The 2024 presidential campaign is about to get rocked by a labor dispute involving tens of thousands of workers at more than a dozen of the country's largest ports. Workers represented by the International Longshoremen's Association — led by the powerful and mercurial Harold Daggett — will go on strike next week if they don’t agree to a new contract with the United States Maritime Alliance, a collection of companies that oversee operations at ports from New York to Houston. A lengthy shutdown would delay imports of grocery staples and cars, potentially costing the U.S. billions of dollars in economic activity each day. The longer it takes for the ILA and USMX to reach an agreement, the more likely it is that consumer prices start to climb. And if consumers start getting sticker shock in the final days of the presidential campaign, it could scramble Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s attempts to sway voters on how their platforms will stabilize prices, your host reports. The risks to Harris are more obvious: The White House says President Joe Biden will not intervene to stop the strike (that was never in doubt) and even though administration officials are talking to the union and USMX “directly [about] being at the table and negotiating in good faith fairly and quickly,” Daggett has provided no indication that he’s eager to do Biden or Harris any favors. (In fact, he recently put out a release describing a productive 90-minute meeting he had with Trump in Mar-a-Lago). If higher shipping costs and delays cause prices to rise in the near term, it could dent voter sentiment on the economy just as it has started to meaningfully improve. That could make it harder for Harris’s recent barrage of pro-labor, pro-capitalist and anti-price-gouging economic messaging to resonate. Any chaos or economic blowback will likely be enough for Trump to go on the offensive. The strike “will give voters, particularly union voters, yet another reason to want a historically successful dealmaker back in the White House,” said Jonathan Berry, a former top Labor Department official under Trump who is now a managing partner at the law firm Boyden Gray. But even though Trump has had some success in amassing support among the rank-and-file, an ILA strike could prove to be a litmus test for his actual views on the labor movement. Setting aside Daggett’s comments about their meeting, we’re only a few weeks removed from a livestream with Elon Musk where Trump advocated the idea of firing striking workers. That’s the sort of side-by-side comparison that Harris allies will relish (particularly those in swing states). “If I were a union member, and a strike was forthcoming, I think I would go out and vote for the people who support my right to do that,” said North Carolina state Rep. Deb Butler, a Democrat whose district includes the Wilmington port. “Many national figures, Donald Trump included, would not set foot on a picket line.” IT’S FRIDAY — There’s an Oakland A’s snowglobe on my desk that was once part of an Oakland Tribune-branded giveaway. Both are gone as of today, so now it’s a reminder of the consequences of greed. On that note, unless your name is John Fisher, I hope you have a wonderful weekend. Have thoughts or tips? Send ‘em my way to ssutton@politico.com.
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