BARELY PASSING: California voters in 2020 killed a statewide school bond for the first time in 26 years. It may not have been an aberration. The latest attempt to send billions of dollars to schools for facility repairs and construction is polling at just 52 percent among likely voters. That razor-thin advantage, within the margin of error, rattled the nerves of an education lobby that was virtually invincible at the ballot box for the better part of three decades. “There’s no room for complacency,” said Troy Flint, spokesperson for the California School Boards Association, which supports the bond, Proposition 2. “It's going to be a close decision.” Longtime California pollster Mark DiCamillo has warned that ballot measures typically need to enter Election Day with well over 50 percent support in order to pass, as some voters who say they’ll vote for propositions won’t. The lackluster numbers for Prop 2 have called into question whether the failed 2020 measure was simply the victim of extenuating circumstances, as had been widely assumed. That measure’s fall was blamed in part on its name, Proposition 13, which it shared with the popular 1978 cap on property taxes — possibly leading voters to think (incorrectly) that it would raise taxes. It also hit the ballot during a lower-turnout primary at the precipice of the coronavirus pandemic — which was stoking economic anxiety. Pollsters have tracked an enduring, rightward shift in California on pocketbook issues dating back to that time. But that doesn’t explain why Prop 2 was eight points behind Proposition 4, a climate bond of the same $10 billion size, in the most recent Public Policy Institute of California survey. The mere threat of failure underscores a broader image problem for schools. Federal and state education spending have spiked since the pandemic began. Yet, standardized test scores have not rebounded to where they were at that time, and voters in coastal areas such as San Francisco and Oakland are watching local officials consider closing schools as declining enrollment batters district finances. California’s birth rate is also declining, and its population is aging, a troubling trajectory for school bonds which enjoy the most support from parents of school-age children. “Older Californians, those without children in the household, they're much more likely to support Prop 4 than support Prop 2, said PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare, “so therein lies a challenge for the proponents of Prop 2.” Voter fatigue may also be setting in. Though California hasn’t passed an education bond since 2016, individual school districts have asked for funding on local ballots. Hundreds more are doing so this fall to raise matching funds they’d need to tap money generated by Prop 2. When voters are informed of what the measure would pay for, they tend to back it, said Yes on Prop 2 spokesperson Molly Weedn . But Weedn didn’t dispute that the race was tight and said the campaign's own internal polling has consistently shown support for the bond in the low- to mid- 50s. “We need to do as much as we can in these last few days,” she said. Weedn said the challenge lies in illustrating the real life consequences of the bond’s fate. Many voters are unaware that over a third of school facilities in the state are not meeting minimum standards, or that many are over 50 years old. Few know when the most recent school bond passed. Ballot language alone provides little of that context, and the title and summary of the school bond is even more “in the weeds” than its climate counterpart, said Sonoma State University professor David McCuan, who studies ballot measures. Although Weedn argued it was inappropriate to compare the two bonds on the ballot, it appears the campaign has made some efforts to attach itself to climate concerns. The Yes on Prop 2 campaign’s second round of digital advertising, which launched in late October, focused on how the bond would prepare schools for extreme heat and other effects of climate change in California. Polling shows climate change is one of the issues voters care about the most this cycle. It’s also the first time they’ll get to weigh in on a statewide climate bond. “There's been a lot of coverage about schools since the pandemic and the funds that schools have received, and one thing that perhaps gets lost is that these school facility funds are really separate from other funding streams,” said Flint. “An advantage that the climate measure has is that it's novel.” — with help from Will McCarthy and Alex Nieves IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
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