Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration and Harris campaign. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren Just as President JOE BIDEN was wheels-up for Berlin on Thursday morning for a short trip largely about the future of Ukraine, the Middle East took precedence again. Hours later, Biden and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS both expressed optimism that the death of Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR in an Israeli missile strike could offer an opportunity to bring the year-long conflict in Gaza to an end and avert a wider regional conflict. “Now is the time to move on, move forward to a cease-fire in Gaza,” Biden told reporters after landing in Berlin. While the seemingly intractable conflict in the Middle East has inflamed sectarian passions in the U.S., creating political peril for Biden and now Harris, it has also had some impact on the administration’s approach to the war in Ukraine, diverting the administration’s foreign policy focus. The timing of Sinwar’s death was another example of the Middle East conflict overshadowing what Biden wants to be talking about: a united Europe, a stronger NATO — and his role in it. Advisers on Ukraine policy have also come to believe that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN could seek to escalate the conflict with the West indirectly by aiding anti-U.S. forces in the Middle East in an effort to further destabilize the region. On a call previewing Biden’s meetings in Berlin, a senior administration official acknowledged on Wednesday, however vaguely, that the security issues in Europe and the Middle East are “obviously interconnected in different ways.” Biden’s valedictory visit to Berlin, delayed and condensed into a single day, was drawn up to recognize German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ , who has become Biden’s most reliable and trusted European counterpart. But the visit, which comes less than three weeks before the U.S. election, also serves to clarify anew how both leaders are running out of time and the political capital to shape the conflict in Ukraine, which they’ve described as an existential matter for European and global security. “For two and a half years, they've been saying ‘Whatever it takes, for as long as it takes,’ to ensure Ukraine can defeat Russia,” said IAN BREMMER , the president of The Eurasia Group, a global risk assessment firm. “It’s really hard to say that before the election. Everyone understands the Ukrainians don’t have whatever it takes for as long as it takes.” Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden and Scholz have leaned on one another and prioritized close coordination of their response to the war. That led to Germany’s decision to cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project in the first days following the February 2022 invasion, Biden’s begrudging agreement to send Ukraine tanks along with Germany and a broader alignment on the importance of the conflict. The German chancellor “was really scared that without the U.S. walking in lockstep with us that Germany would be singled out by Russia and take an unnecessary risk,” said JANA PUGLIERIN, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the head of its Berlin office. “But Scholz and Biden’s strategy of boiling the frog slowly in Ukraine did not really work,” she continued. “We are now two and a half years into the war and we did not manage to change Putin’s mind or enable any concessions. They kept Ukraine in the game, but they might not be around for the final showdown.” Beyond Wednesday’s $425 million drawdown of additional munitions for Ukraine, there won’t be any announcements of policy shifts coming in Berlin. According to a person familiar with internal conversations who was granted anonymity to discuss them, Biden has decided after much deliberation — and lobbying from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY — that he will not be lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles further inside Russia. The administration, the person said, disagrees with Zelenskyy that doing so would make a significant strategic impact on the war. Although the White House won’t say it explicitly, national security advisers privately can see the conflict moving toward some sort of diplomatic resolution. It’s possible that Biden could adjust the U.S. posture toward Ukraine’s accession into NATO, calling on allies to begin the process of ratifying Kyiv’s membership once the war with Russia has ended — a consequential geopolitical development that could provide cover for Zelenskyy to agree to give up some territory in the east while providing the one security guarantee capable of ensuring Putin doesn’t invade again. Such a proposal won’t be discussed publicly ahead of the U.S. election, but it will be a conversation for Biden and Scholz and part of their expanded dialogue with British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER and French President EMMANUEL MACRON on Friday. While NATO members have yet to agree on when to bring Ukraine into the alliance, they all agreed at July’s summit in Washington that Kyiv is already on an “irreversible” path to membership, according to the U.S. official. “The question is about the tactics of how to encourage that path and how to gain consensus on the next steps,” the official said. MESSAGE US — Are you ARIANA BERENGAUT, senior adviser to the national security adviser? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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