 |
Send tips here | Tweet @PhelimKine or @StuartKLau | Subscribe for free | View in your browser
Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at China's Middle East diplomacy strategy since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and parse Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz's memory lapse on China. And we profile a book that argues that securing Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion attempt requires Beijing to stop believing that “Chinese greatness must be tied to Taiwanese subjugation.”
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
Beijing's Oct. 7 diplomacy gamble
|
Beijing's special envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun, last week visited Iran for what China called "an exchange of views on the Gaza conflict." It was Zhai's latest shuttle diplomacy to facilitate what Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said was Beijing's goal of a “cessation of violence” in the aftermath of Hamas' attack on Israel nearly one year ago.
Looking for another win. Beijing successfully brokered a hostility-reduction agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 and may have thought that it had a playbook that could succeed in the Middle East.
But China has had no more luck than others attempting to bring an end to the Israel-Hamas war. Beijing's close economic partnership with Hamas' patron Iran has apparently been as ineffective as possible leverage in ending the fighting as the U.S.' role as Israel's main arms supplier.
Something on paper, at least. China has echoed Washington in touting the two-state solution — a formula hinged to the creation of a Palestinian state — as the route to Israeli-Palestinian peace in the long term. But Beijing took the extra step of persuading 14 Palestinian factions that convened in Beijing in July — including Hamas and Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank — to agree to form a unity government to pave the way to such talks. Its durability is questionable — Fatah and Hamas are longtime foes that have failed to implement two previous reconciliation deals since 2011. But Beijing sees it an "important step" toward "peace and stability" in the region, said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.
Attention 'Global South': And Beijing's public framing of its peace efforts may still deliver China an advantage in building influence with countries outside of the major Western powers. Beijing's state media has been trumpeting its peace effort as a solution to"interference from the United States" in delivering a lasting peace in the region. That rhetoric aligns with Beijing's narrative of "U.S. hegemony and its perils" that unfairly favors Washington and allies such as Israel.
China wants to ensure that it gets "maximum credit for that stance with Arab countries, Muslim-majority countries and the Global South," said Dawn Murphy, associate professor of national security strategy at the National War College and an expert on Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East.
Ukraine echoes. That allows Beijing to market itself as a neutral advocate of what Wang Yi calls a "just settlement" of the conflict. China's United Nations' Ambassador Geng Shuang, in fact, accused the U.S. last month of having "stood in the way" of such efforts. It's a Middle Eastern twist on Wang's rhetoric in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday of China pursuing a "constructive role" in ending Russia's war on Ukraine while implicitly accusing the U.S. of "exploiting the situation for selfish gain."
Blame the U.S. That highlights Beijing's reflexive tendency to "try to use conflicts to rally global public opinion against the U.S.," said Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council and now managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Walz'in 'round China at the VP debate
|
Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Walz had his credibility as a China hand scrutinized during Tuesday's debate with his GOP counterpart JD Vance. And the results weren't pretty. CBS News debate moderator Margaret Brennan quizzed Walz on his contested claim that he had been in Hong Kong during the June 1989 Tiananmen massacre in Beijing. Walz responded with a two-minute monologue glossing his personal and professional history without answering the question. Walz came clean when Brennan re-asked the question. "I got [to Hong Kong] that summer and misspoke on this," Walz said. Viewers watching the debate in China missed all that — Chinese censors turned off the CBS feed the moment Brennan said "deadly Tiananmen Square protests."
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
|
— QIN GANG'S A GONER, (AGAIN): The last official trace of former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang's one-year tenure as U.S. ambassador in Washington is no more. Qin's official portrait graced the Chinese embassy's entrance hallway along with those of other former chief diplomats to the U.S. for months after he disappeared in June 2023 for reasons unknown. China Watcher's trip to the embassy this week for its national day celebration revealed that the ambassadorial portrait gallery is no more. Qin's image — along with those of his predecessors — has apparently been relocated outside of public view. The Chinese embassy declined to comment on the matter.
— KRISHNAMOORTHI SLAMS COMER'S 'SMEAR' AGAINST WALZ: House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer's (R-Ky.) move on Monday to subpoena the Department of Homeland Security for information about Tim Walz's China ties is drawing partisan fire. Comer's subpoena is a "thinly veiled and politically-motivated smear campaign," Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), ranking member of the House Select Committee on China, said in a statement Tuesday. Comer says he wants Homeland Security's input to safeguard national security. The subpoena aims to determine Walz's possible involvement with Chinese Communist Party efforts to undermine the U.S., the Oversight committee said in a statement Wednesday.
— BIDEN GETS ISHIBA'S BUY-IN FOR QUAD: President Biden came out of his congratulatory call on Tuesday with Japan's new Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's with assurance that Ishiba's government will continue to support Japan's role in the Quad. The Quad is an informal geopolitical grouping that also includes the U.S., Australia and India. The two leaders "underscored their commitment to enhance regional cooperation…through the Quad and through trilateral partnerships with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines," the White House said in a statement Tuesday. Biden convened Ishida's predecessor, now-former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the other Quad country leaders in Wilmington, Delaware last month to strategize ways to thwart perceived threats from China without further provoking Beijing.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
GERMANY EXPECTS EU TO FINALIZE TARIFFS AND CHINA TO WITHHOLD RETALIATION: Tomorrow's crunch vote by the European Union's 27 member countries on tariffs against made-in-China electric vehicles is expected to pass, predicts Germany's Ambassador to the EU Michael Clauss. In an interview with Stuart, Clauss said that while Berlin remained undecided, "the tariffs, in all likelihood, will be confirmed on Friday, I'd expect."
Clauss added: "Now, are we going to face a trade war? In the end it's up to one person, that is Xi Jinping, who will decide." The chances of retaliation are low, he said, given Beijing's dire economic situation and the uncertainty of the U.S. election result. Clauss, previously Berlin's top envoy to Beijing, added that China has been "negative" in discussing technology transfer as part of Chinese EVs' expansion plans in Europe.
EU ON COURSE TO SIGN NEW SECURITY PACTS WITH TOKYO, SEOUL: In the same event, Stefano Sannino, secretary-general of the EU foreign policy arm, said the bloc is expected to conclude a brand-new security and defense partnership agreement with Japan and South Korea by the end of November. This document focuses not just on military cooperation but also other areas of security, including cyber issues and the fight against disinformation. Japan "is starting to rearm substantially, but also to have a much more proactive defense posture, so from that point of view it looks in a way natural to develop this kind of relationship" for Europe, Sannino said.
UK UNDER PRESSURE TO SLOW DOWN FINANCE TALKS WITH CHINA: Britain's new finance minister Rachel Reeves is urged to delay her plan to restart an economic and financial dialogue with Beijing until after the government has completed an ongoing task to reassess ties with the country.
"It makes no sense for the Chancellor [Reeves] to be re-starting the dialogue before the China audit has been completed," said Andrew Yeh, executive director of China Strategic Risks Institute. His group released a report out today calling on London to take a harder look at economic security risks that China poses to the U.K.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
|
— CHINESE TOURIST DISRUPTS TAIWAN PROTEST: A Chinese tourist tried to forcibly disrupt a protest in Taipei on Tuesday that included banners calling for a "Free Hong Kong." The tourist loudly insisted that "Hong Kong and Taiwan are both part of China" and tried to tear down their banners, according to a report by Taiwan's SETNEWS. The incident ended after the protesters pushed back by shouting that "Hong Kong belongs to Hong Kong's people and Taiwan belongs to Taiwan's people."
HEADS UP
—RAIMONDO, WANG CALL IN 'NEAR FUTURE': China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will have a call with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo "in the near future," China's state news agency Xinhua reported Tuesday. The call's agenda will include "key issues of mutual concern" including the Biden administration's imposition of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicle imports, the report said. The Commerce Department didn't respond to a request for comment.
HEADLINES
Philippine Star: Detained Chinese 'spy' says espionage work to Philippines began in 2016
Wall Street Journal: And just like that, China did a policy U-turn (again)
Taiwan News: Taiwan will train 400,000 civilians to support military during crises
BBC: China is part of the US election – but only from one candidate
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
Revolutionary Taiwan | Image courtesy of Mark Harrison |
The Book: Revolutionary Taiwan: Making Nationhood in a Changing World Order
The Authors: Catherine Chou is an assistant professor of history at National Chengchi University in Taipei; Mark Harrison is a senior lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Tasmania.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
The Taiwan of today is not "free China" or the other half of an unfinished civil war from the 1930s and 1940s. As a result of democratization, the people of Taiwan have come to identify themselves largely as "Taiwanese" and the land they live on as a whole and complete nation unto itself.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
How Taiwan's "China problem" is designed to siphon off Taiwanese attention and resources keeping Taiwanese people guessing about what China’s true red lines are.
That diverts energy away from quality-of-life issues and long-term planning and policy changes necessary to ensure that there will be a healthy Taiwanese society decades into the future.
How can Taiwan balance its "nationhood" with the existential danger of an invasion by China which insists Taiwan is theirs?
The PRC has become prosperous and powerful without controlling Taiwan. A key part of solving the ‘Taiwan issue’ lies in developing alternate versions of Chinese nationalism and pushing back against the idea that Chinese greatness must be tied to Taiwanese subjugation.
Taiwanese statehood needs to be seen not just as a regional security issue but as part of the answer to what kind of world we want to live in.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt and digital producers Emma Cordover and Giulia Poloni. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com slau@politico.com.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters
This email was sent to salenamartine360.news1@blogger.com
update your preferences, or
unsubscribe from all POLITICO SRL emails
POLITICO SRL · Rue de la Loi 62 · Brussels 1040 · Belgium