Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration and Harris campaign. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren The “October Surprise” is fast becoming an obsolete cliche of presidential politics. On the first day of the month, President JOE BIDEN and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS were already dealing with three new crises, all with the potential of jolting a presidential race between Harris and DONALD TRUMP that appears to be incredibly close. Biden and Harris spent much of Tuesday afternoon with national security aides in the Situation Room, monitoring Iran’s missile attack on Israel. The president also received a briefing on the devastation caused across the Southeast by Hurricane Helene. Oh, and tens of thousands of dockworkers went on strike this morning, when their contract expired. The confluence of fast-moving — and largely uncontrollable — events drove home the volatility of the moment. The campaign’s final five weeks likely won’t be marked by one “surprise” but by near constant chaos. Given how fast today’s news cycle moves, it’s also possible that all of this is long forgotten by Election Day. After all, the country has already absorbed two assassination attempts on Trump in the last three months. Iran’s strikes may turn out to be limited enough in scope that the Middle East can avoid an escalation of the conflict into a full-blown regional war. The dockworkers could be back to work in days with little disruption to the supply chain. Storm season may be close to winding down. But for now, there is an awful lot hanging in the balance. If war breaks out across the Middle East, it would likely draw American troops into the region and cast Biden’s foreign policy in a different light, underscoring his inability to broker a cease-fire deal and persuade Israel’s leaders to de-escalate. A prolonged strike at several of the country’s largest ports could drive up prices at the grocery store and harden Trump’s advantage with voters on pocketbook issues. Citing Biden’s deep belief in collective bargaining, the White House has made clear there is no plan to intervene in an effort to resolve the impasse. And Trump, who has a history of politicizing the federal government’s response to natural disasters, asserted during a trip to Georgia on Monday that Biden and Harris had denied the state disaster relief — even though Republican Gov. BRIAN KEMP made clear that was not at all the case. Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio), whose debate with Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ has been relegated to the background, will surely blame Biden and Harris for all of it. Asked about how worried Americans should be amid the three unresolved crises, press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE touted Biden’s years of experience in government and the White House. “This is where you see the leadership of a president,” she said at Tuesday’s press briefing. “This should send a message to Americans: It matters. It matters who sits behind that Resolute desk.” Similarly, DAVID AXELROD, a former senior adviser to President BARACK OBAMA, described the crises as “leadership moments” that present opportunities and challenges for candidates. “All that campaigns are is just one string of tests, and these are the hardest, responding to unscripted challenges,” he said. “[Harris] will be more fluent in what is actually happening than Trump, so she can go out there and look like someone ready to be commander in chief, where he would just go out and say, ‘This would have never happened if I were president.’” Harris’ team, which is eager to get her back on the campaign trail, is well aware of that dynamic given that many of her senior aides worked for Obama, who got a late boost during both of his presidential campaigns for his responses to major events. When the financial crisis occurred in September 2008, Obama was the calmer of the two candidates. After then-Sen. JOHN McCAIN remarked that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong,” Obama pounced on the line to cast the Republican as out of touch. And when McCain temporarily suspended his campaign, Obama did not, explaining that it was important for a president to be able to do more than one thing at a time. Four years later, Obama got a boost again when he traveled to New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy devastated the state’s coast, famously receiving an embrace from then-Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE that helped cast the president as a compassionate leader capable of transcending partisan divides. “It all comes down to which candidate looks cool, calm and smart in a crisis,” said MIKE DuHAIME, a GOP consultant in New Jersey and former Christie adviser. “Harris is a bit more of the challenger here so [she] will need to demonstrate her competence and judgment in real time when asked about these issues. Of course, if the Biden administration looks good or bad in a crisis, it reflects on Harris.” MESSAGE US — Are you BROOKS MEARS, chief of staff at the office of presidential personnel? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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