No sleep until Christmas

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Sep 03, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ Just back from holidays? We’ve got you.

→ An XXL-sized Playbookers section following our one-week hiatus.

→ Another Big-L Senate appointee gets the call.

For your radar


ON YOUR MARK, GET SET — Go.

There won't be much stopping until the end of the next election campaign. We're in for a frenzied fall, wacko winter, and silly spring. Before long, it will be writ season.

All that stands between the fishbowl and winter holidays — aka The Last of the Quiet Times — is a marathon of sitting days, provincial elections, global summits and economic flashpoints.

On this day after Labor Day, here’s your guide to the next four months:

— Econowatch: There will be three “TIFF MACKLEM Days” before Christmas. The Bank of Canada governor's next interest rate announcement is tomorrow. He'll follow up with another on Oct. 23 and a year-ender on Dec. 11.

Keep an eye out for fresh StatsCan inflation data on Sept. 17, Oct. 15, Nov. 19 and Dec. 17. Each dollop will bring revived and/or rephrased talking points from all sides.

— Prep time: Liberals meet next week for a national summer caucus retreat in Nanaimo, British Columbia (Sept. 9-11).

— First day back: A pair of by-elections fall on Sept. 16, the same day Parliament returns from summer break.

The contests in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun and Elmwood-Transcona will compete for headlines with the Hogue Foreign Interference Commission, which opens a new round of public hearings the same day. Odds are the high-stakes votes will beat the public inquiry.

— The House is in: MPs will be in Ottawa a lot between Sept. 16 and the third week in December. They will only escape for two week-long reprieves anchored by Thanksgiving (Oct. 14-18) and Remembrance Day (Nov. 11-15).

— Summit season: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has his pick of globetrotting confabs to work into his agenda. He’s attended most of these outside of election campaigns or pandemic years, but the calendar and sheer number of flight hours could pose logistical challenges.

The PM could attend the U.N. "Summit of the Future" (Sept. 22-23) before his annual chance to speak at the General Assembly in New York City (Sept. 24-28, 30). The Francophonie Summit is in France (Oct. 4-5). The ASEAN Summit lands in Laos (Oct. 6-11). Commonwealth leaders meet in Samoa (Oct. 21-26). Peru will host APEC (Nov. 10-16). G20 leaders catch up in Brazil (Nov. 18-19).

FWIW, the PM has never missed a summit of La Francophonie, Commonwealth, APEC or G20 leaders. He's a regular in Canada's U.N. speaking slot, and would break a two-year ASEAN streak if he skipped that one.

→ Call the COPs: If the PM really wants to avoid Ottawa, and rack up a pile of air miles along the way, he could head to the U.N.'s biodiversity conference in Colombia (Oct. 21-Nov. 1) and U.N. climate talks in Azerbaijan (Nov. 11-22).

→ This would be on brand: If Trudeau yearns for a trip to northern Italy, the OECD Global Forum on Building Trust and Reinforcing Democracy meets in Milan (Oct. 21-22). The Privy Council Office wrote the PM a mid-July briefing note on that confab.

— Provincial votes: Three provinces must go to the polls before the end of October.

None of the premiers has called an election, but the scheduled voting days are clustered in British Columbia (Oct. 19), New Brunswick (Oct. 21) and Saskatchewan (Oct. 28).

— Oh yeah, that election: Americans vote Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Check out our 2024 mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events scheduled on his itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines an evening party fundraiser at Browns Crafthouse Vic West in Victoria, British Columbia.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY have not released public plans for today.

DULY NOTED


1:30 p.m. Liberal MP MARK GERRETSEN announces support for the cleantech sector at GreenCentre Canada in Kingston, Ont.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR


VACANCY WATCH — Saturdays are for Senate appointments.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU kicked off the Labor Day long weekend by announcing new gigs for a pair of Albertans. DARYL FRIDHANDLER and KRISTOPHER WELLS give Alberta its first full roster of Wildrose senators in four years (h/t Sen. PAULA SIMONS).

The PMO-supplied backgrounder identified Fridhandler as a corporate lawyer, arbitrator, mediator, businessman, King’s Counsel, recipient of several awards and recognitions, and trusted legal adviser who "has been actively engaged in the community, serving on the boards of numerous organizations."

— Details, details: The bio omitted a few details from Fridhandler's history as a regional fundraiser and campaigner for the federal Liberals, including stints as Alberta leadership campaign co-chair for PAUL MARTIN and MICHAEL IGNATIEFF.

Wells, an educator and LGBTQ+ advocate, is a vocal critic of Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH's gender policy. Smith dismissed Trudeau's picks as "left-wing partisans who will do whatever he and the Liberals order them to."

Alberta holds non-binding elections for its Senate seats — most recently in 2021, when three Conservatives won the vote. Conservative PMs tapped five provincially elected senators between 1990 and 2013. Trudeau has ignored those results.

— The latest count: Six seats sit empty in the appointed place. Four senators are due to retire before 2025: Quebec's DIANE BELLEMARE (Oct. 13), Ontario's RATNA OMIDVAR (Nov. 5), Nova Scotia's STEPHEN GREENE (Dec. 8) and Saskatchewan's BRENT COTTER (Dec. 18).

Keep an eye out for more PMO appointees with Big-L resumés (or anti-Poilievre track records).

2024 WATCH

Left: Donald Trump speaks at a podium. Right: Kamala Harris speaks at a podium.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris: Labor Day check-in. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

CLOSER THAN IT SEEMS — Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the U.S. general election, and KAMALA HARRIS has reached it with a slim advantage over DONALD TRUMP, writes STEVEN SHEPARD, senior campaigns and elections editor at POLITICO.

— But, but, but: The former president would be well within striking distance if the election were held today.

— Shepard explains: “Because of Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College, a race that Harris leads nationally by between 2 and 4 percentage points, on average, is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states.”

Read Shepard’s full analysis.

And just published by ELI STOKOLS and ALEX ISENSTADT: Harris and Trump brace for final sprint in ‘snap election.’

MEDIA ROOM

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference in Berlin, Germany, on Aug. 28, 2024.

"Delivery and honesty is the best way of dealing with the snake oil of populism and nationalism," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said last week. | Ebrahim Noroozi/AP

— From our colleague in Berlin: U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER says progressives around the world need to up their game to defeat the “snake oil” being peddled by the far right.

— POLITICO's NETTE NÖSTLINGER reports from Germany following weekend state elections: "Germany’s far right is here — and it’s here to stay."

AARON WHERRY of CBC News tackles the question everyone’s asking: “How much longer can the Liberal-NDP deal last?”

— During the PM's visit to Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., cameras caught a frank exchange between JUSTIN TRUDEAU and a man who made clear he is not a supporter.

MAURA FORREST of The Canadian Press reports that at least 91 candidates will be on the ballot for the Sept. 16 by-election in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. “Seventy-nine of them are linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system.”

— #ICYMI: Business in Vancouver's ROB SHAW scored the inside story on British Columbia's eye-popping unite-the-right deal meant to topple DAVID EBY's NDP this fall.

— Foreign Policy dives into NATO's race against China to build icebreakers. Noted in the text: Washington's dispute with Canada's territorial claims to Arctic waters. Newsweek is also watching China's interest in Arctic waters.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers via DOUG PALMER, ARI HAWKINS and KYLE DUGGAN: US challenges Canada’s new DST as USMCA violation.

In other news for Pro readers: 

UK to join CPTPP trade pact by Dec. 15.

Inside the other think tank orbiting Trump world.

Trump says he’ll declare a national emergency on energy.

‘Ropeless’ fishing gear nets crabs without whale entanglements.

US vows cooperation with Peru as critical minerals race heats up.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to former Privy Council clerk MICHAEL WERNICK, a trio of former Conservative MPs (PAT PERKINS, RANDY WHITE and MIKE WALLACE), and former Hamilton Mayor FRED EISENBERGER.

Belated long-weekend birthdays to The Logic's DAVID REEVELY and One Persuasion's DAVID MURRAY.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

In memoriam: STEVIE CAMERON died Saturday at her home in Toronto. During her long career, the investigative journalist worked in newsrooms of the Citizen, Globe, Star and Maclean's. She hosted CBC's “The Fifth Estate” for a time and was the founding editor of Elm Street magazine.

“She was as fine a human as I ever knew,” Dateline correspondent KEITH MORRISON shared on X. “She made her name taking on the powerful, while she fed the hungry and found shelter for the homeless. These strange times needed her. Still do.”

Cameron was the author of many books, including “On The Take” and “Ottawa Inside Out”. 

She was also recognized for her volunteer work and philanthropy.

“The measure of a good person is in helping others and for Stevie that was Out of the Cold at St Andrew’s,” journalist PATRICIA TREBLE shared. “Her laugh and dedication were unmatched.”

Spotted: Sen. STAN KUTCHER, calling for an independent fact-checking organization “to review and report on statements from all politicians" … Conservative MP GREG MCLEAN, cheering the Paralympics.

Canada's second-longest serving MP, LAWRENCE MACAULAY, wisecracking to CBC News about his state of campaign readiness: “I just hope I'm alive when the next election comes around.” (His office reassured KATE MCKENNA he was joking.)

Sen. PATRICK BRAZEAU, celebrating his son’s first day of kindergarten … Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, on the back of an ATV in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador. … Liberal MP KODY BLOIS and the PM, throwing punches.

Noted: Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE voiced a new 60-second ad with many of the hallmarks of RONALD REAGAN's famous "Morning in America" ad of 1984.

Tory MP ANDREW SCHEER posted a 13-minute attack on the Liberal criminal justice record — comparing the prime minister's rhetoric to infamous communist despots … Tory MP ARPAN KHANNA unveiled a slightly longer video on the government's immigration record.

Movers and shakers: NOLAN TOSCANO, a former staffer to Scheer, is now a government relations consultant at the Sandstone Group … CONNOR MACDONALD, formerly a policy adviser to PIERRE POILIEVRE, starts law school at McGill.

AIMAN AKMAL, issues manager and communications adviser to Immigration Minister MARC MILLER, left the Hill last week to pursue a master's degree at the University of Cambridge.

TODD SMITH, Ontario’s former energy minister, has a new job with the nuclear industry. Smith is working for Candu Energy, focusing on marketing and business development outside of Canada — a role he cleared with the integrity commissioner.

Housing Minister SEAN FRASER appointed TERESA GOLDSTEIN and JENNIFER KEESMAAT to the National Housing Council … Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI appointed nine judges.

DAVID JONES has joined the C.D. Howe Institute as a fellow-in-residenceMEAGAN BYRD, a former political staffer in Nova Scotia, joined Spark Advocacy as an account manager … During Playbook’s hiatus, AVI LEWIS was nominated to be the NDP candidate in Vancouver Centre.

Media mentions: “Yesterday was my last day as CEO [and] Editor-in-Chief of The Conversation Canada,” writes SCOTT WHITE. “It was also my last day as a journalist.” 

The Pulitzer-winning CONNIE WALKER was included on ELLE Canada’s list of Canadian changemakers. The same list that added then subtracted Ontario MPP SARAH JAMA.

Former Global News journalist ERICA VELLA recently started a new gig as a senior adviser for communications and media relations at the Greater Toronto Airports Authority.

The National Cartoonists Society just honored MICHAEL DE ADDER for his work at The Washington PostCHERYL STEPAN has been promoted to editor-in-chief of The Hamilton SpectatorTHE WALRUS is accepting applications for two editorial fellowship positions.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


10 a.m. MITCH DAVIES and DAVID LISK of the National Research Council of Canada will be at the House public accounts committee to help illuminate the auditor general’s findings on Sustainable Development Technology Canada’s governance and stewardship of public funds.

TRIVIA


Previous answer: Aug. 24 marked the 210th anniversary of the burning of Washington during the War of 1812.

Props to MORGAN LARHANT, JOHN MERRIMAN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN DILLON, JOHN ECKER, J. ROLLAND VAIVE, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, JOE MACDONALD, ALEXANDER LANDRY (who reminded us of an Arrogant Worms tune on the topic), PATRICK DION, GORDON RANDALL, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, DAMIEN O'BRIEN, TOD COWEN, BOOTS VAISEY, LAURA JARVIS, MARC LEBLANC, ROY NORTON, CAMERON RYAN, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, TRISTAN DENNISTON (who reminded us of CORB LUND's relevant lyrics), JENN KEAY, HUGUES THÉORÊT and DARRYL DAMUDE.

Today’s question: Finish the quote. “The Battle of the Atlantic was not won by any Navy or any Air Force, it was won by the courage, fortitude and determination of the British and Allied [fill in the blank]."

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

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