3 major pitfalls for Tim Walz and JD Vance

How race and identity are shaping politics, policy and power.
Oct 01, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO The Recast Newsletter Header

By Brakkton Booker, Gloria Gonzalez, Natalie Fertig and Jesse Naranjo

What up, Recast fam. On today’s agenda:

  • How the VP candidates may navigate tricky topics at tonight’s debate.
  • Survivors of nuclear testing visited the Hill to lobby Mike Johnson.
  • Montana tribes sue two counties ahead of a critical Senate election.

Photo illustration of torn-paper edge on side-by-side photos of Tim Walz and JD Vance speaking into microphones.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance are set to face off in the vice presidential debate Tuesday night. | POLITICO illustration/Photos by AP

Tonight's 90-minute face-off between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz could be the final time Americans see anyone from the opposing presidential tickets in the same room before Election Day — given that there's no other scheduled debate.

That ramps up the pressure for both men to not just land rhetorical jabs and paint each other as “unfit for office,” but also to avoid delivering a subpar performance in the critical closing stretch of the campaign.

There are a number of minefields they’ll need to navigate, from Walz’s military record to Vance’s past dislike for Trump. But The Recast is watching for three particular culture war issues tonight: how Vance navigates his unsubstantiated claims against Haitian migrants, how Walz addresses his handling of the George Floyd protests, and whether “childless cat ladies” comes back up, as the Trump-Vance campaign struggles to win over more women.

We asked half a dozen political strategists and activists how the vice presidential candidates should handle these hot-button topics on stage. Here’s what they said.

THE HAITIAN MIGRANT “CRISIS”

Both Vance and Donald Trump have attacked Haitian migrants in an attempt to argue the current administration is exacerbating the immigration crisis. They’ve repeatedly riled up their base with unsubstantiated claims of Haitians hunting pets in the majority-white town of Springfield, Ohio — and even drawn the ire of Ohio’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, for doing so.


 

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With this being the most intense culture war issue of the moment, there is little chance CBS moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan will pass up an opportunity for the nominees to clash over it.

The Walz view: The Democrat will likely argue Trump and Vance are fanning racist stereotypes and pivot to whose border policies are better, knocking the Republicans’ plan to launch the largest deportation in American history.

Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, who worked on Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, is giddy at the prospect of this topic coming up. As she sees it, Vance has done nothing but endanger his own constituents. She wants Walz to hit his opponent on that point while playing up Democrats’ recent wins on the border.

Church congregants applaud Haitian community members in neighboring pews.

Central Christian Church congregants stand to applaud members of the Haitian community during service Sept. 15 in Springfield, Ohio. | Jessie Wardarski/AP

“Tim Walz can turn to him and say, ‘You don't think that the Biden-Harris administration has done anything on the border? Crossings today are lower than they were when Donald Trump was in office.’ And what is he going to say to that?” Cardona asked.

The Vance view: Jane Timken, a former chair of the Ohio Republican Party, said immigration is likely one of Vance’s strongest grounds for attack — even if he admitted to CNN last month he’s not above embellishing stories to bring attention to the issue.

She’s not especially worried about Walz painting Vance as a racist.

“JD is also in an interracial marriage … has biracial children, [so] I don't think it lands,” she said, pointing to a 2022 Senate debate, when Democrat Tim Ryan accused Vance of supporting the “great replacement theory.” The Republican countered at the time by talking about his own family.

“I don't think it's racist to point out the effects of this mass migration generally on American communities,” Jessica Vaughn, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, tells The Recast.

She thinks Vance should pummel Walz for Democrats’ overreliance on Temporary Protected Status, a program that gives migrants from countries in chaos short-term permission to work and live in the U.S. without fear of deportation. Instead, she claims, Democrats are using it as a form of executive amnesty.

THE 2020 GEORGE FLOYD PROTESTS

Minnesota state troopers in riot gear walk through wall of smoke.

Minnesota State Police officers approach a crowd of demonstrators protesting the death of George Floyd in police custody in on May 30, 2020, in Minneapolis. | Julio Cortez/AP

Vance wasted no time criticizing Walz for his handling of massive protests following George Floyd’s murder. Mere hours after Kamala Harris selected the Minnesota governor as her running mate, Vance said he “allowed rioters to burn down Minneapolis.”

It was a tumultuous time for Walz, who eventually authorized the largest law enforcement deployment in state history — an operation that included more than 700 National Guardsmen — to contain the demonstrations. But it came after days of unrest that led to several buildings being looted and destroyed, including a police precinct that was set ablaze.

The Walz view: Yohuru Williams believes Walz exercised appropriate caution, pointing to several deadly clashes in the 1960s, when governors used National Guard troops to break up racial protests.

“Walz was in the National Guard so part of the argument he can make as a former guardsman is … that he understands the awesome power of the guard and what that [represents] in American history,” said Williams, an activist and founding director of the Racial Justice Initiative at the University of St. Thomas, which is in Minnesota.

The Vance view: “I think that Walz wants to paint Vance and Trump as chaotic,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “And there's nothing more chaotic than what happened in Minneapolis under Governor Walz’s watch.” (Walz himself described the city’s initial response as an “abject failure.”)

Still, Conant said, belaboring the issue could just leave the Republican exposed to counterattacks: “I think Walz’s response is ... ‘Look, when we had rioters in the streets, I did something about it. Unlike President Trump, who stood by while his supporters ransacked the Capitol.’”

“CHILDLESS CAT LADIES”

JD Vance holds hands outstretched at campaign rally.

Vance speaks at a campaign rally Saturday in Newtown, Pennsylvania. | Laurence Kesterson/AP

Yes, it’s the comment that haunts Vance, one he made in a 2021 Fox News interview to describe powerful women in the Democratic Party. Though the GOP’s veep nominee has attempted to soften the quip — explaining it away as a “sarcastic comment I made years ago” — Democrats have used it to energize their base. (Both Oprah Winfrey and Taylor Swift boast that they’re card-carrying members of this squad.)

The Walz view: Though the Democrat largely is planning to avoid Vance’s personal controversies and keep the focus on Trump (as our Playbook colleagues reported), some strategists hope Walz knocks Vance on this point, as the Republican ticket struggles to make up their polling deficit with women voters.

“I hope he eviscerates him,” Cardona, the Democratic strategist, said. She anticipates the governor will cast the first-term senator as too radical and callous to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

The Vance view: Timken — who praised Vance’s debate skills after having shared a stage with him as they competed for the Ohio Senate seat two years ago — doesn’t want the candidates to relitigate this topic too much.

“It's not helpful,” she said. “My hope is that when [Vance is] talking, he should think of it as if he's talking to his mom or sister or his wife.”


 

A PUSH FOR SURVIVORS OF NUCLEAR TESTING 

Teresa Leger Fernandez speaks beside Carol Etcitty-Roger at news conference on Capitol Hill.

New Mexico Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez speaks beside Navajo Nation member Carol Etcitty-Roger during a Sept. 24 news conference on Capitol Hill. | Jose Luis Magana/AP

The 37-hour bus ride from New Mexico to Washington, D.C., was difficult for members of the Laguna Pueblo, Navajo Nation and other tribes, some of whom are elderly and dealing with cancer.

But last week, they traveled from their homes across the country with one goal: to implore Speaker Mike Johnson to allow a vote on legislation expanding benefits for individuals affected by radioactive contamination, our Gloria Gonzalez writes.

On the Hill, they held demonstrations and candlelight vigils, met with legislative staffers and shared their stories. Navajo Nation member Carol Etcitty-Roger talked about her father Roy, who was affected by radiation after working in an Arizona mine, and her own battles with cancer.

The context: In June, the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act expired despite widespread bipartisan support. The Senate passed an expansion bill led by Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) on a 69-30 vote in March — but it stalled in the House.

The Hawley-Luján bill would have extended the existing program to compensate people for health care and other costs related to atmospheric nuclear testing and uranium industry employment. It also would have expanded coverage to include those initially excluded by RECA, such as New Mexico residents living downwind of the Trinity test.

RECA supporters in the House believe they have the votes to pass the expansion bill. At a press conference last week, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.) said “there is no Republican and Democratic divide on this.”

But they need Johnson to schedule the vote. And now, with lawmakers out on recess through the election, they’re channeling their efforts toward the lame duck session.

Johnson’s office did not respond to requests for comment, but he reportedly has concerns about the $50 billion price tag.

“I would just say cost should be no barrier,” Hawley said. “There are numerous ways to get this done.”


 

TRIBES SUE TWO MONTANA COUNTIES

A bison on a ranch inside the Fort Peck Indian Reservation in Montana.

An American bison owned by the combined Sioux and Assiniboine Indian Tribe is seen on their ranch inside the Fort Peck Indian Reservation in Montana in 2011. | Michael Albans/AP

Montana tribes are suing two counties ahead of the 2024 election over alleged voter disenfranchisement, our Natalie Fertig reports.

The lawsuit, filed Monday night and based on the precedent of the 2014 Wandering Medicine case, is crucial for a state where Native American turnout can decide whether Democratic Sen. Jon Tester keeps his seat — and, in turn, whether the Democratic Party keeps control of the upper chamber.

It asks for additional late registration and early-voting satellite offices to be set up in a handful of towns on the Fort Peck Indian Reservation, which straddles Roosevelt and Valley counties.

An affidavit filed with the lawsuit by Four Directions Native Vote consultant Bret Healy alleges both counties have failed to ensure their Indian populations have access to voting: Valley County offers just one 4 1/2-hour window on the reservation for late registration and early voting, and Roosevelt County only offers late registration and early voting in its county seat.

“The failure to open the satellite office is a denial of the equal right to vote and dilutes the voting strength of the Tribes’ members,” the suit reads. Both counties have yet to respond.


 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Eric Adams gives thumbs up while walking past photographers outside federal court.

Mayor Eric Adams departs Manhattan federal court after an appearance Friday in New York. | Yuki Iwamura/AP

ADAMS INDICTED — New York Mayor Eric Adams was indicted last week on federal charges tied to campaign donations and other perks provided by the Turkish government. He’s the first Big Apple exec in modern history to plead to a criminal charge while in office, our New York colleagues report. Adams maintains his innocence.

And more:

  • A top public safety adviser who was one of Adams’ closest — and most controversy-attracting — confidants, resigned last night, Sally Goldenberg, Joe Anuta and Jeff Coltin report
  • Harris appeared on the “All the Smoke” podcast/YouTube show, where she talked about her biracial identity, mental health for Black men and legalizing weed.
  • Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has a reputation as a hard-liner — but POLITICO’s Daniella Diaz discovered he’s playing up his bipartisan bona fides as he fights to keep his Senate seat.


 

TODAY’S CULTURE RECS

JIMMY TURNS 100: The White House is honoring Jimmy Carter’s birthday milestone with a North Lawn display.

SNL IS BACK ... All hail Maya Rudolph’s Kamala Harris impression.

... BUT NOT WITHOUT CONTROVERSY: Bowen Yang is now defending his jokes about Chappell Roan, who recently came under fire for refusing to endorse Harris.

FROM VANITY FAIR:Hollywood's Biggest Donald Trump Endorsement Might Be This Failed DC Superhero

Edited by Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz

 

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