Bankers race toward the finish

Your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings.
Oct 25, 2024 View in browser
 
Global Playbook x IMF - World Bank Annual Meeting header

By Suzanne Lynch

Greetings from Washington where the annual IMF-World Bank meetings are racing toward the finish line.

Last night negotiators on the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), the IMF’S top advisory body, met for discussions about a summit communiqué. Don’t expect anything too earth-shattering however. Like many international bodies, the IMF and World Bank membership is deeply divided over some of the world’s biggest challenges, not least the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.

World divided:  Those divisions were on display at the G20 meeting Thursday at the IMF. The group did agree a joint statement, predicting a soft landing for the global economy and warning against protectionism, but omitted any mention of Russia’s war on Ukraine or the Middle East. But Brazil, which holds the presidency of the G20, issued a separate statement acknowledging divisions between participants about whether these topics should be seen as impacting the global economy (spoiler alert: they do).

Election watch: Meanwhile, election fever is continuing to dominate chatter on the sidelines of the meetings as the U.S. election goes down to the wire. Superstar Beyoncé, who was a no-show at the Democratic Convention despite the rumor-mill going into overdrive, is due to perform at a campaign rally with Kamala Harris today in her home town of Houston. Donald Trump is gearing up for a mega event in Madison Square Garden in New York Sunday. For more on why you shouldn’t be fooled by Trump’s detour from battleground states in the closing stretch of the campaign, read this piece by Lisa Kashinsky, Jessica Piper and Meredith McGraw.

UKRAINE IN FOCUS

G7 MEETING: G7 finance ministers meet this afternoon for their final gathering before the U.S. election with Ukraine topping the agenda. Also in attendance — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, central bank governors and Ukraine’s finance minister, Serhiy Marchenko.

Background: The U.S. and Europe have been struggling to agree on a $50 billion package for Ukraine based on the profits of frozen Russian assets that was agreed with much fanfare politically at the G7 summit in Italy in June. The U.S in particular was concerned about the EU’s obligation to renew the sanctions every six months. But in a breakthrough earlier this week, the U.S. confirmed that it would cough up the promised $20 billion.

Work-around:  The deal does not touch the confiscated Russian assets themselves, but the interest generated on them, estimated to be about $3 billion a year. This interest will be used to pay the loan — not G7 taxpayers.

Win for Ukraine: “I thank the United States and the entire G7,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address this week. Kyiv needs all the help it can get, amid widespread concern that a victory for Trump in the U.S. elections could put a brake on U.S. support for Ukraine.

North Korea escalation: The crunch moment for Ukraine as it awaits the result of the U.S. election comes as Ukraine’s military defense intelligence services said that units from North Korea have left their Russian training grounds and entered the zone of combat between Russian and Ukraine forces for the first time, Veronika Melkozerova reports.

In the bad books:  Relations between Ukraine and the IMF are at a low point over the fund’s planned visit to Moscow to assess the Russian economy last month. The IMF was forced to backtrack and “indefinitely postpone” the trip following outcry from a number of Ukraine’s allies.

Clean bill of health:  In its latest assessment, the IMF raised its economic growth prediction for Russia this year to 3.4 percent. Though it dropped its growth outlook for the country from 1.8 to 1.2 percent, the figures give a snapshot into the state of the Russian economy, which is ploughing its economic force into a war economy despite Western sanctions.

EUROPE’S TROUBLES

STUCK IN SECOND GEAR: There were sobering words for Europe on Thursday as the IMF delivered a damning analysis of the state of the European economy. “Europe has fallen behind;” “an underwhelming recovery” and income per capita that’s a “stunning 30 percent lower” than the U.S. These were some of the choice phrases used by Alfred Kammer , head of the Europe Department at the IMF in an update Thursday. And the kicker — it’s “completely under Europe’s control” to fix it, he declared.

Background:  The IMF’s warnings come amid a string of economic figures that have cast doubt on Europe’s economic recovery, even as inflation has come down. The IMF projected this week that the eurozone economy will grow by just 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, well behind the U.S. and China. In particular, Germany, the engine of economic growth in Europe, is acting as a drag on the European economy, with zero percent growth forecast for this year.

Sunny side up: In an interview with Global Playbook, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe, who leads the group of finance ministers of countries that use the euro currency, said that the European economy remains resilient.

“A few years ago at these meetings, people said that Europe was going to move at least into a recession, that our economies would not be able to cope with the big energy change that we would have to make due to the war on Ukraine,” he said. “In fact, Europe has avoided a recession. Any recession we’ve experienced has been technical in nature.”

Down but not out: But he accepts that challenges are there. “The new agenda for Europe, now that we have inflation down, is how we can increase our growth, and that is what we are all working on at the moment,” he said, noting that the European political system is due to start a new five-year cycle following the European election in June.

Keeping up with the Joneses:  “We have to have a renewed focus on competitiveness at an EU level,” he said, pointing to this year’s reports by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, which are expected to kickstart discussion at EU level about keeping Europe competitive, as it loses ground to the U.S. and China when it comes to industrial policy, innovation and growth.

Capital markets problem: As highlighted by the IMF this week, Europe has a huge problem when it comes to capital markets. Venture capital, for example, is about a quarter of the level of the U.S., productivity is much lower, while European consumers tend to save in low-interest deposit accounts rather than invest in the stock market.

Donohoe said that progress is being made. “For me, 2025 is a critical period for the future of our capital markets, for the steps that we’re willing to take,” he said, to deepen the single market. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has dubbed her next five-year term as “the time of investment.”

Trade warning:  Like all elected European officials gathering here in Washington, Donohoe is diplomatic when it comes to the U.S. election. “I’ll leave it to America and the people of America to make their own decision regarding who their president is. Whoever that president is, Europe will find ways to both look after our own economic interests and work with that president,” he said.

Tariffs tit-for-tat:  But he warned against a swing toward protectionism, saying it will be damaging for global trade — but also insisting that Europe will protect its own interests if it has to. “Europe has to continue to make the case for the value of global trade and the value of good rules and global trade, while at the same time being able to look after our interests if those rules are infringed.”

SEEN AND HEARD

LEADERSHIP LESSONS: An A-lister audience gathered at the St. Regis Hotel, just two blocks from the White House, Thursday, to hear former British Prime Minister Tony Blair share some thoughts about leadership. Former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin introduced Blair, with World Bank chief Ajay Banga also popping by. The event marked the opening of the new regional office in D.C. of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Royal treatment: Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was greeted with a bouquet of flowers as she emerged from a black SUV at World Bank headquarters, politely handing it to one of her handlers before making her entrance.

Getting in the groove: IMF HQ1 was filled with the sound of drumbeats and dancing as dancers from West Africa put on a cultural show Thursday lunchtime in the foyer, with enthusiastic IMF employees joining in the fun.

Thailand merch:  It may still be two years away, but the Thai delegation has been keen to remind attendees that the 2026 annual meetings are taking place in Thailand. Among the freebies on offer at their stand in the IMF are cute elephant keyrings, sachets of instant Thai Tea and microfiber cloths to keep your laptop and phone screens shiny and new.

Fueling the press:  Journalists and officials who have covered EU summits over the years will be acquainted with the mystery yellow cake that is a staple of late-night coffee breaks in the Brussels press room. Playbook can reveal that this culinary delight has made it across the Atlantic and has been fueling hungry journalists this past week in the press center.

Cultural fix: Take a break from the world of high finance and drop into the IDB Staff Association Art Gallery on 14th Street. The gallery, which was established by the staff of the Inter-American Development Bank, showcases the best of contemporary art from the bank’s member countries. Check out the current exhibition on Contemporary Graphic Arts of Argentina, which closes on Oct. 31.

AGENDA

— Annual Meetings Plenary, World Bank DAR Constitution Hall, 9 a.m.

— IMFC Plenary Session, IMF Conference, Hall 1 HQ2-01A-820; 11 a.m.

— Meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, IMF, p.m

— South Africa: Monetary Policy After Covid, Lesetja Kganyago , governor of the South African Reserve Bank; IMF Cedar Hall HQ1-1-660, 1:30 p.m.

— Development Committee Plenary, World Bank Preston Auditorium, 2 p.m.

— “Creating Jobs and Boosting Growth: Delivering on the Marrakech Call for Action,” IMF Meeting Halls A&B HQ1-3-430A&B, 3 p.m.

—The Road to Investment, peace and security in the DRC, Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, National Press Club, 12 p.m.

— Semafor’s World Economy Summit continues at Gallup Great Hall, 9 a.m. Speakers include: Amos Hochstein, White House adviser; NASA Administrator Bill Nelson; Ali Zaidi, White House climate adviser; Sim Tshabalala, CEO of Standard Bank.

AROUND TOWN

Goldman’s gathering: Goldman Sachs President John Waldron on Thursday held a private dinner with fellow executives and government officials at the People’s House in Washington. The dinner featured a discussion with FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on the U.S. election. Attendees included CEOs from Piraeus Bank, Bank Leumi, ING and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, as well as the minister of finance of the Philippines, and Governor of the Central Bank of Bahrain Khalid Humaidan. Goldman’s Alex Younger, Jan Hatzius and John F.W. Rogers also joined.

Spotted: At the British Embassy’s IMF Annual Meetings Reception: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, U.K. Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero Ed Miliband, Ambassador Karen Pierce; IIF CEO Tim Adams; White House Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey; Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra; Barclays Americas CEO Richard Haworth; Goldman Sachs EVP John F.W. Rogers; BNY CEO Robin Vince ; Goldman Sachs President John E. Waldron; Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commissioners Caroline Pham and Christy Goldsmith Romero; CEO of Circle Jeremy Allaire; U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga; Fidelity Investments Vice Chair Anne Richards; Morgan Stanley International CEO Clare Woodman; FT’s Martin Wolf, Ed Luce and Sam Fleming; POLITICO’s Zach Warmbrodt and Suzanne Lynch.

Spotted: At Wednesday’s Atlantic Council’s IMF-World Bank Week Evening Reception, “Building continuity across G20 presidencies” Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center; Jenna Ben-Yehuda, executive vice president of the Atlantic Council; Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center; Daniel Tannebaum, partner at Oliver Wyman; Brazilian Secretary for International Affairs and Development Renata Vargas Amaral; Zachary Goldman, Wilmer Hale; Felice Gorordo, World Bank Group; South African G20 Sherpa Zane Dangor.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Global Playbook will be back in your inbox for a final pre-election edition on Thursday Oct. 31, before heading to Azerbaijan for the COP climate talks. Get in touch on slynch@politico.eu.

Thanks to: Zach Warmbrodt and editor Sanya Khetani-Shah.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters

 

Follow us on Twitter

Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  Global Playbook  |  West Wing Playbook  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook  |  Paris Playbook

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://login.politico.com/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to salenamartine360.news1@blogger.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service

Post a Comment

Previous Post Next Post