Preparing for Trump 2.0

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Oct 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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the Canadian Bankers Association

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Let’s get to it:

KELLY CRAFT drops some pre-Trump 2.0 advice for Canada.

→ PMJT and MARC MILLER attempt to change the channel.

→ Who’s up and who’s down in this week of ups and downs.

Talk of the town

Kelly Craft and Donald Trump

A scene from 2018: Then-U.S. President Donald Trump with Kelly Craft, who was U.S. ambassador to Canada at the time. | Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

'BUCKLE UP' — DONALD TRUMP's former envoy in Ottawa delivered a blunt message during a return visit to the capital Thursday evening.

"People need to buckle up and get ready," KELLY CRAFT said of Trump's re-election, which she views as a certainty. That message, she said, goes for American allies everywhere.

Craft was reiterating her Globe and Mail op-ed from June. But she had more to say.

— 11 days to go: The Public Policy Forum packed the National Arts Centre's Canada room with corporate leaders, senior bureaucrats, academics, lobbyists and public affairs pros.

Less than two weeks from voting day in the U.S., the think tank served up a three-course meal of conversations for the PPF Fall Lecture 2024 on the cross-border relationship.

First up: Ipsos pollster CLIFFORD YOUNG . Next: Foreign policy doyenne JANICE STEIN and outgoing PPF president ED GREENSPON, in a conversation moderated by POLITICO's LUIZA SAVAGE.

— Then the headliners: Craft walked onstage alongside fellow former ambassador, GORDON GIFFIN . Savage, moderating once again, pushed and prodded for their unvarnished views of the Canada-U.S. relationship.

— Turn on the taps: Early on in the conversation, Craft urged Canada to meet NATO's spending target of 2 percent of GDP. She told the room that NATO leaders were thankful that her former boss aggressively pushed allies to spend more on defense.

If Canada did step up, she said, it would have a "best friend for life" in its neighbor.

But should the money not flow: “It’s going to be another conversation, a very firm conversation that Canada needs to pay their fair share.”

— In related reading: Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) penned a Newsweek op-ed calling JUSTIN TRUDEAU , not Trump, "the greatest threat to NATO."

— Chaos mode: Craft reminded the crowd that she was in the room for fractious NAFTA renegotiations, and also served as U.N. ambo during Trump's tumultuous term.

She saw his style up close and personal: "I lived it every single day, and this country, Canada, and the U.S. are safer because of it.”

A re-elected Trump strikes a "healthy fear" in European allies, Russia and China, she said: "Because he's unpredictable. And that's what works."

A senior official at the Privy Council Office, seated with colleagues in the middle of the room, scribbled notes.

— Picking winners: When Savage asked the room for a show of hands on who would come out on top in the race for the White House, those who leaned toward Trump winning vastly outnumbered the Harris betters. (For the record, Tory MP RYAN WILLIAMS thinks the former president will take it.)

— In related news: KELLY GERALDINE MALONE of The Canadian Press reports on a Leger poll that says if Canadians could vote, a majority would choose to send KAMALA HARRIS to the White House.

 

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Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Greater Toronto Area, where he will visit a police station to "discuss the drop in auto-theft incidents."

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Washington for meetings of the World Bank and the IMF. At 10:15 a.m., she will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN. At 5 p.m., she’ll attend a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors.

— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament virtually.

DULY NOTED

2:30 p.m. Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON will be in Windsor to visit the Gordie Howe International Bridge worksite and meet with workers.

5 p.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE headlines a party fundraiser hosted by Liberal MP JOËL LIGHTBOUND at Cherry River distillerie in Quebec City.

Driving the Day


BACK ON MESSAGE — The Liberals picked immigration as Thursday's post-raucous caucus channel-changer. Most ministers had one job: don't get in the way.

And the government dropped a beast of a policy reversal.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Immigration Minister MARC MILLER announced a significant reduction in new permanent resident targets: 395,000 in 2025, down from 500,000; 380,000 in 2026; and 365,000 in 2027.

"Our immigration system has always been responsible, and it's always been flexible," Trudeau told reporters, admitting the government "didn't get the balance quite right" as it faced labor market challenges in recent years.

→ Counterpoint: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE called the immigration overhaul a "massive admission of failure."

— Listening mode: Miller acknowledged MPs heard from constituents about the impact of immigration levels on housing, healthcare and social services.

"While we are still and continue to be an open country, that volume [of immigration] that we have put forward is something that is of concern," he said.

Thursday's announcement "shows we're listening to Canadians," he added.

— Speaking of listening: Trudeau's dissenters hoped he would take time to reflect on the uncomfortable feedback from caucus colleagues who counseled him to resign.

Some hoped he would make a decision by Oct. 28. He didn't require that much time. The PM's overnight deliberations didn't deter him from staying on as leader.

Global's MACKENZIE GRAY kicked off the media avail Q&A with direct questions about Trudeau's future.

— Gray: How can you say your party's united after numerous MPs told you to your face yesterday that you should quit?

— Trudeau: Listen, the Liberal Party has always had robust discussions about the best ways to tackle the issues that are facing Canadians. We are united in our desire to prevent PIERRE POILIEVRE from cutting programs and services that Canadians are facing.

We're going to continue to have great discussions about how I can best lead the Liberal Party forward with measures that will counter the growing misinformation and disinformation that Mr. Poilievre is putting forward around Canadians. We're focused on winning the next election and we've got a great team around us to do it."

— Gray: Are you planning on staying on as prime minister past Oct. 28?

— Trudeau: Yes.

— Potted plants: Twenty MPs literally had Trudeau's back, applauding in the background as the prime minister insisted he'd lead his party into the next election.

The loyal soldiers included PAUL CHIANG, TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, JAMES MALONEY, KAMAL KHERA, RANDEEP SARAI, MAJID JOWHARI, SHAFQAT ALI, WILSON MIAO, SUKH DHALIWAL, SALMA ZAHID, FRANCESCO SORBARA, MANINDER SIDHU, LEAH TAYLOR ROY, JAIME BATTISTE, RUBY SAHOTA, FAYÇAL EL-KHOURY, JEAN YIP, JENNA SUDDS, VALERIE BRADFORD and SONIA SIDHU.

— Dueling interpretations: Trudeau celebrated internal caucus debate.

"Unlike the Conservative Party of Canada, we have robust conversations within our ranks about the best way to move forward."

→ Second opinion: Recall Liberal MP WAYNE LONG 's reaction to Wednesday's cathartic closed-door session. “In my nine years of caucus it was the most meaningful, direct and blunt caucus that I’ve seen,” Long told Playbook.

In other words: It was the exception, not the rule.

 

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WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN

Up: Google searches for CHRISTY CLARK this week after the former B.C. premier showed interest in a federal Liberal leadership race. Clark clarified that the job "is not going to be vacant in the near future."

Down: Future immigration levels, following the government's reduction in permanent resident targets over the next few years.

MEDIA ROOM

Elon Musk speaks as part of a campaign town hall.

Elon Musk speaks as part of a campaign town hall in support of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump in Folsom, Pennsylvania. | Matt Rourke/AP

— The Wall Street Journal reports that ELON MUSK has been in regular contact with Putin since late 2022.

What happens if Trump wins? STEVE VERHEUL discusses “ugly choices” on the “WONK” pod.

— Top of POLITICO: ‘Texas is the stage and the audience is the battlegrounds’: Why Harris is barnstorming the Lone Star State

— CBC's EVAN DYER reports: India makes it clear it's not interested in a western alliance

— Here's the Globe's BOB FIFE this morning: Ottawa offered India options to address violence before expelling its diplomats.

IAN BRODIE offers advice to Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH in advance of her leadership review vote at the upcoming United Conservative Party convention.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Proof Strategies government relations director MAURICE RIOUX. HBD + 1 to Conservative MP JAMIL JIVANI.

Saturday: Crestview's SAM O'GRADY, Canadian businessman ANDRÉ DESMARAIS, former Winnipeg Mayor GLEN MURRAY, former Cabmin ROY MACLAREN (90) and former NDP MP CLAUDE GRAVELLE.

Sunday: NDP’s JACK HARRIS, former Ontario Cabmin ROB SAMPSON and Yukon MLA JOHN STREICKER.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets.

Noted: During testimony Thursday at the House public safety committee, former Cabinet minister CHRIS ALEXANDER accused longtime Ottawa Citizen defense reporter DAVID PUGLIESE of being "recruited" by the KGB. Shortly after, the Canadian Association of Journalists denounced the "ridiculous" allegations. Canadaland's JESSE BROWN teased a podcast interview in which Pugliese "vigorously and completely" denies the allegations. Here is Pugliese's statement.

Spotted in the Senate gallery: Olympian PATRICK CHAN and his family. “Sometimes we skate here, but nothing worth a gold medal,” Sen. PIERRE DALPHOND said by way of greeting. … MIKE SAVAGE, currently mayor of Halifax and soon-to-be lieutenant governor of Nova Scotia, a guest of Sen. RODGER CUZNER … Olympian curler CHERYL BERNARD.

 

A message from the Canadian Bankers Association:

The trust Canadians place in their banks means everything. Over 99 per cent of adult Canadians have an account with a financial institution, a responsibility we take seriously. It’s the foundation of every personal connection we nurture and every dream we help support. Whether they’re paying bills, saving for the future, or managing daily expenses, we’re on their side. Employing over 280,000 Canadians in the banking sector, our commitment extends through every branch and office, powering not just individual success but also contributing to our economy. With every decision – big or small – Canada’s banks are on your side, committed to Canadians' security and growth. Click here to learn more about how Canada's banking sector is supporting you.

 
PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Canada pivots on immigration.

Other headlines:

World on track for catastrophic 3C warming, UN warns.

Biden green-lights Nevada lithium project despite risks to endangered flower.

‘Revolutionary’ AI weather forecasting seen as boon for the grid.

UK regulator probes Google’s Anthropic investment.

Why Arizona mining opponents are afraid of Trump — and Harris.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here. 

TRIVIA

\Thursday’s answer: Approximately 12.9 million shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 1929 — aka Black Thursday.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, RAY DEL BIANCO, GORDON RANDALL, JOHN ALHO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, RAYLENE LANG and JENN KEAY.

Friday’s question: The Parliamentary Centre handed out its annual Democracy Award this week jointly to ED BROADBENT and BRIAN MULRONEY.

Previous winners include former Prime Minister JOE CLARK and current U.N. ambassador BOB RAE. In what years did those two serve together in the House of Commons?

Send answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday’s Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN. 

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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