Hochul knocks ERA campaign efforts

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Oct 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Jason Beeferman

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Governor Kathy Hochul speaks during a women’s rally for reproductive rights at the State Capitol.

Gov. Kathy Hochul at a pro-abortion rights rally in 2021. The governor knocked the organizing efforts behind the Equal Rights Amendment push while speaking with reporters in Greene County today. | Mike Groll/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

SLAM-CLUNK: The blame game has begun.

Two weeks before Election Day Gov. Kathy Hochul made a point of distancing herself from a ballot measure that should’ve been a slam dunk for Democrats but, as POLITICO exposed this week, is being grossly mishandled.

“I will say that we are stepping in now to provide assistance because it is apparently necessary,” Hochul said today, when asked if she thought the ERA campaign has been mismanaged.

The multi-million dollar effort for the Equal Rights Amendment — a referendum on reproductive rights in the Democratic stronghold for New York — has turned into a cash cow for polling and consultancy firms. Meanwhile, organizers of the measure have used less than 16 percent of the $2 million they had spent at the start of this month on direct voter outreach, our colleague Bill Mahoney reported yesterday. And Republicans have mobilized their voters against the measure.

Now Hochul — who announced last year she’d be backing a $20 million effort for the initiative with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — is setting herself up not to be the fall person if the measure underperforms.

POLITICO’s report Thursday noted the pro-ballot proposal campaign, New Yorkers for Equal Rights, is finally launching a high-dollar advertising blitz after spending a record-shattering sum on consultants and overhead during the past year.

Previous campaigns behind constitutional amendments on issues like casinos and redistricting have used upwards of 90 percent of funds on TV ads, lawn signs and other forms of direct voter outreach.

New Yorkers for Equal Rights, by comparison, has so far spent over 80 percent of its funds on other causes.

“I will not pass judgment at this time on earlier efforts, but certainly, when you build up a campaign, you raise all the resources you need, and you get it on the airwaves and in digital media campaigns and mail as soon as possible, and that's a wise way to spend the money that you raise,” she said.

Instead, the pro-Prop 1 group is ramping up spending on voter outreach in the final days of the campaign, with early voting set to begin Saturday.

Hochul, who supports the ballot proposal but does not have a direct role in the campaign, says the state party is making a seven-figure investment in paid communications on Prop 1, including 1.5 million pieces of mail and digital advertising and millions of targeted text messages as voting begins, Playbook is first to report.

Make the Road Action, Planned Parenthood, New York Civil Liberties Union and other like-minded organizations are behind the New Yorkers for Equal Rights effort.

“With 11 days to go, the Prop 1 campaign is focused on a strong finish to our 15-month long campaign,” Andrew Taverrite, a spokesperson for the campaign, said in a statement responding to the governor’s remarks.

“Every day we have been connecting with New York voters and urging them to vote yes on Proposal 1 to protect abortion rights and end government discrimination,” he added. “We were in this fight early because we knew what it would take to win. We are on TV, streaming, and digital, in mail boxes, on the phones, and at the doors. Everyone who wants to protect New Yorker's rights should be with us, ready to roll up their sleeves and get the job done.”

Meanwhile, Republicans have successfully launched an effort to vote no on the measure, saying the vaguely-worded amendment — which protects against discrimination along the lines of “gender identity [and] gender expression” but does not include the word “abortion” — would ensure trans athletes can participate in sports leagues that align with their gender identity.

“This looks more like a Ponzi scheme than a real campaign,” said New York Democratic consultant Jon Paul Lupo, who is unaffiliated with the campaign. “This is a once-in-a-generation civil rights measure during an election where control of the House runs through New York. The campaign’s donors and stakeholders should be outraged.”

The ballot proposal is showing other signs of cracking in the final days before voters head to the polls.

The Editorial Board for Newsday, the Long Island newspaper that slammed the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, encouraged its readers to vote against prop 1.

“Proposition One is an end run around the will of the people to have these choices made by their elected representatives,” the board said in the editorial. “Newsday's editorial board recommends a NO vote on Proposition One.” — Jason Beeferman

 

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AT THE BALLOT BOX

Voters fill out ballots.

Early numbers from New York show high rates of mail-in voting. | AFP via Getty Images

NEW YORK’S ABSENTEE NUMBERS: Early voting opens in New York on Saturday, but ballots have already started to pour in, thanks to the state’s newly-relaxed rules on absentee voting.

All signs point to the number of mail-in ballots being the second most in state history, without approaching the totals from the height of the pandemic. In Ulster County – which is divided between the congressional districts held by Reps. Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro – 13,600 ballots were requested as of yesterday afternoon. That compares to 17,000 requested and returned in 2020 and 6,000 in 2022.

John Quigley, the Republican commissioner of the county’s board of elections, said he’s expecting the biggest jump to come via in-person early voting. “We here in Ulster have beefed up our early voting staff at a couple of the sites to make sure we can accommodate that,” he said.

Republicans have been working to minimize a Democratic edge among absentee voters. Indicators are mixed so far on whether this is paying dividends.

In Onondaga County, the center of Republican Rep. Brandon Williams’ district, Democrats have requested 16,000 ballots, compared to 6,600 from Republicans. In Ulster, Democrats have a 7,800 to 2,100 lead among requests. Both counties gave Joe Biden a little less than 60 percent of the vote in 2020.

The Democratic edge was narrower in purple Cortland County, which is split between the Molinaro and Williams districts. Officials have mailed 525 ballots to Democrats and 427 to Republicans. – Bill Mahoney

 

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From The Campaign Trail

Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, right, and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appear on stage together during a campaign rally for Ryan, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, in Kingston, N.Y.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is set to appear with Rep. Pat Ryan on Saturday. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Hochul will rally Saturday in Dutchess County with Ryan as he defends his Hudson Valley seat.

Hochul’s trip to the battleground House district coincides with the first day of early voting in New York. The governor has been leading a statewide effort to flip five Republican-held House districts in the state in order to help Democrats regain power in the closely divided chamber.

Ryan’s is the sole district in New York represented by a Democrat that is considered to be in play.

And the visit also reflects what appears to be growing confidence among some Democrats: A Siena College poll this week found them winning the generic House ballot in the state and Vice President Kamala Harris opening a 19-point lead over former President Donald Trump statewide. Nick Reisman

CA$H NY-22: The candidates in one of the country’s most closely watched House races are both burning through their campaign cash as they barrel into the final stretch of the election.

Williams — the highly vulnerable Republican in the Syracuse area —reported less than $350,000 in his campaign war chest as of Oct. 16 while Democratic challenger John Mannion had nearly $460,000, according to Federal Election Commission reports filed late yesterday.

Their central New York fight is Democrats’ best chance at picking up a seat as they vie for a net gain of four seats nationwide in their quest to regain the House majority.

Mannion had raised $3.8 million as of Oct. 16 while Williams had raised nearly $4 million. Emily Ngo

FROM THE CAPITOL

A man passes the "Fearless Girl" statue in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

A man passes the "Fearless Girl" statue in front of the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 3. | Ted Shaffrey/AP

MIND THE GAP: Wall Street success is helping narrow the state’s projected budget hole, a key Hochul adviser told reporters today.

The governor’s administration in May pegged the gap at $5 billion. But the gulf between spending and tax revenue will be smaller in a report due out in the middle of next week.

“We had real concern about market performance and certainly the performance of revenue, cash in hand,” Budget Director Blake Washington told reporters today after a preliminary hearing on agency spending requests. “Those data are looking a lot more positive at this moment in time.”

The financial sector, crucial to New York’s economic health, has had a good year: Profits on Wall Street are up by more than 79 percent for the first six months of 2024 compared to the same time period a year ago.

This is good news for Hochul, who is already getting pressure to raise taxes on rich New Yorkers and boost spending next year. Nick Reisman

 

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AROUND NEW YORK

HOCHUL ON HAMILTON: Hochul responded to a POLITICO report that Jesse Hamilton, the city’s Deputy Commissioner of Real Estate Services under Mayor Eric Adams, intervened to overrule a city contract that had been already awarded to a real estate firm under a competitive bidding process and handed the contract to an Adams donor.

Today Playbook asked the governor if she thinks Hamilton should be fired.

“I'm not telling the mayor who to put into his administration,” she responded. “At the time of the indictment, we said it was important to clean house, make major personnel changes. He has done exactly that, and now who he replaces and fills with new positions is important for him to make that decision. But obviously we're continuing to monitor the entire situation.” — Jason Beeferman

POLLING WHIPLASH: A Newday/Siena poll found Democrat Laura Gillen ahead of Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by 12 points earlier this week, but a new poll shows the two are in a dead heat. (New York Post)

TRUMP AT THE GARDEN: Trump will use his Madison Square Garden rally to deliver his closing argument: Harris broke America. (POLITICO)

CATCHING BAD GUYS: Evolv, the tech firm behind New York City’s controversial subway system weapons scanner program, disclosed that some of its employees have “engaged in misconduct” during business deals. (Daily News)

PROGNOSIS TIME: Democrats may very well pick up a couple seats this Election Day, but Hudson Valley’s Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is looking strong. (Cook Political Report)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

 

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