Retreat, no surrender

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Sep 09, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Liberal MPs renew acquaintances after a totally-not-boring summer.

→ One of those MPs, CHRIS BITTLE, checks in with Playbook.

→ Prorogation? Really? (Probably not.)

Driving the Day


RETREEEEEEEAT! — Liberals are filing into scenic Nanaimo, British Columbia.

They'll settle in for three days at Vancouver Island Conference Centre, where MPs will meet first in smaller caucuses and then for several hours each day as a national group.

Today, three caucuses meet: women, rural and Indigenous.

— VIP watch: They'll also hear from MARK CARNEY, whose name hadn't been in the news for — gasp! — days before the Star's ALTHIA RAJ scooped his plan to fly west.

— Vibe check: All the goss heading into the annual retreat is about the mood in caucus following a summer of moribund polls in every region — and before a Montreal by-election where a loss would launch a thousand more columns about the souring Trudeau brand.

— This morning's talker via the Globe: Five chiefs of staff set to leave the Trudeau government.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has boasted of thousands of conversations with Canadians in recent months, including many with MPs. He also attended regional caucus meetings. Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND told reporters she spoke one-on-one with 70-ish caucus colleagues.

The duo did a lot of listening. They made a lot of promises to "deliver for Canadians." Now, they gather in one room for the first time since June.

— Headlines: The governing squad endured an up-and-down week after Labor Day.

JAGMEET SINGH killing the supply-and-confidence deal delivered a fundraising windfall, Liberals claimed. (So did New Democrats.)

But party insiders mourned the departure this month of JEREMY BROADHURST as national campaign director — another Raj scoop.

— Big questions: The grump count in Trudeau's caucus has never been totally clear.

Visceral dissent is bubbling more freely among the staffer ranks, where some of the most sardonic pass around gallows-humor memes about severance packages.

Still, threads hang in the air, waiting to be confirmed or quashed:

→ Who's still worried about that Toronto by-election loss in June?

→ Did those prime ministerial summertime one-on-one calls quell unrest?

→ Does anybody think they can turn things around and win another term?

→ Is PABLO RODRIGUEZ going to run for another job, or what?

→ Will Trudeau tell his troops he intends to call it quits?

We snuck that last one in there on the off-chance years of speculation about the PM walking away come to fruition before everybody flies back to their ridings and on to Ottawa.

— Another talker: From the Star's TONDA MACCHARLES this morning: Trudeau shrugs off naysayers as he heads into retreat.

— An epic journey: Nanaimo is a little off the beaten path.

The city's airport flies direct only to Vancouver, Calgary and Kelowna. Anybody east of Alberta put up with layovers of varying lengths from the mainland. Or, like Playbook, they boarded a scenic ferry across the Strait of Georgia.

At least two Cabinet ministers, as well as various MPs and journalists, endured the misery of Air Canada delays at the Ottawa airport. STEVEN MACKINNON and LAWRENCE MACAULAY's snakebitten Vancouver-bound flight sat on the tarmac for hours. They departed nine hours late.

Talk of the town


NANAIMO BAR OF THE DAY — Each day we're in town, Playbook will review a sampling of the local delicacy that put this coastal city on the map. We're rating the treats according to three criteria: sweetness level, layer balance and structural integrity.

— Today's review: Sunday afternoon meant slim pickings in downtown Nanaimo. We settled for the bakery counter at the nearest Thrifty's supermarket.

The sweetness didn't overwhelm, and the three layers were properly proportioned — slim, crisp ganache top; generous custard filling; and a coconut crust base of roughly equal proportion, though uneven in parts. The custard kept its form from start to finish, but the crust was too crumbly.

Overall score: 6/10

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is bound for British Columbia with no public events on his itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is also in Nanaimo with plans to attend regional caucus meetings.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will be at Frobisher Inn in Iqaluit for a rally at noon local time. JEFF PELLETIER of Nunatsiaq News sets the scene.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and his caucus are gathering in Montebello, Quebec. MICHAEL SABA of The Canadian Press writes on the gains for Quebec the party hopes to extract in exchange for supporting the Liberals.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not released his public itinerary.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will travel to Elmwood—Transcona where at 3 p.m. local time she and Green candidate NIC GEDDERT will hold a presser at a CN train yard to discuss the nationalization of Canadian railways. After a community rally, she will serve as the starter for a bike ride around Elmwood that ends with a picnic.

DULY NOTED


— Defense Minister BILL BLAIR won't be with the Liberal flock in British Columbia. Blair is in South Korea until Thursday and then will travel to Japan until Saturday (his first trip to both countries in his current role).

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

This combination of photos taken at campaign rallies in Atlanta shows Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump.

Tuesday’s debate, hosted by ABC News at Philadelphia’s National Constitution Center, will be the first time Donald Trump and Kamala Harris meet face to face. | AP

KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP square off in Philadelphia on Tuesday at 9 p.m. on ABC — eight weeks before voting day. Today's top POLITICO read via STEVEN SHEPARD: "Harris’ momentum has stalled — but not reversed. Here’s 5 takeaways from the latest polls."

ALEX ISENSTADT and MERIDITH MCGRAW report this morning that Trump is already l aying the foundation for a “rigged” debate.

The NDP caucus meets Tuesday through Thursday in Montreal, fresh from their break with the Liberals. With the supply-and-confidence agreement firmly in the rear view, New Democrats will now plot strategy for a vote-by-vote minority government.

Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM will be in London to address the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday. Title of the talk: “Global trade from a Canadian perspective.”

HALLWAY CONVERSATION


HOLD FOR THE PM — Playbook spoke to Liberal MP CHRIS BITTLE over Labor Day weekend — back in the SOCA days — at a bakery next to his constituency office in St. Catharines, Ontario. At the time, he told us he was feeling optimistic heading into the caucus retreat: “That's hard as a lawyer and as a politician for nine years.”

— Talking to Canadians: Like most MPs, Bittle spent his summer hearing about cost of living issues. “I go to the grocery store,” he said. “I know what the prices people are facing.”

He said global economic trends and lowering interest rates from the Bank of Canada are positive signs. “We've been through some very difficult times. It's about communicating that the government can be a positive force for Canadians.”

— Talking to Trudeau: The PM and DPM have spent summer listening to Liberal MPs, both on the phone and at regional caucus gatherings.

“I’ve had one-on-one conversations just this summer with around 70 MPs,” Freeland said at the Cabinet retreat Halifax last month. “The message that I heard from caucus is we believe in the work that we are doing, and we know we need to be listening to Canadians.”

Bittle pinged us Sunday to say he remains optimistic. We asked about his conversations with the duo. Here's what he had to say:

“The tone was positive. The prime minister has always been one to listen whenever I've had an issue. This one came out of the blue. I didn't ask for the call, as I've done in the past.

“Both of them have an optimism and a drive.

“They understand the challenges we face as a party, but more importantly, the challenges Canadians face. We have to demonstrate it — we're the ones seeking reelection. There's an understanding of the reality of that.

“We've done a lot of good things, but that can be lost in the ‘Hey, you've done these 100 things. Can Canadians point to those things versus other governments who have done one thing and only talk about that one thing all the time?’

“It'll be an interesting caucus meeting.”

For your radar


FALL FREEZE — Here's a gossipy sideshow to launch a caucus retreat. Take it with an opposition-sized grain of salt, spread liberally by the Toronto Sun's BRIAN LILLEY.

Every prime minister has options when parliamentary affairs get chaotic and untenable.

If the timing is right, they can send voters to the polls. If they're drowning and need a calculated break, they can prorogue — a big ol' pause button on the daily grind.

→ Playbook-sized caveat: We haven't found a Liberal who thinks this is likely in the near future, though a small corner of social media wants the PM to use a reset as an exit strategy as DALTON MCGUINTY did in Ontario a dozen years ago.

— Prorogation (n.): The termination of a parliamentary session, which suspends the chamber but doesn't dissolve it.

When a session ends, in-progress business goes with it. Bills go bye-bye. Committees can't meet, and ongoing work stops in its tracks. When Parliament reconvenes, MPs can vote to reinstate legislation, but that's no guarantee — and most of the time, bills die on the vine.

Prorogation is often routine — an intentional resetting of a legislative agenda that could energize a tired government. But it's not always routine.

— Why are we talking about this? Some Conservative whisperers are certain the prime minister is about to use prorogation to buy himself a few weeks of peace. Parliament would return with a Speech from the Throne that sets Trudeau’s pre-election agenda.

Of course, a throne speech comes with a confidence vote that could trigger an election if the Liberals don't have the votes.

But Trudeau would control the timing and terms of that test instead of playing defense against a Conservative opposition motion engineered to bring him down.

— Stoker-in-chief: Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER seems to assume prorogation is coming. MRG, it should be said, has a habit of sowing similar speculative mischief.

— Why hit pause? Back in 2020, Trudeau prorogued and, as a consequence, put a halt to committee investigations into the WE Charity scandal that cost former Finance Minister BILL MORNEAU his job — and was consuming Ottawa whole. (Liberals defended the pause.)

Former PM STEPHEN HARPER controversially prorogued twice — once in 2008, to avoid a confidence vote when opposition parties formed an ill-fated coalition meant to replace the Tories; and once again in 2009, amid a scandal over treatment of Afghan detainees.

— A big reset comes with tradeoffs: If the PM pulled the plug on the first session of the 44th Parliament, his ministers would lose a pile of signature bills that legislate on cyber security, digital privacy and artificial intelligence, online harms, elections laws and — we saved this one for last — pharmacare.

→ The odds of this happening: Low (until they're not).

MEDIA ROOM

Jagmeet Singh gives remarks during a press conference.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will meet with his caucus this week in Montreal. | Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press

— A "most read" on POLITICO by our KYLE DUGGAN: Why Canada’s progressive party just dumped Trudeau.

— The Globe's BILL CURRY reports from the weekend shift: "NDP defends use of Palestinian flag on Montreal by-election flyer."

CHRISTIAN PAAS-LANG of CBC News confirms what ZI-ANN LUM shared with Playbook readers in May: MATTHIAS LÜTTENBERG and TJORVEN BELLMANN, a married couple with kids, are Germany’s new ambassadors-designate in Ottawa.

— Canada has become an exporter of a new kind of celebrity — far-right influencers, PressProgress editor LUKE LEBRUN writes in the Star. “When Canadians worry about ‘far-right populism’ or Trump-style politics, remember this is not exactly a foreign threat,” he warns. “The calls are coming from inside our own house.”

— The Globe's SHANNON PROUDFOOT dissects that viral moment between the prime minister and a steelworker.

— From our colleagues in Brussels: MARIO DRAGHI's report unleashed: 5 things to watch.

— “Getting public servants back into the office with the right balance of remote work has been a journey of massive upheaval, second-guessing and adjustment,” KATHRYN MAY writes of a work in progress. Your Playbook is all ears.

PROZONE


For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by KYLE DUGGAN and SUE ALLAN: Conversation starters for the Liberal retreat.

In other news for Pro readers: 

FILE - A Google sign hangs over an entrance to the company's new building, Sept. 6, 2023, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

Today in a federal courtroom, the U.S. Justice Department and a group of state attorneys general will try to prove Google illegally monopolizes the nearly $300 billion U.S. market for digital ads. | Peter Morgan, File/AP Photo

Biden administration launches its second big attack on Google.

7 financial policy stories to watch on Capitol Hill.

Foreign influence attempts are the new normal for American elections.

The Hague turns the screws on chips exports to China.

Lithium producers buckle up for a wild price ride.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to NDP MP NIKI ASHTON, Cabmin LAWRENCE MACAULAY (who celebrates at the Liberal caucus retreat), former Cabmins CHRIS ALEXANDER and JEAN AUGUSTINE.

HBD + 1 to LAURA LEBEL, policy director to MARC GOLD, the government rep in the Senate; ALYX HOLLAND, director of government and regulatory affairs at Sun Life Canada; and CHRIS DAY, president of Winston Wilmont.

Congrats: KAT CUPLINSKAS, deputy director of communications to Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, is now engaged to VASKEN VOSGUIAN, deputy chief of staff and director of parliamentary affairs to Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Noted: Public affairs adviser NIKKI HILL, with advice on X for campaign season in British Columbia: “Stay off this site and just go talk to people”... AARON WHERRY, making a simple enough request on LinkedIn: “If I had one wish, it would be for everyone to stop using the word ‘content.’” (Good luck.)

Spotted: A pair of high-flying aerobatic teams, parked at the Ottawa airport. The United States Air Force Thunderbirds and the Royal Air Force Red Arrows sat beside each other amid a weekend airshow in Gatineau.

New Jersey Gov. PHIL MURPHY, in Canada for meetings.

TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, the parliamentary secretary for Canadian Heritage, reminding a National Post editor who was critical of the Liberals that her newspaper "wouldn't be in business were it not for the subsidies that the government that you hate put in place."

Conservative MP SCOTT AITCHISON, sharing plans for the CBC building on Front Street in Toronto — and taking guff in his replies for one photo in particular.

At the BANFF FORUM in Yukon: JESSE MCCORMICK, BRAEDEN CALEY, JOHANNA MIZGAŁA and forum chair BRIAN KINGSTON.

ERIN O’TOOLE, introducing his daughter MOLLIE to Bubba’s poutine.

Brampton Mayor and former Conservative leadership candidate PATRICK BROWN, extending praise to the Liberals: “Minister of Public Safety DOMINIC LEBLANC is a man of his word.”

JAMIE LEE CURTIS at TIFF: “I met the prime minister last night … very intimidating. Literally, I think I curtseyed.”

Movers and shakers: Conservative Party President STEPHEN BARBER has joined StrategyCorp as a Winnipeg-based vice president.

SIMON KENNEDY, Canada's deputy minister of innovation, will retire Sept. 13.

CLAIRE SEABORN, former chief of staff to Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, joined the Canadian Climate Law Initiative.

In memoriam: Grand Chief CATHY MERRICK of the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs will lie in state at the Manitoba legislature following her sudden death on Friday. “She moved the needle in the direction of righteousness and justice and kindness, and also reconciliation," Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW said Saturday.

“Her advocacy of the disenfranchised was absolute and she let nothing or no one stand in the way of her demands for change,” NIIGAAN SINCLAIR writes in the Winnipeg Free Press.

TRIVIA


Friday's answer: There have been 13 minority governments at the federal level in Canada.

We received many different answers, so we double checked our math with historian J.D.M. STEWART: “That is the number I get as well,” he told us Sunday.

Props to DARRYL DAMUDE, ADAM ENKIN, GERMAINE MALABRE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, RAY DEL BIANCO and IAN GLYNWILLIAMS. 

Three quizmasters we missed Friday morning: JENN KEAY, BOB ERNEST and GANGA WIGNARAJAH.

Today’s question: How many ballots did it take ROBERT STANFIELD to pick up the votes needed to win the Progressive Conservative leadership on this date at Maple Leaf Gardens in 1967?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and KYLE DUGGAN.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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