Israel gets its man

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Oct 17, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine

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THE CATCH-UP

FILE - Yahya Sinwar, Palestinian leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, places his hand over his heart on stage after greeting supporters at a rally on May 24, 2021, in Gaza City, the Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

The IDF confirmed it has killed top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the lead architect of the Oct. 7 attack. | AP

‘OUR ENEMIES CANNOT HIDE’ — Moments ago, the Israel Defense Force confirmed it has killed top Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR, the lead architect of the Oct. 7 attack and the No. 1 target of its yearlong campaign in Gaza. Details of Sinwar’s death, which has not been confirmed by Hamas, remain sketchy, but he appears to have been killed in an operation in southern Gaza that was not specifically targeting him.

As details trickled out this morning and authorities worked to confirm Sinwar’s killing, top Israeli officials struck a tone of grave determination. Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT posted an image with X-ed out photos of Hamas political leader ISMAIL HANIYEH and Hezbollah chief HASSAN NASRALLAH — both killed in previous Israeli operations — as he quoted Leviticus: ‘You will pursue your enemies and they will fall before you by the sword.”

“Our enemies cannot hide,” he added. “We will pursue and eliminate them.”

Sinwar’s killing is an obvious triumph for Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU a year after he and his government were caught by surprise by Hamas’ audacious and murderous attack. What is wholly unclear is what effect, if any, Sinwar’s death will have on the future of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, let alone on the newly emerging front against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

One immediate question … “Former head of the Israeli security agency SHIN BET YA’AKOV PERI told POLITICO that the big worry now is ‘where are the hostages?’ … Israeli officials are worried that in the wake of Sinwar’s elimination, Hamas fighters to avenge his death by killing captives still held in the enclave,” Erin Banco, Jamie Dettmer and Elena Giordano report. But Sinwar’s death “could significantly disrupt Hamas operations and advance Israel’s strategic goal of eliminating Hamas as a military threat.”

How it happened … “Sinwar was in a building in Rafah in the southern portion of the coastal enclave and was found coincidentally, one of the Israeli officials said. … IDF soldiers engaged in a firefight with Hamas fighters near the building and Sinwar was found inside with several other Hamas commanders.”

Looking ahead … U.S. officials are now scrambling to figure out who will replace him, CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis reports: “US officials have long hoped that killing Sinwar would give Israel the political opening that it needed to agree to a ceasefire.” But who succeeds him “could have a profound impact on whether Hamas will be willing to restart meaningful negotiations with Israel for a halt to the fighting and the release of hostages.”

On the homefront … President JOE BIDEN was briefed on the developments on Air Force One en route to Germany, per the AP. Sinwar’s death is likely to “rise to the forefront of discussions” between Biden and his European counterparts during their scheduled meeting tomorrow, CNN’s Kayla Tausche reports . Back in Washington, celebratory statements have started trickling in from lawmakers of both parties.

“Sinwar’s life was the embodiment of evil and marked by hatred for all that is good in the world,” Speaker MIKE JOHNSON said. “His death brings hope for all those who seek to live in freedom, and relief to Israelis he has sought to oppress.”

But he added that “the Biden-Harris Administration must now work in tandem with Israel to apply a maximum pressure campaign against the head of the snake: Iran. … We cannot let this moment go to waste.”

SECRET SERVICE IN HOT WATER — An independent panel commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security delivered a withering assessment of the Secret Service in a new 51-page report assessing the agency’s performance surrounding the July 13 assassination attempt of DONALD TRUMP. The four former officials who drafted the report echoed many of the findings found in other assessments, from Congress and from the agency itself, where massive failures in communication allowed gunman THOMAS CROOKS to get off eight shots into the crowd in Butler, Pennsylvania.

But they went much further in their recommendations to completely overhaul the agency, warning of potential disaster in a letter to DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS should changes not be made: “[T]he Secret Service as an agency requires fundamental reform to carry out its mission. Without that reform, the Independent Review Panel believes another Butler can and will happen again,” they wrote. More from Betsy Woodruff Swan

Among the recommendations: Scaling back the agency’s historic “non-protective” operations, including its longstanding role in investigating financial crimes, “so that it can provide its protective mission with all resources required.” They also emphasized the agency usher in a “fresh perspective” by hiring new leadership that comes “from outside the Service rather than internal promotion.”

Panelist and former DHS Secretary JANET NAPOLITANO described the agency as “stale” in an interview with NYT’s Eileen Sullivan: “It is time for the service to kind of break out and to reach out beyond its own agency to bring in talent that can really take a fresh look at what it is they do, and how they do it.”

PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN — “Inside the Secretive $700 Million Ad-Testing Factory for Kamala Harris,” by NYT’s Theodore Schleifer and Shane Goldmacher: “\Future Forward officials have advised Democrats that more broadly focused ads often prove most effective, and the group’s roughly $450 million in advertising decisions reflects that belief. It’s a big bet, and the sheer volume of spending means that Future Forward will receive at least some credit if [KAMALA] HARRIS.wins — and blame if she loses.”

Good Thursday afternoon.  Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at birvine@politico.com.

 

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FOR YOUR RADAR — “Trump NRA rally in Savannah canceled,” by AJC’s Adam Van Brimmer: “A Trump campaign official said the event was canceled due to a scheduling conflict.”

AFTERNOON WATCH — In case you missed this morning’s edition of the Playbook Daily Briefing, you can now watch it on YouTube! Check out Rachael and Eugene breaking Harris’ Fox News interview and Trump’s town hall.

6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Donald Trump speaks.

Swing state Republicans are concerned that the Trump campaign’s reliance on outside groups for door-knocking may have endangered their chances to reach voters in critical states. | Alex Brandon/AP

1. GROUND TRUTH: With just 19 days until voters hit the polls, swing state Republicans are concerned that the Trump campaign’s reliance on outside groups for door-knocking may have endangered their chances to reach voters in critical states, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Dana Mattioli report. Some Republicans fear outsourced groups like Turning Point Action haven’t made much progress in states like Wisconsin and Arizona, while one GOP adviser claimed the outsourcing “was a mistake because the campaign lost some visibility and control over how its resources are being used.”

On the money … “This year through August, the Harris campaign, along with the former Biden campaign, has spent at least $48.5 million on canvassing, voter targeting and other ground-game efforts … The Trump campaign has spent $10.3 million on its ground game.”

Related read: “Could Second-Home Owners Swing New York’s Swing Districts?” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos

2. RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Trump’s lawyers are asking U.S. District Judge TANYA CHUTKAN to postpone the release of documents filed by special counsel JACK SMITH as part of his federal election subversion case until after the 2024 election, Kyle Cheney reports. The cache of evidence, the lawyers wrote in a new filing, would give potential jurors “a skewed, one-sided, and inaccurate picture” of the case. “Trump says the document should be released on Nov. 14, at the same time he files his own rebuttal to Smith.”

3. LOAN LURCH: Despite facing endless seemingly roadblocks in court as it pursues its student loan forgiveness agenda, the Biden administration is touting a victory for borrowers today, announcing that more than a million people have now had their federal student debt canceled through the public service loan forgiveness program, NYT’s Zach Montague reports . The borrowers, who work in various public and nonprofit sectors, have “collectively had $74 billion forgiven.” And in total, “the administration has reported approving around $175 billion in total student debt relief for nearly five million borrowers through all the actions taken during Mr. Biden’s presidency.”

4. AD WARS: “Watchdog groups ask FCC to help close loophole saving Senate GOP millions on TV ads,” by Madison Fernandez: “Left-leaning groups End Citizens United Action Fund, the Campaign Legal Center, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington and Public Citizen are asking the Federal Communications Commission to clarify its rules regarding the cost of television ads … The request comes after the Federal Election Commission deadlocked last week on a case concerning the tactic, effectively allowing it to continue.”

5. DEMOCRACY DIGEST: AP’s Jason Dearen, Michelle Smith and Aaron Kessler dive deep on the rise of radicalization and ideologically driven extremist crimes committed by U.S. servicemembers and veterans. Over 480 people with a military background have been accused of extremist crimes from 2017 through 2023, they report. Yet despite the rise and increasing concerns from law enforcement, “there is still no force-wide system to track it.”

“[A] chief hurdle cited by Pentagon officials has been a lack of data — how to understand the scope of extremism in the ranks when there are millions of active-duty service members across all of the branches? … The Pentagon did develop at least one way to detect extremist incidents across military branches and among civilian defense contractors. But it isn’t using it.”

6. THE BRIGHT SIDE OF AI: “AI helped Uncle Sam catch $1 billion of fraud in one year. And it’s just getting started,” by CNN’s Matt Egan: “US officials quietly started using AI to detect financial crime in late 2022, taking a page out of what many banks and credit card companies already do … the fraud detection efforts rely on machine learning, the subset of AI that excels at analyzing vast amounts of data, and making decisions and predictions based on what it’s learned.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kamala Harris will greet tonight’s Al Smith charity dinner with a video message.

Donald Trump canceled his NRA rally in Savannah, Georgia.

OUT AND ABOUT — The USDA’s Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships center hosted a sukkah at the People’s Garden on the National Mall yesterday, recognizing the important contributions to agriculture and food security. Speakers included U.S Special Envoy Deborah Lipstadt, Melissa Rogers, Samantha Joseph, Rob Newman, Liza Lieberman with a dedication by Cantor Jason Kaufman of Beth El Hebrew Congregation. SPOTTED: Matt Nosanchuk, Helene Kessler, Aaron Keyak, Nathan George, Erica Mindel, Gershon Stein , Michelle Schein, Max Harris, Daniel Marrow, Kirk McPike, Sammi Goldsmith, Max Samis Tammy Habteyes, Cynthia Klein, Darcy Hirsh, Aaron Kaufman and David Goldfarb.

TRANSITION — Erik Balsbaugh is now senior adviser for voter protection for the Harris campaign. He most recently was a partner at New Ground Strategies.

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