2026 governor field mum on ballot fights

Inside the Golden State political arena
Oct 09, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Dustin Gardiner, Christopher Cadelago and Lara Korte

A collage of Rob Bonta, Toni Atkins, Eleni Kounalakis, Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra and Tony Thurmond.

Illustration by Bill Kuchman/POLITICO (source images via AP, Getty Images)

THE BUZZ: DUCKING AHEAD — Ambitious Democrats are jonesing to get an early start on the 2026 race for California governor, an election that’s about 25 months away.

But taking a side on ballot measures facing voters this November? Ehh, not so much.

Playbook asked the five candidates running to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom — who’s termed out in two years — where they stand on the year's most consequential initiatives, from increasing drug-crime penalties to easing statewide limits on rent-control.

Only one contender, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, took a position on all 10 statewide questions.

CA ballot measure chart

The candidates were especially reluctant to pick a side on Proposition 36, which would increase prison sentences for drug crimes and serial theft. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former state Senate leader Toni Atkins and state schools superintendent Tony Thurmond wouldn’t say how they’d vote on the measure.

Their fence-sitting suggests they see little upside in weighing in on an issue that has pitted some big-city mayors, who are in favor of Prop 36, against Newsom and top Democrats in the Legislature.

Newsom has warned Prop 36 would return California to overly punitive 1980s-era “war on drugs” policies. But public polling shows voters overwhelmingly support the measure, which was written by prosecutors and would roll back parts of a landmark 2014 initiative that reduced prison sentences.

Only one governor hopeful, former state Controller Betty Yee, said she opposes Prop 36. She pointed to a package of anti-theft bills lawmakers passed this year and argued that the ballot measure would “result in increased state prison and local county costs.”

Attorney General Rob Bonta, a likely candidate who has yet to say if he'll run for governor, hasn’t given his opinion on the vast majority of measures this year. A spokesperson said Bonta, like other AGs before him, doesn’t weigh in on most state propositions because he writes their ballot titles and summaries.

PROP 32 — All five of the declared candidates did find one area where they agree: raising California’s minimum wage to $18 per hour. Their support for Proposition 32 isn't surprising given the state’s deep-blue electorate and the influence of powerful labor unions.

PROP 33 — Three of the candidates — Kounalakis, Atkins and Villaraigosa — oppose Proposition 33, an AIDS Healthcare Foundation-backed measure that would allow cities to enact rent control for newer apartments. Polling suggests voters are closely divided over the measure, but many prominent Democrats warn it could give cities the power to effectively block housing construction.

PROP 34 — Another measure candidates avoided was Proposition 34, led by the California Apartment Association. It is aimed at limiting the political activities of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation and its polarizing founder, Michael Weinstein, which is behind a rent control measure on the ballot. Yee, Atkins and Thurmond did not take a position on Prop 34. Villaraigosa opposed it and Kounalakis said she supported it.

The gubernatorial hopefuls weren’t the only candidates reluctant to weigh in on controversial ballot measures.

Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Adam Schiff declined to state his positions on the full ballot and he said he was still studying Prop 36. Meanwhile, his Republican challenger, Steve Garvey, said backing Prop 36 was a top priority.

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Speaking at the California Economic Summit around 10:50 a.m.

CAMPAIGN YEAR

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, left, D-Calif., and Republican Steve Garvey, both candidates for the U.S. Senate, participate in a debate Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve Garvey, both candidates for the U.S. Senate, debated on Tuesday. | AP

MERCY RULE — Well, it was no Padres-Dodgers game.

In the final debate for California’s open Senate seat, former Dodgers All-Star Steve Garvey tried repeatedly to notch home runs against his Democratic opponent, Rep. Adam Schiff, but kept striking out.

Garvey tried to go after Schiff for his role in impeaching former President Donald Trump — something the congressmember has proudly touted for many years. He also attempted to paint Schiff as a useless career politician, who, despite being in office for 24 years, had done little to help Californians.

Schiff — who is nearly 20 points ahead of Garvey and spending much of his time stumping for fellow Democrats — was mostly laid back. He did manage to land some zingers, including calling Garvey a “MAGA mini-me in a baseball uniform,” but for the most part, Schiff seemed to let his opponent’s answers speak for themselves.

The baseball star struggled to give detailed answers to questions on housing, the border, and economic issues, repeatedly returning to stump-speech platitudes about the free market and building consensus. When asked to clarify his positions on Medicare and Social Security, Garvey changed the subject, claiming Schiff had insulted his family by insinuating he grew up rich and accusing the congressmember of “disparaging” his mother.

The debate did give us a better sense of where Schiff stands on some important topics, including water usage and artificial intelligence.

The Democrat said his principal concern with AI is its effect on the American worker.

“Life has gotten hard for working families,” Schiff said. “It’s not that they’re not working, unemployment is very low, but because of globalism, because of automation, people are working harder than ever and still struggling to get by. AI threatens to accelerate that.”

When asked about the water crisis and agriculture, he also said he would not favor easing environmental regulations to get more water to farmers.

“What I would do is what Sen. [Dianne] Feinstein did, which is sit down with stakeholders, as I’ve been doing over the last year — make sure that I understand the issues and the trade-offs, and look for those opportunities where we can have a win, both for our farms, our cities and our environment,” he said.

HATE ON THE TRAIL — State Sen. Dave Min on Tuesday decried racism and xenophobia after some of his campaign signs in Huntington Beach were graffitied with an anti-Asian slur.

“Hate of any kind, directed against anyone, is unacceptable. Full stop,” Min, the son of Korean immigrants, said in a statement. “But unfortunately, we have seen a sharp rise in hate in recent years due to the xenophobia and racism that have come to define Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.”

Min is running against Republican Scott Baugh in the battleground Orange County seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. His campaign posted footage of the defaced signs and said it had filed a report with local police.

Tim Walz takes a photo with Fiona Ma and Eleni Kounalakis

State Treasurer Fiona Ma took a selfie with Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz during his visit to Sacramento on Tuesday. | Lara Korte/POLITICO

LOVE FEST — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s brief stop in Sacramento on Tuesday included a whole lot of flattery for his California host.

Walz, who landed around 12:30 p.m., spent the afternoon up in Fair Oaks at Newsom’s home. According to pool reports, a couple dozen people gathered around in the backyard — many, fanning themselves as temps neared 100 degrees! — to hear the VP nominee praise the Golden State and its governor.

“We don’t have a more articulate and joyful warrior in messaging and policy across this country than Gavin Newsom,” Walz said. “And Gov. Newsom finds a way to help across the country.”

A fundraiser at the governor’s house meant reporters also got a rare glimpse inside Newsom’s abode. While being sequestered from the party in a separate sitting room, poolers reported seeing a collection of hardcover antique books, including:

— The Georgics
— The Works of Milton
— “Bestiary: An Anthology of Poems about Animals”
— The two-volume Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant
— Nabokov’s four-volume translation of Pushkin’s Eugene Onegin
— Rabelais, Gargantua et Pantagruel
— The Odes of Horace
— Petrarch’s sonnets
— A very thorough collection of Balzac
— The Confessions of Saint Augustine

ON THE AIRWAVES

SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 24 :  San Francisco City Hall is seen October 24, 2003 in San Francisco. As Mayor Willie Brown visited Asia on October 24, mayor-for-the-day Supervisor  Chris Daly secretly appointed and swore in two environmentalists to the city's Public Utilities Commission, then announced the appointments on official letterhead he had drawn up for the occasion. Brown cut his   trip short to return to San Francisco to deal with the coup. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

San Francisco City Hall. | Getty Images

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: GRIDLOCK BY THE BAY — Proponents of a San Francisco ballot measure to trim the number of citizen commissions will launch a splashy TV-ad campaign today that pokes fun at “the most bureaucratic city in America.”

The ads note San Francisco has 130 boards, commissions and advisory bodies — compared with just 49 in Los Angeles. Humorous images of distracted and snoozing board members (played by male actors) flash across the screen as a narrator rails against the city’s byzantine system.

“Commission after commission. Talk, talk, talk, but no action,” the ad states.

The nearly $1 million TV blitz is funded by Together SF Action, a centrist advocacy group funded heavily by wealthy tech execs. The group is urging city voters to back Proposition D, which would limit the city to 65 commissions and give the mayor broad powers to appoint commission members.

ANOTHER SCOOP: MARRIAGE DO-OVER — Proponents of a ballot measure that would enshrine marriage equality in the California Constitution plan to launch their first TV ad today — a spot that aims to help heal historic wounds in the LGBTQ community.

The ad for Proposition 3, which organizers exclusively shared with Playbook, includes images of couples who reflect a variety of races and genders. It’s an intentional strategy on the part of supporters, who’ve sought to make the campaign a do-over from prior fights over “gay marriage” — which often divided activists who felt the campaigns prioritized images of white and cisgender couples over people of color and a wider spectrum of genders.

“Everyone, every race and gender, should have the freedom to marry who they love,” the ad states. Organizers said the ad will debut in five languages and is part of a seven-figure statewide buy.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

SLOW BURN — Firefighting unions are facing the same divide on national politics between leadership and rank-and-file as other unions. In California, they’re also facing climate change and Trump’s anti-California threats. The question is whether that will or won’t be enough for a Harris endorsement. Read last night's California Climate for more.

TOP TALKERS

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 16: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) arrives for a Congressional Progressive Caucus news conference at the U.S. Capitol on May 16, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Congressional Progressive Caucus unveiled their agenda for policies they plan to push next year if Democrats win the 2024 election including a higher minimum wage, strengthened antitrust laws and   new federal benefits for seniors on Social Security and parents raising kids. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Oakland Rep. Barbara Lee. | Getty Images

ATTACK THE RULEBOOK — Rep. Barbara Lee is the latest Oakland-area politician arguing the push to recall Mayor Sheng Thao is anti-democratic. “I've always opposed recalls,” Lee wrote in an X post this week. “They're undemocratic, costly, and chaotic.”

Lee joins a small but growing cohort opposing Thao’s recall on the basis that recalls — added to the California Constitution in 1913 to expand direct democracy — can be weaponized by rich people who want to remove a politician from office and are willing to spend big bucks to prop up a campaign to do so.

Thao has made the argument a cornerstone of her anti-recall effort. “If they’re just done by sore losers with their rich friends, that is a disrespect to democracy,” campaign spokesperson William Fitzgerald told reporters last weekend. He declined to say whether California’s recall process should be reformed.

WHY TRUMP’S STUMPING IN COACHELLA — It’s a “point of personal pride” and a matter of political messaging, a Republican strategist close to the Trump campaign told the Los Angeles Times yesterday. He said the Palm Desert visit gives Trump an opportunity to attack Democrats on border policy, court deep-pocketed donors and prove he’s “not leaving anything on the table,” even if California’s 54 electoral votes are all but guaranteed to Kamala Harris.

AROUND THE STATE

— Thieves stole Dodgers’ pitcher Walker Buehler’s watch off his arm in a “snatch and grab” robbery last month at a Los Angeles-area horse track, local police say. (Associated Press)

— San Francisco’s school district has released the list of 11 schools slated for closure. The move is expected to relocate nearly 2,000 students and save the cash-strapped district up to $22 million. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— A national housing profit alleges more than 200 California landlords illegally refused to rent units to people with Section 8 housing vouchers in a discrimination complaint filed this week. (Los Angeles Times)

PLAYBOOKERS

PEOPLE MOVES — Anastasia Foster, a former campaign staffer for Adam Schiff, has taken a position in government affairs with the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator.

Tahra Jirari is now director of economic analysis for the Chamber of Progress, where she'll focus on rapid-response tech and economics commentary. She most recently worked for the carbon capture company Captura.

BIRTHDAYS — Enrique Robles, district chief of staff for Rep. Judy Chu … Julia SchechterValerie (Berg) Holland

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Tuesday): Stefan Simchowitz ... Edward Zwick

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

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