the inside scoop in Foggy Bottom and at the White House. And if you catch him at a bar, Robbie often goes for a practical choice. He says he’ll often order a tried-and-true drink: a rail gin and tonic. “It’s cheap, it’s cold, it’s refreshing, and I can get it at any bar,” Robbie quipped. For what it’s worth, he also says he’s open to “better, cooler” drink suggestions (whatever that means). Email your recommendations (and your tips!) to rgramer@politico.com. Cheers, Robbie! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | QUANTUM EXPORT CONTROLS: Add quantum computers to the list of technologies now subject to U.S. export controls. Our friends at Morning Tech report this morning (for Pros!) that the Biden administration is implementing a rule today that will bar U.S. companies from exporting quantum computers and other advanced technologies to any other countries unless they have gained an exemption. The countries that are currently exempt from these export controls, which include the U.K., Japan and Canada, have implemented similar policies. The new rule, which also imposes additional restrictions on the exports of semiconductor manufacturing technology, is the latest effort from Washington to ice out China’s burgeoning tech sector. And it comes as the U.S. and its allies look to circumvent the Wassenaar Arrangement — a post-Cold War pact on restrictions for weapons and dual-use technologies. Russia, a party to the agreement, has stood in the way of multilateral export control efforts in recent years. Former Assistant Commerce Secretary KEVIN WOLF, now a partner in international trade practice at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, is among those praising the U.S. efforts to get around Wassenaar. “Instead of just not imposing the controls, what the U.S. and the other allies agreed to is — this is completely novel — that they're just going to each publish what they informally agree to on their own,” Wolf told our own CHRISTINE MUI. | | SECDEF SPEAKS: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN again rejected giving Ukraine the ability to use long-range U.S. missiles anywhere they see fit inside Russia, despite the Ukrainian leader again pleading for restrictions to be lifted, our own PAUL McLEARY writes in. Speaking Friday after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Austin said that Russia has already moved many of its aircraft and munitions depots out of range of U.S. missiles, reiterating the U.S position that no single weapon would be a game changer in the war. “I don’t believe one specific capability will be decisive,” Austin said when asked about listing the current restrictions on the use of U.S.-made long-range missiles. “Ukraine has capabilities of its own” to do long-range strikes, he added, referencing the small drones Ukraine has been using to hit Russian oil storage sites and ammunition depots inside Russia. Austin also announced a new $250 million security assistance package for Kyiv, saying it will provide "more capabilities to meet Ukraine's evolving requirements." American and Western aid for Ukraine — along with Kyiv’s own domestic defense industry — have handed Russia some painful losses since its 2022 full-scale invasion, including the killing or wounding of some 350,000 Russian troops and the sinking or damaging of 32 Russian Navy vessels in the Black Sea, Austin noted. “Ukraine has driven all of Russia's major naval vessels out of Crimea and pushed Russia's Black Sea Fleet further east,” he said. Earlier in the day, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY again appealed to the international community for more long-range weapons to get Russian air bases deep inside Russia, from which fighter planes launch glide bombs that are targeting Ukrainian civilian targets. | | JOHNSON’S UKRAINE MEETING: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON huddled with Ukrainian Parliament Speaker RUSLAN STEFANCHUK while in Italy on Friday, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA writes in. The Ukrainian leader urged Congress to ease restrictions on using longer-range U.S. weapons against Russia. “Ukraine does not have to defend itself with tied hands, we must get the opportunity to strike military objects of Russia,” Stefanchuk wrote in a post on Facebook. Johnson, according to a spokesperson, responded that Congress “understood” Ukraine’s position and noted that the speaker said in June that the U.S. should cease “engaging in micro-management of war efforts in Ukraine.” In addition, Johnson reiterated to Stefanchuk that he has continued to press the Biden-Harris administration to take meaningful steps on sanctioning Russia and hitting Russian military launch sites that are targeting Ukraine energy infrastructure and schools, according to his office. CONGRESS’ CHINA WEEK: House Republicans are fast-tracking a spate of bills next week targeting China, as the GOP looks to burnish its tough-on-Beijing credentials. But some China hawks are disappointed in the bills moving through Congress. As our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report, some groups are criticizing Johnson and Republican leadership for lightening up on businesses with interests in China. “By almost all accounts, ‘China Week’ in the House of Representatives will in fact be … weak,” wrote SCOTT PAUL, who leads the Alliance for American Manufacturing, on X. “Tough trade and investment measures shelved. Global companies successfully persuaded House GOP to back off. Not a good signal to send to Beijing.” The House Rules Committee has teed up more than a dozen bipartisan bills targeting various aspects of the U.S.-China relationship. Among the legislation up for a vote is a bill that would curb the use of Chinese-manufactured drones across state and local agencies, including police departments and a bill that would enshrine automatic sanctions to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. | | POINTING THE FINGER: Intelligence community officials are warning that Russia, China and Iran are “ramping up” efforts to meddle in key races, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!). “Russia, Iran and China are all trying by some measure to exacerbate divisions in U.S. society for their own benefit, and they see election periods as moments of vulnerability,” an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters. That ODNI official and four other officials representing the ODNI, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency were all granted anonymity as a condition of briefing reporters. The briefing — the third update from the intelligence community this election cycle — came as the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank put out new research today warning that Iran has been operating 19 fake news sites in the efforts of targeting minority and veteran voters. As our own MAGGIE MILLER reports, the sites, part of a coordinated effort to spread disinformation ahead of the election, have also put out pro-Iran content and content critical of Biden and former President DONALD TRUMP.
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Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more. | | | | | — NSC climate chief SARAH LADISLAW has left the White House to return to her former organization, RMI, as managing director for the U.S. program, POLITICO’s E&E News reported on Thursday. Ladislaw, who led the NSC’s global climate and energy initiatives, has been replaced by JAKE LEVINE of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. — BENJAMIN SCHWARTZ has joined Open AI to work on the tech company’s AI infrastructure partnerships and policy projects. He was previously head of the national security division of the Commerce Department’s CHIPS Program office. | | — MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: The other European proxy war — CATHERINE BELTON and DAVID STERN, The Washington Post: D.C. lobbyists battle over future of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine — COLIN GRABOW, War on the Rocks: U.S. maritime policy needs an overhaul | | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Voices for peace and human rights in Israel/Palestine — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Building a sustainable U.S.-Japan relationship — Heritage Foundation, 11 a.m.: Exposing China’s complicity in America’s fentanyl crisis — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 a.m.: U.S.-Bahrain ties one year after the strategic partnership agreement — Center for American Progress, 11 a.m.: Managing U.S.-China technology competition in an era of rising tensions — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11 a.m.: Addressing democratic erosion in the Western Hemisphere: Can the OAS stem the tide? — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: What's next for Maduro's criminal hybrid state in Venezuela — Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program, 4 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "The Struggle for Taiwan: A History of America, China, and the Island Caught Between." — Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and the Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, 4 p.m.: Climate change as a threat multiplier: Implications for U.S. defense and global security — Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 7:30 p.m.: The duty to dissent: Objections to U.S. policy on Israel and Palestine Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose aggressive actions are prompting the creation of a Phelim-Eric-Robbie alliance. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, whom we would warmly welcome into the alliance. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
