Poilievre at the 2-year mark

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Sep 10, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ A quick look at the Poilievre formula as he enters his third year as CPC leader.

→ Playbook’s NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY checks in from Nanaimo, British Columbia.

DONALD TRUMP has a conspiracy-filled JUSTIN TRUDEAU shoutout in his new book.

For your radar

Canada's Conservative Party newly elected leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during the Conservative Party Convention at the Shaw Centre, Ottawa, Canada on September 10, 2022. (Photo by Dave Chan / AFP) (Photo by DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Pierre Poilievre was elected leader of the Conservatives two years ago today. | AFP via Getty Images

TAKING STOCK — Another go around the sun and PIERRE POILIEVRE is marking two years at the helm of the Conservative Party today since his decisive leadership win.

Love him or hate him, the captivating character has been a tour de force in Canadian politics.

“It's discipline, but it's also simplicity,” says ALEX MARLAND, a politics professor at Acadia University. “Message simplicity is a huge hallmark of branding and being able to connect in a digital marketplace where everybody is so busy.”

— Contrast: The 11 minutes it takes a Liberal MP at the door to explain carbon pricing and rebates … with the 11 seconds it takes for the Conservatives to rail against the carbon tax.

Poilievre’s verging-on-apocalyptic rhetoric, ability to speak repetitively in simple, snappy soundbites and quick thinking on his feet has made it easy to gain earned media — the PR practitioner term for news coverage — especially compared to his predecessors.

“Even Harper, who struggled with this stuff — it wasn't natural, organic,” Marland said.

The party boasts that Poilievre’s wife ANAIDA POILIEVRE is involved in designing the party’s merch and occasionally does interviews, and his family shows up in photos and ads. He’s had certain moments go viral.

— A Trudeau-esque anti-Trudeau: From the quick quips to the strong retail politics game to the marketing, there’s something eerily familiar about it all.

There's so many parallels with circa 2014/2015 Justin Trudeau … it's uncanny, frankly,” Marland said. “And Trudeau has now taken on the persona of Harper.”

— Swerved hard: Poilievre has also been successful at keeping third-rail issues at bay in a way no previous leader has. See:transgender and pronoun policies.

— A quiet bag of cats: Conservative strategist FRED DELOREY tells Playbook keeping the party united, disciplined and focused is “no easy task.”

 “Under STEPHEN HARPER's leadership, there may have been four or five different types of conservatives — now there's 20 different types, but [Poilievre’s] done a solid job of keeping them all united and all focused on the same goal.”

— Compare, contrast: The resounding win preempted the various factions from sharpening their knives and plotting for the next go-round. There’s no heir apparent. Just like JUSTIN TRUDEAU and STEPHEN HARPER, he won the party in a landslide.

“With ERIN O’TOOLE as leader, given the different factions that were at play, people disagreed with certain positions or whatever, and were moonlighting on their own,” one Conservative source granted anonymity to speak more freely tells Playbook. “But it's hard to compare both eras from that point of view because the pandemic was just a shitshow for everybody.”

Big internal conflicts have been limited to those lining up to vie for nominations, and party comms is staying on target.

— Heck of a time for media: Tough times trying to get a party backbencher or critic point-person on the phone, if it’s not about the message of the day/week/moment. Then, of course, there’s Poilievre eagerness to scrap with journalists for clips and fundraising appeals. Back to the Harper-era war on media.

 — Heck of a time for Parliament: His team has played hardball in Parliament with extreme rhetoric and aggressive QP lines, and procedural tactics to game out more attention through social media channels, sometimes known in practitioner speak as “owned media.”

 — Key figures: Regular Playbook readers won’t be surprised that rank-and-file Conservatives will point to JENNI BYRNE as a key ingredient to Poilievre’s success in fine tuning the Big Blue Machine. She’s not alone.

MIKE CRASE moved to the federal party this time last year, fresh off the heels of rebuilding the Ontario PCs from the PATRICK BROWN era. Poilievre also shook up the Conservative Fund, tapping ROBERT STALEY to lead it.

— Fine tuning: Playbook is told the team speaks to caucus with one voice, helping the credibility of the leader’s office. Party headquarters is larger and has returned to having desk officers, with every region represented by a point person. It’s also hired more organizers across the country. They’re working on a new app for door-to-door canvassers.

Operations manager JEREMY LIEDTKE watches the moving pieces and STACEY SHERWOOD is focused on fundraising and logistics from HQ.

— Fundraising King: There’s not a lot of money in Canadian politics if you look at what’s taking place in the U.S. presidential race. But the money going around is mostly ending up in Conservative pockets, with Poilievre raising record amounts in his first full calendar year. He consistently hauls in more than all the other parties combined.

— Crunch the numbers: “Pierre is big on data,” the party source said. “More money in the coffers allows for more money to be spent. … You can have extra people at headquarters.”

 — Sights on replacements: Poilievre has made PMJT out to be the source of all Canadians’ problems, as he channels national grievances into his push for political change. That, of course, rests on a key foil.

With MARK CARNEY’s name back in the news, some post-Trudeau party messaging has already started to emerge. Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer got up in front of the cameras in B.C. on Monday to tell reporters the Liberals are all from the same crop of “out of touch elites.”

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend the Liberal caucus retreat.

— Playbook was not provided with an itinerary for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET speaks with media at 11 a.m. outside the Bloc caucus retreat in Montebello, Quebec, about his priorities for the year in Parliament.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Montreal where at 9 a.m. he’ll attend the NDP caucus planning session. At 12:30 p.m., he’ll hold a presser. At 5:30 p.m., he and NDP caucus members will canvass in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY host a community meeting in her riding.

DULY NOTED


Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM delivers a speech to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce in London, U.K.

DRIVING THE DAY

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 19: Mark Carney, UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance & Co-Chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero speaks onstage during The Bloomberg Transition Finance Action Forum at The Plaza Hotel on September 19, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies)

Mark Carney will chair a leader’s task force on economic growth. | Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies

CAUCUS TALKUS — The Liberal mood seems to occupy that awkward space between optimism and resignation.

They are kinda like Maple Leafs fans heading into Game 7. They know victory is theoretically possible. Still, they gird for the inevitable.

— Folk hero: Whither the Council of Economic Advisers promised three years ago as a font of independent advice to a government touting its focus on a growth agenda. Enter MARK CARNEY, the two-time central banker and forever-maybe politician — and now top economic adviser to JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

Carney will chair a leader’s task force on economic growth, which will meet with "foremost experts in the business community, labor movement, Indigenous economic leadership, innovators, and more" — all with a view to the Liberals’ next campaign platform.

The Rockcliffe resident's new appointment was news to Liberal MP JAIME BATTISTE when he stepped in front of a mic late Monday morning. Battiste, who ran into Carney at the airport on the way to the retreat, had only nice things to say.

Asked about Trudeau's future as PM, the Cape Bretoner let slip that the boss has earned the right to "go out on his own terms." CBC's CATHERINE CULLEN detected a note of resignation in his framing. Battiste walked it back.

— Drip, drip, drip: Few MPs direct outright negativity at the prime minister. But on the five stages of grief continuum, some are edging closer to acceptance.

Liberal MP ALEXANDRA MENDÈS told CBC News that it's game over for Trudeau in the minds of her voters. "I heard it from dozens and dozens of people," Mendès said. "He's no longer the right leader."

Radio-Canada’s LAURENCE MARTIN quotes an anonymous Liberal MP saying Trudeau should take a cue from the U.S. race: Pull a Biden and take a hike.

The tone from some MPs borders on sorrowful, as they laud a Trudeau legacy that is just not hitting anymore with their constituents.

Others insist hard work can still produce results — in their own ridings, at least.

IDEA FACTORY — If Liberals are going to convince voters they're worth another term, they'll need compelling ideas that fill a platform. Amid the doom and gloom, Liberal MP SOPHIE CHATEL arrived in Nanaimo with a binder full of policy.

Chatel, the chair of the party's rural caucus, huddled with MPs behind closed doors for a couple of hours Monday. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND took in the talks, gliding past reporters on the way into the room.

— Anatomy of a caucus: Over coffee with Playbook early Monday, Chatel outlined the debate. She wouldn't comment on the talks, insisting that what happens in caucus stays in caucus. (Except for the first couple of minutes, when in-room audio of Chatal calling the meeting to order was accidentally piped into the corridor.)

We do know food security and the economic growth potential of the ag sector were on the agenda. Chatel will present a short report to the national caucus before the week is out.

→ Roundtable reflection: MPs also exchanged summertime experiences at the doorstep, talking over what they heard from constituents. (For a flavor, recall Mèndes' comments above.)

— Previous victories: The rural caucus was an early champion of renewing the federal government's Local Journalism Initiative, which has funded reporting jobs in underserved communities since 2019.

Talk of the town


NANAIMO BAR OF THE DAY — Serious Coffee, which boasts award-winning Nanaimo bars, is steps away from the Vancouver Island Conference Centre.

— Today's review: Before we could taste-test our daily treat, the Conservatives alerted reporters to an impromptu harborside press conference. ANDREW SCHEER, the Tory tapped to rain on the caucusing Liberals' parade, forced us to stow away our bar and jaunt over to take in Scheer's gripes.

Predictably, the bar's custard melted.

Still, the top layer of ganache withstood the heat in our satchel. The compromised custard was just sweet enough. The lower coconut-based crust held steady, despite the challenging conditions. No crumble.

Overall score: 8.5/10

2024 WATCH

Signage at the media filing center ahead of tomorrow's presidential debate between Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

The media filing center for tonight's presidential debate. | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

TONIGHT IN PHILADELPHIA — Former U.S. President DONALD TRUMP is laying the foundation for a “rigged” debate before he squares off with Vice President KAMALA HARRIS tonight at 9 p.m. ET.

In a prerecorded interview that aired Monday morning, Harris said she expects Trump is “going to lie” during the ABC News debate and is prepping for “untruths.”

The Globe's ADRIAN MORROW made Bingo cards for tonight's event.

— In other related reading: PETER BAKER of the NYT reports that Trump is now the one facing questions about age and capacity.

The Atlantic's TOM NICHOLS writes on what the first question to Trump should be.

TRUMP QUESTIONS PMJT’S PATERNITY — MARGARET HARTMANN writes in New York Magazine that Trump’s new coffee-table book, “Save America,” lacks the “twisted charm of its predecessors” and, in previewing the highlights from the book, points to a curious section on Canada’s PM.

“Trudeau and I got along very well, but there were natural differences in that he is very Liberal, and I, to put it mildly, am not. It will be very interesting to see how we do in the future, but first, I have to get there,” he writes.

Then Trump brings up a long-debunked falsehood by suggesting FIDEL CASTRO is the prime minister’s real father:

“His mother was beautiful and wild. In the 1970s, she would go ‘clubbing’ with the Rolling Stones, but she was also somehow associated with Fidel Castro. She said he was ‘the sexist man I've ever met,’ and a lot of people say that Justin is his son. He swears that he isn't but how the hell would he know! Castro had good hair, the ‘father’ didn't, Justin has good hair, and has become a Communist just like Castro.”

MEDIA ROOM


— From CP’s BILL GRAVELAND: “Alberta protesters get 6 1/2-year sentences for roles in Coutts border blockade

— Nunatsiaq’s ARTY SARKISIAN writes about Poilievre’s trip to Iqaluit where he argued the carbon tax would hit northern communities “far worse” than the rest of Canada.

DARREN MAJOR of CBC News looks at stakes of next week's by-elections for NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.

ÉRIKA BISAILLON reports for Radio-Canada that the NDP’s divorce from the Libs was months in the works, almost exactly a year before the deal was scheduled to end.

— A real talker from MIKE DE SOUZA at The Narwhal: “Canada paid McKinsey, flush with fossil fuel clients, [C$1.3M] for clean tech advice

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers by NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: Why Carney is with the Liberals in B.C.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Google tries to reality-check Biden’s lawyers in court.

Draghi’s energy diagnosis: Become a superpower or die slowly.

Protectionism won’t make trade more ‘inclusive,’ WTO says.

— ‘Very high integrity risk’ found in corporate-funded climate projects.

The first version of ‘Project 2025.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: Liberal MP DARREN FISHER and Conservative MP BEN LOBB. Sen. PAUL MASSICOTTE and former Sen. DANIEL CHRISTMAS.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: JOSEPH GEDEON, a national security reporter at POLITICO and author of Morning Cybersecurity, and REGINA DE HEER, a producer at New York Public Radio/WNYC, got married over Labor Day weekend in Montreal. Pic, via Yvens BanatteAnother pic.

ROMEO DALLAIRE told CTV's Power Play VASSY KAPELOS that he's ready to return to public life after recovering from a severe infection.

→ In Nanaimo: Canada 2020 President BRAEDEN CALEY, fresh from a stop at the Banff Forum gabfest in Whitehorse, Yukon.

Movers and shakers: Jagmeet Singh’s chief of staff JENNIFER HOWARD will be the NDP’s national campaign director in the next federal election, a role she assumes Sept. 16.

JO GAUVIN, Singh’s deputy chief of staff and a key player in the SACA saga, becomes chief of staff. ERIN MORRISON becomes the new deputy chief of staff, per a party news release, “with primary responsibility for communications.”

Ontario NDP MPP MONIQUE TAYLOR will leave provincial politics to vie against Liberal MP LISA HEPFNER in the next election for the Hamilton Mountain seat.

Media mentions: The Logic’s MURAD HEMMADI is taking on a new beat, covering artificial intelligence for the growing tech publication, and will be moving to Toronto later this year.

TRIVIA


Monday’s answer: It took ROBERT STANFIELD five ballots to pick up the votes needed to win the Progressive Conservative leadership on Sept. 9, 1967.

Props to JOHN ECKER, CHIP SMITH, GEOFFREY CHAMBERS, MALCOLM MCKAY, JIM CAMPBELL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DOUG RICE, RAY DEL BIANCO, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, SCOTT LOHNES, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, MARCEL MARCOTTE and NANCI WAUGH.

Today’s question: Who once called a Liberal-NDP governing pact an “unholy alliance” that attacks the “fundamental checks and balances” of the parliamentary system?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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