Bye bye, bilateral relations

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Oct 15, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Kyle Duggan, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mickey Djuric

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ All eyes on the Canada-India fallout.

→ Three things we’re watching this week, including PMJT at the public inquiry into foreign interference.

→ Government House Leader KARINA GOULD chats with Playbook about a House divided.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING


JT AT PIFI, REDUX — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and a cadre of PMO upper-ups cap round two of witness testimony at the foreign interference inquiry.

That will come on the heels of fresh allegations of staggering foreign interference by India involving a murder plot on Canadian soil, which led to surprise revelations on a holiday Monday that resulted in 12 diplomats being PNGed out of each country.

The timing alone is enough to give you whiplash.

— Ratatat tit-for-tat: Canada served notice early Monday it would boot six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner SANJAY KUMAR VERMA, from the country after RCMP discovered evidence linking them to criminal activity on Canadian soil.

India denied the allegations and in turn removed six top Canadian diplomats, including acting top envoy STEWART WHEELER (who by contrast just a year ago was bushy tailed and posting on social media about travel, food and taking the positive energy of life in India).

Global’s STEWART BELL and MERCEDES STEPHENSON had details that Indian diplomats in Canada were meanwhile “behind dozens of violent crimes across Canada that targeted opponents of the Modi government.”

Hard to imagine such a crime wave being organized out of the Indian High Commission in sleepy New Edinburgh, in a building next to a seniors home and across from the Edinburger, just a 20ish minute walk from Rideau Cottage.

The RCMP called a rare Thanksgiving Monday news conference to talk about the investigations into foreign diplomats and an attempt to remove their immunity to interview them about the evidence.

According to Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, instances of violence only increased following last year’s revelations linking India to the brazen killing of HARDEEP SINGH NIJJAR.

— Fast forward to now: Trudeau Chief of Staff KATIE TELFORD, PATRICK TRAVERS and PMO’s most immaculate note-taker BRIAN CLOW are on the stand today, per the schedule.

Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will also be there.

— Up to bat tomorrow: The PM himself.

— Quick catch up: The Star’s RAISA PATEL has this recap from the past week of testimony.

Former BILL BLAIR staffer ZITA ASTRAVAS notably in her testimony denied she was responsible for allowing an application for a spy warrant to sit on a desk collecting dust for weeks to protect the Trudeau government.

National security guru WESLEY WARK weighed on his Substack that in a matchup of typical political cock-up versus cunning political conspiracy … the circumstances and processes at play tip it into the former category.

“The warrant delay in itself is a bread crumb,” he writes. “The bigger story is how intelligence circulated [during the pandemic] within government and how attention was, or was not, paid to it.”

 

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FAILURE TO TURKEY DROP — A Liberal backbencher plot against Trudeau — revealed on Friday while the PM was out of town — cranked up the heat and even led to some internal confusion, before becoming eclipsed by bigger news.

Journalist ALTHIA RAJ scooped for the Toronto Star that disgruntled backbenchers were circulating a letter — which seemingly no journalist has actually seen yet, and apparently no lawmaker wants to surreptitiously pose next to in a conspicuous selfie.

Playbook was told it followed a rough caucus meeting Wednesday where unhappiness at PMO staffers by MPs and ministers was a big focus.

Maybe as many as 40 lawmakers want to sign their names, according to Raj. iPolitics reports “as many as 25” have, as of Saturday.

Are you a Liberal MP being asked to sign a document calling for the PM’s ouster? Let us know the latest count.

— Dizzying details: CBC reported it’s not technically a letter and it’s not being circulated. It’s more like a tightly controlled insurance policy that would prevent the signatories from backing down under PMO pressure.

Playbook spoke with a bunch of Liberals early into the weekend and found … some confusion: There actually was a letter circulating among MPs at the time, but it was apparently about caucus support for a biodiversity initiative, not ousting their leader. Some only learned about the mutiny petition through reading news reports.

— Steer clear: The PM ducked that one at his Monday presser.

“There will be time to talk about internal party intrigue at another moment, but right now, this government, and indeed all parliamentarians, should be focused on standing up for Canada's sovereignty,” he said.

— Congrats, you’re hired: The party quickly filled a key vacancy over the holiday weekend, announcing their new campaign director: ANDREW BEVAN, CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s chief of staff. That, after the last one, JEREMY BROADHURST, suddenly stepped down more than a month ago. The unfilled position had been a sore spot with the possibility of a snap election on the horizon.

Bevan is the strategic thinker responsible for the budget slow roll of pre-announcements that won pundit plaudits back in spring. Also: former chief of staff and senior adviser to KATHLEEN WYNNE. Well respected, and a guy who knows a thing or two about when it’s time to try just about anything to save the furniture.

— Snitch, please: Ottawa’s journalist community roiled with laughter and contorted facial expressions after reading this line in Raj’s piece about PMO executive director of comms MAX VALIQUETTE, who is hunting for leakers and had “warned MPs that journalists should not be trusted, and that they would ‘trade’ their names for access and information from the PMO.”

Only a political greenhorn could buy that one. Snitches get stitches, and lose all their sources.

LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE — Statistics Canada will drop the latest inflation numbers this morning, the last big piece of economic data to come out before the central bank’s next rate decision day.

It’s expected to dip below the bank’s target rate.

— Red-letter rate date: Oct. 23, just eight days from now.

Some have suggested Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM may do a double cut of 50 basis points rather than just a quarter percent, but that’s not a given.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with no public events scheduled.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND tours an AI company in T-dot then meets with “business leaders.”

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in Montreal where he will attend a fundraiser hosted in a private home at 5 p.m.

— Playbook doesn’t have a line of sight into Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET’s itinerary today.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has an 11 a.m. presser in West Block scheduled to talk about the expulsion of the Indian high commissioner.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is out stumping for the New Brunswick Greens around Moncton and Fredericton.

 

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DULY NOTED


Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is in Mendoza, Argentina for the Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas.

PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE


HOUSE HOLDER — “We actually like each other,” Government House Leader KARINA GOULD says of the Liberal flock she oversees in the chamber.

— Pressure cooker: The governing caucus’ solidarity is facing its latest test as word leaks about a growing number of MPs willing to call on Trudeau to step down as party leader.

But nothing unites Liberals like a fight with rabble-rousing Conservatives.

Morale is strong in the chamber, Gould told Playbook in an interview last week.

Take the current stalemate over a privilege motion that has snarled much of the work in the House chamber itself.

“When times get tough and we're under pressure like this, [Liberals] pull together. We know why we're here. We have clarity of purpose and clarity of vision that we are doing this because we're fighting for Canadians, and we believe very deeply in the programs and the policies that we're putting forward,” she said.

Gould spoke to Playbook before that latest bombshell scoop on anxious Liberals considering their options.

So, y’know, there’s that.

Still, here’s what else we learned about rumors in the fishbowl, how Gould works with a certain Conservative counterpart, and when the privilege debate could end.

— On a key relationship: Does Gould get along with House foe ANDREW SCHEER, the Conservative architect of the current impasse?

“I don't know if he’ll say the same thing, but I think we get along quite well, actually. I think we both understand where we're coming from, and what our objectives are, and where we’re going to find points of agreement. And we are going to acknowledge that we’re just going to disagree.

“Our meetings are always cordial and professional. We don't have blow-ups in our meetings.”

— How often they talk: “There have been days where it’s several times a day, and there’s other times where it’s once a week. It just kind of depends, but we don’t have any set schedule.”

Gould does meet weekly as a group with every House leader.

— On the chatter: Does she pay attention to the gossip about what’ll happen next? “Oh, I listen to all of it. Yeah, I think it’s really interesting.”

— Signal-to-noise ratio: “There's a lot of Conservative spin out there. When I hear folks talk about prorogation, or when I hear folks talk about [how] we weren’t going to do any of the opposition day motions until the very end [of the year]. That’s all Conservative spin. They’re trying to get the upper hand.”

— What cameras don’t capture in the House: “Often, MPs from other parties come over to talk to ministers, to talk about files that they care about, because they actually want to move things forward. It can sometimes be the more antagonistic people in question period who come over and are like, ‘Well, actually, I really want to work with you on this.’”

LIGHTNING ROUND — House committee work is still humming along, but the chamber is at a standstill. Playbook quizzed Gould on what comes next as bills lay fallow on the order paper. She played coy about a tool that could end the debate.

Where’s this headed? How many days can it go?

Well, we’ll see.

It truly is just a day at a time.

But that’s how minority parliaments work, right? It’s day-by-day, vote-by-vote.

I get that. But this is a very particular kind of procedural battle.

Yes.

And it is reducing House business, outside of various exceptions, to nothing — and time marches on.

The Conservatives have another privilege motion. [Gould was referring to Conservative MP MICHAEL BARRETT’s attempt to admonish the former business partner of Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT.]

They sure do.

The Conservative objective right now is to try to muck up the House. They don’t want to get the business of Canadians done. They just don’t. They are going to try every procedural trick they can think of to try to grind Parliament to a halt. What we’re saying is we’re here to do the work. We’re going to stick it out.

A closure motion could, if there were the votes, end this.

Yes. But Conservatives seem to want to keep debating this.

You can find another party in the House to pass a closure motion, conceivably.

Conceivably, yeah.

So that’s possible.

It’s possible.

— In related listening: Hill Times reporter IREM KOCA joins “The Hot Room” to explain the fight over documents that has led to a two-week-long filibuster in the House of Commons.

MEDIA ROOM


— “We are, by most objective measures, one of the wealthiest, healthiest, safest, freest places on the planet,” GERRY BUTTS writes in The Walrus. “But, man, you would never know it.” He makes the case that Canada is not prepared for the increasing likelihood of a Quebec secession referendum.

— On the “It’s Political” pod, ALTHIA RAJ takes on a question of the day: “How do we fix Canada’s immigration system?” Related from CAMPBELL CLARK in the Globe: “MARC MILLER and a mea culpa makes a rare success.”

— The Star’s ALEX BOYD looked into the fake ads featuring NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH that have been showing up on news websites.

PAUL WELLS writes — on the pre-Thanksgiving drop of the Walpole report — on the way the country handled science and data during the Covid-19 pandemic.

— “The Liberals’ hopes to win a fourth time next year, with or without Mr. Trudeau at the helm, mock history,” JEFFREY SIMPSON writes in the Globe. The former columnist examines four factors behind the party’s decline: Incumbency, inflation, immigration and identity.

— “It’s getting harder to describe the extent to which a meaningful percentage of Americans have dissociated from reality,” CHARLIE WARZEL of The Atlantic writes.

He makes two observations: “A durable ecosystem exists to ensconce citizens in an alternate reality, and second, that the people consuming and amplifying those lies are not helpless dupes but willing participants.”

PROZONE


Our latest newsletter for POLITICO Pro subscribers by KYLE DUGGAN and SUE ALLAN: Holland shares next steps for pharmacare.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Never-before-seen rainfall, record-breaking tornado outbreaks.

How scientists pinpoint climate’s ‘telltale signs’ on Hurricanes Milton and Helene.

Biden approves massive Pacific Ocean marine sanctuary.

U.S. Treasury pitches IMF, World Bank support plan for cash-strapped countries.

UK, US governments sign online safety pact.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: Cabmin CARLA QUALTROUGH and former Tory MP HAROLD ALBRECHT.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up?  Send it all our way.

Spotted: NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH, and some little pumpkins.

DON NEWMAN and SHANNON DAY-NEWMAN, taking in “My Fair Lady” at the Shaw Festival.

Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY meeting with Speaker GREG FERGUS and MPs SHUV MAJUMDAR, HELENA JACZEK, STÉPHANE BERGERON and LINDSAY MATHYSSEN.

NORMAN SPECTOR, taking pot shots at the PM’s old wedding photos.

Noted: MARK CARNEY’s name headlining a lobbying scandal in the Daily Telegraph. Expect that one to become a talking point in Canada.

Meta gets another week to prove it’s complying with the Online News Act.

Movers and shakers: Former Liberal MP and Halifax Mayor MIKE SAVAGE is the new lieutenant governor of Nova Scotia.

MARJORIE MICHEL will serve as the Liberal Party’s deputy campaign director in the next election.

Media mentions: Star columnist SHREE PARADKAR has won the PEN Canada prize for advancing freedom of expression.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here. 

9 a.m. Liberal MP BRYAN MAY is in Waterloo to announce an investment to support advanced research computing infrastructure in Ontario.

10 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Gananoque, Ontario, where he'll hold media availability on the Canada Carbon Rebate and increased rural supplement.

10:30 a.m. MP ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN and Conservation Halton President and CEO CHANDRA SHARMA are at Crawford Lake Visitor Centre in Milton, Ontario, to make an infrastructure announcement.

11:30 a.m. FedDev Ontario Minister FILOMENA TASSI is at B.S.B. Manufacturing Ltd. in Burlington to make an announcement in support of southern Ontario’s EV manufacturing sector. Liberal MP PAM DAMOFF will also attend.

12 p.m. (11 a.m. CT) Liberal MP TERRY DUGUID is at Cereals Canada Pasta Lab in Winnipeg to announce investments that aim to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of Canadian cereals.

1 p.m. Guilbeault is at Mallorytown Landing in Thousand Islands National Park for an Indigenous-led ceremony where they will announce the implementation of the Parks Canada Indigenous Stewardship Policy.

TRIVIA


Friday’s answer: In 2017, Newfoundland and Labrador had “a bit of a procedural meltdown” as the governing Liberals launched into a sort of filibuster of their own budget.

Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, JOHN ALHO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, CHELSEA BERRY, ADAM SMITH and PATRICK DION. 

Today’s question: “There was nothing I could do, nothing anybody could do. The water was so deep, up to our chins,” volunteer fireman BRYAN MITCHELL said of this date in history. What was he describing?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

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