One year on

Oct 07, 2024

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ How federal politics changed a year ago today.

→ The eternally punted murmurs of a Cabinet shuffle.

→ New Brunswick is two weeks away from an election.

DRIVING THE DAY

ONE YEAR AGO — Correspondence sent to the federal government spiked last October. No surprise why.

The Israel-Hamas war has at times dominated the massive volume of letters and phone calls directed at Ottawa.

Canada's national conversation about conflict in the Middle East erupted a year ago today, following Hamas' attacks on Israel that claimed the lives of 1,200 people and hundreds more as hostages.

— About those letters: Playbook obtained three months of Privy Council Office correspondence data via access-to-information laws.

The upshot: Canadians have a lot to say.

In September 2023, PCO counted 124,076 individual pieces of correspondence. The following month, in the aftermath of Hamas' attacks, that metric spiked to 416,022.

In January, the Israel-Hamas war was easily the most frequent subject matter, and five of the top six items were related in some way to the conflict. Those trends held in February and March.

By comparison, letters about the federal carbon levy were dwarfed in volume by the war — until March, when the controversial pricing policy vaulted to third place overall.

— So far away, but so close: Thousands of Canadians have family or friends who've been displaced, injured or killed in the ever-escalating fighting in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank and more recently Lebanon.

Many have struggled against antisemitism and Islamophobia at home. Those ranks include colleagues in and around the Hill who feel fear, anxiety, sorrow and anger. Last week's House of Commons debate on the situation in Lebanon reflected all that humanity, offering an evening mélange of empathy and accusations.

The latest from POLITICO:

— Inside the US intel dilemma on Gaza a year after Oct. 7

— Israel bombs northern Gaza and southern Beirut, stepping up attacks on Iran proxies

— What to know about fighting in Gaza and Lebanon

— Iran is increasingly desperate, retired US general says

— Anniversary of Oct. 7 will see rise in antisemitic activity, ADL director warns

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

FRONT BENCH WATCH — Few in town think ANITA ANAND will juggle two jobs indefinitely, and not because she lacks drive or skill set. It's just that Treasury Board and Transport — the portfolios currently under her purview — are each a time suck.

It means a Cabinet shuffle involving one minister or many is likely — and here we borrow the obfuscatory language of government — "in due course."

Everyone has a theory of when it will finally go down.

— Calendar check: Let's explore what we do know as we acknowledge what we don't.

→ October: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is booking time far from Rideau Hall in the coming weeks. Next up is the PM's annual trek to the biannual ASEAN Summit in Laos, and a meeting in Germany with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which will keep him out of town much of the week.

Trudeau is likely to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in the middle of the Pacific Ocean — a trip to Samoa that'll rack up plenty of air miles. Cross off most of October's second-last week for that sunny sojourn.

— What's left? Monday is Thanksgiving, followed by a constituency week. On Tuesday, three of Trudeau's senior advisers will testify at the Hogue Commission. StatsCan also drops a fresh round of inflation data. On Oct. 16, Trudeau will take the hot seat for the second time.

That would leave Thursday and Friday — the 17th and 18th days of the month. Or the following week.

→ November: A fresh round of Trudeau travel to South America for APEC (Nov. 10-16) and the G20 (Nov. 18-19), not to mention the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, shrinks his calendar of options.

But the PM just needs one day to own a news cycle — and the will to make it happen.

— What we really don't know: Which ministers are going where, how many ministers are in play and which of them will drop off the front bench entirely.

— Your turn: Let us know what you’re hearing.

HOUSE ANTICS — House business ground to a halt last week as Conservatives flexed their procedural muscles and gummed up the works with privilege motions.

Government House Leader KARINA GOULD called it "obstruction for the sake of obstruction," which evoked memories of what Liberals called a dysfunctional state of affairs that defined the final House sittings before the 2021 election.

— Not done yet: When MPs enter the chamber this morning, the first order of business at 11 a.m. will be the same privilege motion that ran out the clock on Friday.

Tories are demanding disclosure of documents related to a scandal at Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

— Liberal hopes: Gould wants to debate three bills this week:

→ C-71, which amends citizenship rules.

→ C-66, which reforms the military justice system.

→ C-63, which aims to regulate online activity.

SUPPLY MANAGEMENT — Break out the dusty old box of lightbulbs. The Senate spotlight needs to be in rare form this week.

Bill C-282, which would shield supply management from future trade negotiations, is back on the agenda at the Senate committee on foreign affairs and international trade. Senators will hold four hours of hearings over two days.

This PMB is Bloc Québécois ultimatum ammunition. They want progress tout de suite or it's au revoir to Bloc support on confidence votes. They mock senators for taking their time.

— Mark your calendars: Wednesday at 4:15 p.m. and Thursday at 11:30 a.m.

Senators have lined up 10 organizations and individuals. They'll hear from a divided ag sector and academics with public views on supply management.

→ Who's for: Egg Farmers of Canada (✔), Union des producteurs agricoles (✔), trade historian BRUCE MUIRHEAD (✔), Canadian Hatching Egg Producers (✔), Turkey Farmers of Canada (✔).

→ Who's against: Former trade negotiator DEANNA HORTON (✘), former diplomat COLIN ROBERTSON (✘), Canadian Canola Growers Association (✘), Canola Council of Canada (✘), National Cattle Feeders' Association (✘).

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Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will meet with Northwest Territories Premier R.J. SIMPSON. He'll also chair a Cabinet meeting.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND starts the day at a Toronto event to "mark one year since the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel." She'll also attend QP and Cabinet.

— Playbook hasn't seen public itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH or Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament. At 7 p.m., she will attend an event marking the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

COUNTDOWNS

Every Monday, we'll remind you of some key events edging ever closer.

Sitting days, including today, until the Bloc's Oct. 29 legislative deadline: 12 … Christmas break: 42 … Summer: 111, at the absolute most.

Calendar days until Statscan’s next inflation data: 8 … The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 16 … Commonwealth summit: 14; APEC: 34; G20: 42 … U.S. election day: 29 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C.: 54 … B.C. election: 12 … New Brunswick election: 14 … Saskatchewan election: 21.

Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us!

In the provinces

DOWN EAST — Liberals desperate for momentum can look east. New Brunswick Liberal Leader SUSAN HOLT is a rare example of an ascendant Big-L politician.

"It's the only place in the country right now where support for Liberals is actually growing," KATIE DAVEY, the party's campaign manager, tells Playbook. "It's a bright light in progressive politics in Canada right now in a really big way."

New Brunswickers vote two weeks from today.

The race appears close, though polls are few and far between. Mainstreet Research last week gave the Liberals a 44-37 lead over the PCs among decided voters. But 338Canada pegs the seat count as nearly tied.

— History lesson: PC Leader BLAINE HIGGS is gunning for a third term. New Brunswickers don't often give premiers that luxury.

— Holt on a second: JUSTIN TRUDEAU's popularity has sagged in the Atlantic provinces.

Nova Scotia's Progressive Conservatives campaigned against the federal carbon tax in a 2023 by-election. A revamp of Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal campaign signs could've created some distance from the federal brand.

It's a thing in New Brunswick, too.

"There's definitely brand confusion. There is no question about that," says Davey. Higgs has tried to link Holt and Trudeau, and the federal carbon levy is a feature of the campaign.

— Race to the bottom: "The only leader less popular than Justin Trudeau in Canada is Blaine Higgs," Davey notes.

Higgs finished dead last in the most recent Angus Reid polling on premier approval ratings. But his 30-percent mark was identical to the same pollster's September rating of Trudeau.

— Platform brainstorm: Davey credited Holt with leading a five-day consultation with Liberal candidates on what they'd take to voters. "The platform announced [last week] was the most collaborative and consultative platform ever developed by this party," she said.

Davey spent five daily sessions on broad themes, working with 49 candidates in one room on the final package. "They literally live edited. We deleted stuff that didn't resonate with them, and they didn't think would resonate with New Brunswickers," she said.

Caught our ear

SAY ANYTHING — Justin Trudeau may not be open to advice, but he received some anyway on the latest episode of “The Herle Burly” pod.

Former Cabmin and current chair of the World Refugee & Migration Council LLOYD AXWORTHY was on the show to discuss his new memoir.

During an hour-plus conversation that started with the state of cities, touched on war in Ukraine and included Axworthy’s vote for best PM in his lifetime (he named three), the party statesman shared the following:

— An appeal to Liberals: “I would hope that the Liberal caucus, the government, Liberals generally, will say, ‘We may get a licking in the next election, but before that happens, let’s do something that really makes a difference for this country. Let’s show that we’re not simply engaging in a spitball contest in the House of Commons every day.”

MEDIA ROOM

— The Star's MARK RAMZY reports that Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has gone on an ethnic media charm offensive.

— From the Globe's NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE this morning: Indigenous groups in U.S. and Canada clash over cross-border land claims.

— STEVE MAHER stitches together the backstory on that infamous CTV error — and, following plenty of off-the-record interviews, has tough words for the network bosses (and separately, PIERRE POILIEVRE).

— BDC chief executive ISABELLE HUDON tells KEVIN CARMICHAEL she has so far met in person with 125 MPs. The Logic columnist calls the effort “a demonstration of respect for the backbenches that exceeds anything I’ve encountered in my couple of decades watching economic policy get made.”

— MICHAEL KOVRIG was the subject of The Economist’s weekend profile.

— Deputy Bloc Leader CHRISTINE NORMANDIN joined JENN JEFFERYS and MAÏTÉE SAGANASH on the latest episode of the “City and Nuuchimii” pod.

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Ng touts billion-dollar endorsement of CETA.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Tech execs kick off new blitz for KAMALA HARRIS.

— California’s failed AI safety bill is a warning.

— EV backlash has Michigan Dems on defensive.

— Global gas demand to hit all-time high in 2024, report finds.

— ECB doubles down on punishing eco-unfriendly banks.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to PMO deputy chief of staff BRIAN CLOW, Sen. RAYMONDE SAINT-GERMAIN, Liberal MP FRANCIS DROUIN, former MPs BILL MORNEAU and DAVE VAN KESTEREN, and McMillan Vantage’s JEFF RUTLEDGE. Also celebrating: SARAH CHOWN, managing partner of the Métropolitain (and gracious host of Playbook Trivia).

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: DANIEL MINDEN, off to Oxford.

The flag on the Peace Tower, lowered in memory of ADRIANA SOLANO LACLÉ. The ambassador of Costa Rica in Canada died on Sept. 30.

MARC GARNEAU, former Cabmin and first Canadian in outer space, thinking back to the launch of the STS-41G, 40 years ago Saturday: “a flood of memories today.”

Conservative MP GÉRARD DELTELL, in the office with Tim Hortons and paperwork at 7 a.m. Saturday morning.

Noted: Global Affairs updated its travel advisory for the U.S. as Tropical Storm MILTON strengthened into a hurricane and moved in Florida's direction.

Movers and shakers: Former Deputy Health Minister STEPHEN LUCAS has been named CEO of Mitacs, a nonprofit national research organization … LAURENCE LEBLANC is now a foreign service officer.

Media mentions: Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI used time in the House on Friday to salute the 50th anniversary of the Ottawa South Community Association Review, better known as the OSCAR … ERICA ALINI is the Globe's new personal economics reporter.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

11 a.m. The House environment committee continues its study of forest management and fire control in Jasper National Park.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will study the reopening of the cod fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec.

11 a.m. The House natural resources committee is studying Canada’s electricity grid.

11 a.m. MARTA MORGAN will be at the House public accounts committee to take questions on the auditor general’s findings on Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

11 a.m. The House international trade committee has booked 90 minutes to discuss women and trade.

11 a.m. The Standing Joint Committee for the Scrutiny of Regulations has a meeting on the books.

11 a.m. The House status of women committee will continue its study of coercive behavior.

3:30 p.m. The Canadian Bankers Association will be at the House industry and tech committee as MPs study credit card practices and regulations in Canada.

3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee continues its work that is focused on the recognition of Persian Gulf veterans.

3:30 p.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will discuss Bill C-61 with Grand Chief CODY DIABO of the Mohawk Council of Kahnawake and with Six Nations of the Grand River Chief SHERRI-LYN HILL.

4 p.m. Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and AFN National Chief CINDY WOODHOUSE NEPINAK are among the witnesses at the Senate national security committee as it studies Bill C-20.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will focus on minority-language health services.

Behind closed doors: The House heritage committee will work on two reports — one on tech giants and intimidation and subversion tactics, the other on illegal sexually explicit material. The House immigration committee will be focused on its study on closed work permits and temporary foreign workers. The House committee on Canada-China relations is also at work on a study. The Senate human rights committee is focused on its study of forced global displacement.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: From a Playbook reader in Nova Scotia: “Shag Harbour made the news for the ‘UFO incident’ in which something may or may not have hit the water. The truth is out there.”

Props to KELSEY MACDONALD, RAYLENE LANG, TOD COWEN, MALCOLM MCKAY, LAURA JARVIS, DOUG RICE, MATTHEW CLARK, SEAN MOORE, BILL WATSON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JIM CAMPBELL, RAY DEL BIANCO, CHELSEA BARRY, ROB LEFORTE, ADAM SMITH, GARY ALLEN, HEATHER CHIASSON, JASON DEVEAU, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN MERRIMAN, DEREK DECLOET and BRENNAN GOREHAM.

Today’s question: Who said: “Politics is, frankly, nothing like business. I have much more scar tissue from five or six years in politics than I do from 25 years in business.”

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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