| | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Until this summer, the current Biden administration NSC thought that it had a good shot at staying in place. | Aaron Schwartz/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Robbie Gramer, Eli Stokols, Emmy Martin, Erin Banco and Meridith McGraw Subscribe here | Email Eric In the next week or so, National Security Council staffers can expect to receive guidance from higher-ups about how to approach something that’s now inevitable: the transition to a new presidency. The Biden administration NSC’s transition work is running late compared to some past efforts. But there’s still plenty of time to prepare the memos, files and, eventually, meetings needed for such a handoff, whether it’s to a KAMALA HARRIS administration or one led by DONALD TRUMP. One big unknown? Whether Trump’s team will cooperate if he wins in November. In 2016, the Obama administration’s NSC was drafting documents by the summer for its successor. The administration’s overall transition work, along with the GEORGE W. BUSH-BARACK OBAMA baton exchange, are seen as gold standards by experts on government processes. But Trump’s 2016 transition team — whose creation was bungled from the start — often did not show up or paid little heed to the materials the Obama team prepared across government bodies. That includes at the NSC, where a smooth transition is arguably the most important of all because of the gravity of the issues dealt with and because so many new officials can start quickly because they do not need Senate confirmation. “We’d done extensive preparation for them. There was absolutely no evidence that any of them had read any of it,” one Obama NSC staffer told POLITICO for a 2019 story. Trump transition spokespersons did not respond to a request for comment. A senior Biden administration official who laid out some of the forthcoming plans declined to discuss “hypotheticals” about Trump, saying only, “Our focus is on ensuring a smooth transition.” Until this summer, the current Biden administration NSC thought that it had a good shot at staying in place, so comparisons to Bush and Obama’s definite exits aren’t entirely apt. Laws from 2010 and 2015 made the transition process more formal. And there’s an argument that the only fair comparison is to 2012, when a potential Obama to MITT ROMNEY transition loomed. Administration officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, were unwilling to delve into a 2012 comparison, and there was little reporting at the time on the government-side of the transition. But there’s been no indication the current administration is behind when compared to the 2012 process, and the 2015 legal changes may actually have helped speed things. The Trump to JOE BIDEN transition was, well, compressed because the ousted incumbent tried to cling to office, an effort that included the violence of Jan. 6, 2021. Current NSC officials have been holding high-level discussions on transition planning, in coordination with the Office of Management and Budget and the General Services Administration. But the nitty gritty will be handled within each NSC directorate, with staffers expected to prepare memos for the incoming administration on everything from logistics, such as how to convene an inter-agency meeting, to the latest on U.S. strategy on various wars. Trump is eligible to receive intelligence briefings now that he’s the GOP nominee, but he’s reported to be declining them, saying he doesn’t want to be accused of leaks. Harris receives such briefings by virtue of her position as vice president. A Harris win could be a rare opportunity for this NSC to hand off to a group that’s an extension of the existing order — and take stock, said MAX STIER, the head of the Partnership for Public Service, which includes the Center for Presidential Transition. “What is possible in the context of a transition to a Harris team is to examine how the national security apparatus worked, what did work, what didn't work, and especially given the new threats and the changes in the world, how would you do this better?“ Stier said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Capabilities from Every Angle. Deterrence at Every Turn.
Block 4 modernization is the most significant evolution of F-35 capabilities to date, including increased missile capacity, advanced electronic warfare capabilities and improved target recognition. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GUESS WHO’S (LIKELY) COMING TO UNGA? Harris is considering showing up in New York during this year’s U.N. General Assembly, a person familiar with the Democratic nominee’s plans tells our own ELI STOKOLS. We’ll see if she decides to do it, but it’s certainly a tempting campaign move for the Democratic presidential nominee. Scores of world leaders attend UNGA. Harris can arrange meetings with key figures and burnish her foreign policy credentials, even if it’s just through releasing photos of meets-and- greets. New York also is a key donor base, so count on some fundraising. Spokespersons for Trump did not respond to questions about whether he would attend the global gathering. But in 2016, both he and HILLARY CLINTON showed up and met with world leaders including Egyptian dictator ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI. FROM BIBI’S POV: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU is swatting away criticism from Biden that he is not doing enough to secure a cease-fire and hostage release deal with the Palestinian militant group Hamas. In an interview with Fox and Friends, Netanyahu said that the blame for any delays in reaching a deal falls on Hamas, which he claimed “is not there with a deal.” He added that “there’s not a deal in the making” and his government will “do everything we can to get them to the point where they do make a deal” and that the Israeli people support his approach. But protests against the government still rage in Israeli cities, as the Israeli government faces sharp domestic outcry following the execution of six Israeli hostages. International mediators are continuing to express confidence that a deal is still in reach. “What I can reiterate is what you heard clearly from the president and the secretary of State, which is that the government of Israel, including the prime minister, have committed to the bridging proposal that was laid out by the president,” State Department spokesperson VEDANT PATEL said on CNN today. “We're eager to keep working to get this across the finish line. We continue to believe that it is possible.” NICARAGUA PRISONER DEAL: The White House announced today that it reached a deal with Nicaraguan leader DANIEL ORTEGA that will see Managua release more than 100 political prisoners. Guatemala will accept 135 political prisoners while they go through the immigration process to enter the United States. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State ERIC JACOBSTEIN told reporters today that Washington offered Managua nothing in exchange for releasing the political prisoners. Guatemala also received nothing in exchange for its participation in the deal, he said. In statements, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN hailed the deal and called on the Ortega regime, which has been accused of increased authoritarianism and human rights violations, to stop detaining dissidents and government critics. DOCUMENTING THE YAZIDI GENOCIDE: Forensic experts have just two weeks to unearth mass graves and document the details of ISIS’ 2014 campaign of genocide against the Yazidi people in northern Iraq before the government disbands a U.N. investigative mission. As The New York Times’ EVE SAMPSON reports, Baghdad has given international forensic experts that amount of time to excavate mass graves in northern Iraq, making it almost certain that U.N. investigators will be able to open all the burial sites in the region and amass needed evidence to hold ISIS perpetrators accountable. Still, researchers are working through the extreme heat in their efforts to document as much as possible. The effort comes as Iraq’s central government seeks to quickly turn the page from one of its darkest chapters. Baghdad has moved to close Yazidi refugee and displaced person camps, execute ISIS perpetrators and end the U.N. mission to unearth what happened to more than 2,700 missing Yazidis during the height of the Islamist group’s power in the region. The Iraqi government has been working to move past the U.S. occupation of the country in recent years, including arguing to the U.S. that ISIS no longer presents a threat to regional stability and working to reconfigure the U.S.-Iraq bilateral relationship. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments this week at ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | RUSSIAN SEMICONDUCTOR SCRUTINY: Lawmakers are holding a hearing next week with representatives of major American semiconductor companies as questions mount about how Russian weapons manufacturers have evaded U.S. export controls and acquired chips. Per Reuters’ DAVID SHEPARDSON, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations will hear testimony from the executives of four companies — Analog Devices, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Texas Instruments — on Tuesday over why their chips keep appearing in Russian weapons used on the battlefield in Ukraine. That’s despite export controls intended to restrict Russian access to U.S. semiconductor technology. Intel declined to comment when reached by Reuters. The other companies did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
| | | |   | | | | | THE NAVY’S VIRGINIA SUB WOES: The Navy needs $2 billion to clear a gap needed to produce two new Virginia-class nuclear submarines, and as our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report, the ongoing government funding battles could sink their progress. If Congress passes a continuing resolution to tide over government spending through the election, it would carry over the previous year's funding, and the military can't start new programs or ramp up existing ones. That is, unless Congress approves exemptions, known as “anomalies.” The White House wants one for the subs, which they argue are essential for the Navy’s strategic aims. The program is controversial, as production delays and ballooning costs have made the effort to build two nuclear subs more expensive. But lawmakers seem poised to grant the anomaly, as they want to alleviate a growing shortfall of submarines due to retirements and the AUKUS submarine pact with Australia and the United Kingdom.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CALLING OUT CAIRO: A group of congressional Democrats are reupping calls to bar hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military assistance to Egypt, our own ROBBIE GRAMER writes in. In the letter to SecState Blinken, the senators led by Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) note the country’s authoritarian bent and human rights abuses. They argue that holding Egypt accountable for progress on human rights is critical to advancing long-term U.S. interests in Egypt and American credibility on human rights globally.” The letter ramps up pressure on the Biden administration to address Egyptian President el-Sisi on his dismal human rights record, even as top administration officials try to work with Cairo to negotiate the deal between Hamas and Israel. The United States gives roughly $1.3 billion in foreign military aid to Egypt per year, of which around $320 million could be withheld over human rights concerns if the administration chooses. It also follows the conviction of former Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ in August on charges he took bribes in exchange for advancing the Egyptian government’s interests from his powerful perch in Congress. The Egyptian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.
| | PRESSURE FOR MORE VENEZUELA PRESSURE: The leader of Venezuela’s opposition movement and her allies in the U.S. Congress are putting pressure on the U.S. government to apply more force towards the government of NICOLÁS MADURO to accept the results of the country’s July 28 election. At a virtual press briefing today, opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO called on the Biden administration to impose new sanctions against Maduro and his allies, as a way to force the government to enter negotiations. “If you don't have pressure on different aspects of the structure of the regime, then what are you going to negotiate?” she told reporters. “People who are committing crimes should be held accountable.” Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, a group of Democrats wrote to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON today, urging him to put bipartisan legislation on Venezuela to a vote on the House floor. In the letter, the Democrats, led by Rep. DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ (D-Fla.) wrote that “if House Republicans are serious about countering migration and standing up to dictators, Speaker Johnson must bring bipartisan legislation to the floor to punish human rights abuses and promote a peaceful transfer of power.”
| | — New Zealand’s Maori people crowned NGA WAI HONO I TE PO PAKI as the leader of the country’s indigenous community. Her ascension to the throne following her father’s death comes amid heightened tensions with New Zealand’s conservative government, which wants to roll back programs to remedy historical injustices against the Maori. — French President EMMANUEL MACRON named former chief Brexit negotiator MICHEL BARNIER as the country’s next prime minister. The appointment of Barnier, a former cabinet minister and member of the center-right Les Républicains, will break a two-month political stalemate in Paris after no political party gained an absolute majority of seats in the country’s National Assembly in July’s snap legislative elections. — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY named former top aide ANDRII SYBIHA as the country’s next foreign minister. Sybiha, a former deputy chief of staff to Zelenskyy, was named first deputy minister for foreign affairs in April. — ELISE LABOTT will be the Edward R. Murrow press fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is currently an adjunct professor at American University’s School of International Service and writes “Cosmopolitics” on Substack.
| | — ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: What the national-security Democrats want — HANS KRISTENSEN, MATT KORDA, ELIANA JOHNS, and MACKENZIE KNIGHT, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: Indian nuclear weapons, 2024 — BEATRIZ BORGES, Americas Quarterly: The UN’s role in addressing Venezuela’s crisis
| | — Atlantic Council. 9 a.m.: Countering China's inroads into the Pacific islands — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: How foreign adversaries infiltrate U.S. campuses — Freedom House, 11 a.m.: The state of world democracy: A retrospective on elections around the world — Freedom House and the Trinity Forum, 1:30 p.m.: A book discussion on "Ending Persecution: Charting the Path to Global Religious Freedom." Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has not yet made transition plans for the day we vote her out. Thanks to our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who we would anoint president for life.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovation at the Speed of Lightning
The F-35’s Block 4 upgrades provide enhanced capabilities ensuring those we serve employ the most survivable, interoperable and connected aircraft needed to win in highly contested environments. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
