So ... is this the October surprise?

The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
Oct 23, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Ben Johansen

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration and Harris campaign.

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Well, we’re 13 days out from the election. And Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ campaign believes it has its October surprise.

After JOHN KELLY, DONALD TRUMP’s longest-serving chief of staff, warned in a pair of interviews published Tuesday that his former boss met the definition of a fascist and was “certainly an authoritarian,” the Harris campaign did everything it could to make sure those comments stuck.

Harris, who had planned to spend the morning at the Naval Observatory preparing for her CNN town hall, added unplanned remarks to her schedule — a 3-minute speech from a lectern outside her front door that was carried live by all the cable networks and will almost certainly be part of all the major evening newscasts.

“Donald Trump is increasingly unhinged and unstable,” Harris said. “And in a second term, people like John Kelly would not be there to be the guardrails against his propensities and his actions. People who once tried to stop him from pursuing his worst impulses would no longer be there.”

That was just hours after Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ went out of his way to speak to the journalists stationed down the block from the St. Paul polling place where he had just cast his ballot.

“I think for many of us the last 24 hours certainly have been a bit shaking with the reporting coming out in The Atlantic,” Walz said , encouraging everyone to read the reports for themselves. “Donald Trump’s descension into madness and John Kelly — who I thank for showing the courage to come forward — truly telling the world those closest to Donald Trump know how dangerous he is.”

The Harris campaign also quickly pulled together a 10:30 a.m. press call with retired U.S. Army Brigadier Gen. STEVE ANDERSON and retired Army Reserve Col. KEVIN CARROLL , who stressed that the people who know Trump best are opposed to him. Not to mention the dozens of X posts that campaign staffers have fired off in the past 24 hours on the matter.

Former Obama 2012 campaign manager JIM MESSINA, an informal adviser to the Harris campaign, said in a post on X that Kelly’s decision to put his comments on the record “is as close to an October surprise as you can get. Trump’s own former top aide issuing a dire warning. Never seen anything like it.”

But as Messina rightly notes, the current political and media environment renders almost obsolete the not-so-distant reality of an unexpected yet cataclysmic event shaping the final weeks of the campaign. To be clear, the substances of Kelly’s declarations may not even qualify as much of a surprise.

Trump’s admiration for strongmen and even the Nazi regime, based on similar background attestations from Kelly, other generals and former Trump cabinet members, have already been described in news articles and books on his presidency. In the closing days of this campaign, Trump himself has spoken repeatedly of “the enemy within,” presaging a dark future of possible purges and who knows what else.

But the NYT’s decision to publish the audio of Kelly’s conversations did break fresh ground, putting these well-worn but heretofore second-hand critiques on the record — and in the four-star general’s own, gravelly New England patois.

The recording offers Harris’ campaign new fodder for paid ads, which could be forthcoming.

What’s unclear is whether this will make any difference. Although the universe of remaining undecided voters is relatively miniscule, the race for the White House appears to be so close that any little thing that tips the balance in the final days could end up deciding the outcome.

And Harris, to the consternation of some Democrats, has increasingly focused her closing argument on the unique threat her opponent poses to American democracy — a central message of JOE BIDEN’s now defunct campaign that she, in her first, frenzied weeks as his replacement, mostly eschewed in favor of a more forward-looking, optimistic pitch.

The Kelly comments provide Harris with new ammo to make that argument. But some worry that it’s an argument many still on the fence — after nearly a decade of Trump-dominated politics — won’t find persuasive. And the more time the vice president and her campaign spend talking about Trump, the less time they can devote to outlining her own policy goals and rebutting Trump’s caricatures of her as a failed “border czar” and San Francisco liberal intent on pushing the country even further to the left.

That said, the clearest indicator that these latest comments could have an impact may have come from Trump’s side. Fox News, which focused far less on the story than CNN and MSNBC did, referenced JEFFREY GOLDBERG’s piece in The Atlantic but mostly ignored the NYT story featuring Kelly’s audio. And Trump’s running mate, JD VANCE, opted not to take questions from the national reporters traveling with him in Nevada, a shift from his typical accessibility.

MESSAGE US — Are you MINELLY DE COO, special assistant to the president for infrastructure implementation? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com .

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POTUS PUZZLER

What music was on GEORGE W. BUSH’s 2005 iPod?

(Answer at bottom.)

CAMPAIGN HQ

IS MIKE DONILON STILL RUNNING THIS CAMPAIGN?! Vice President Harris is planning to deliver her closing arguments Tuesday in a speech on the National Mall, WaPo’s ELLIE SILVERMAN and TYLER PAGER report. The campaign is still finalizing her message, but the vice president plans to present a final case from a place selected to emphasize a contrast between herself and former President Trump. As part of that, Harris is likely to mention Trump’s role in inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.

RETAIL POLITICS! Nothing like a massive sandwich to get you locked and loaded for the CNN town hall. Vice President Harris on Wednesday afternoon stopped by the Famous 4th Street Deli in Philadelphia, where she ordered the classic pastrami sandwich with a slice of German chocolate cake on the side, according to pooler MYAH WARD . After two days off the campaign trail, it’s clear that Harris and her team are preparing for the live town hall as if it’s akin to a debate — that’s what they’d hoped they’d be doing tonight, but Trump said no — and perhaps her last, best chance to reach a large prime-time audience.

Vice President Harris reacts as she sees large sandwiches on a counter while visiting Famous 4th Street Delicatessen on Wednesday in Philadelphia.

Vice President Harris reacts as she sees large sandwiches on a counter while visiting Famous 4th Street Delicatessen on Wednesday in Philadelphia. | Getty Images/Andrew Harnik

ONLY TWO MORE WEEKS OF THESE: New Quinnipiac University polls released Wednesday show the race in Michigan and Wisconsin is ... wait for it … neck-and-neck. In Michigan, Harris has a slight lead over the former president, 49 percent to 46 percent. And in Wisconsin, the two candidates are both deadlocked at 48 percent.

But there is a significant gender gap. In Michigan, women — 57 percent to 37 percent — favor the vice president, while men favor Trump, 56 percent to 40 percent. Similar margins were found in Wisconsin.

EYEBROWS, RAISED: On the aforementioned reports of Trump wanting those around him to embody Hitler’s generals, Fox News’ BRIAN KILMEADE took a stab at defending the former president this morning.

“I can absolutely see him going, ‘You know what, it would be great to have German generals that actually do what we ask them to do,’ knowing he’s not fully cognizant of the third rail of German generals who were Nazis or whatever,” Kilmeade said (emphasis on the “or whatever”).

GUT PUNCH: Ahead of the vice president’s visit to Texas on Friday — where she will be joined by women affected by the state’s abortion ban — the Harris campaign launched a new ad featuring a woman named ONDREA, who, after suffering from a miscarriage, was denied an abortion to prevent infection.

She developed a septic infection, which she narrowly survived after a six-hour surgery. But, as the ad reads, “she’ll live with permanent damage forever … It’s been two years and she still hasn’t fully recovered.”

WHAT WILMINGTON WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by CNN’s ANDREW KACZYNSKI , who reports that in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, Trump campaign manager CHRIS LaCIVITA was among the several conservatives who blamed the then-president for the violence. The day of the insurrection, LaCivita reposted several posts harshly condemning Trump, suggesting that even some of his closest allies viewed the deadly day as a direct result of Trump’s lies.

CNN also reviewed a video showing a screen recording of posts that LaCivita liked on Jan. 6, including one from former Rep. BARBARA COMSTOCK (R-Va.), who called for Trump’s Cabinet to remove him from office via the 25th Amendment.

Campaign spokesperson JAMES SINGER shared the piece on X.

WHAT WILMINGTON DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by our IRIE SENTNER, who reports that less than two weeks out from Election Day, the escalating war in the Middle East looms large for many Arab Americans in Michigan, who are frustrated that Vice President Harris hasn’t done more to distance herself from President Biden on the issue.

“People are really right now in a dilemma. They really don’t know where to go. It’s like somebody hit them with a two by four, right on their head,” said OSAMA SIBLANI, the publisher of an Arab American newspaper based in Dearborn, Michigan. “So now they’re in total disarray. They may vote for Donald Trump, just to punish Biden and Harris, just to say, ‘Look what you’ve done.’”

The Oval

TOGETHER AGAIN: Not that anyone is keeping track of this stuff, but NSC spokesman JOHN KIRBY was back in the briefing room today alongside press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE.

That’s it. That’s the tweet.

‘YOUR 87-YEAR-OLD SENILE GRANDFATHER’: In his new book, veteran political journalist BOB WOODWARD has some insight into Biden donors who began expressing their concern about the president’s mental fitness as early as June 2023. At an event in Los Gatos, California, guests said the president was “frighteningly awful,” comparing it to “your 87-year-old senile grandfather” wandering around the room, saying to women guests, “Your eyes are so beautiful.”

Axios’ ALEX THOMPSON — who somehow got to at least page 181 of this thriller and did some stellar annotating — shared sections of the book on X, including one laying out the scene at a Chevy Chase, Maryland, fundraiser, also in June 2023, where BILL REICHBLUM said: “He never completed a sentence … He told the same story three times in exactly the same way and it meandered so much … Frankly, my impression was there were times … it was as though we didn’t exist. He was just rambling and talking as to what came into his head.”

THE BUREAUCRATS

SPEAKING OF SENILE: 94-year-old WARREN BUFFETT said he won’t back either presidential candidate this election cycle, Bloomberg’s ALEXANDRE RAJBHANDARI reports. Buffett’s position was laid out in a statement posted on the website of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway. The statement seeks to put an end to online speculation about Buffett’s support of political candidates and investment products.

Note: The businessman has endorsed Democrats in the past, including HILLARY CLINTON in 2016.

PERSONNEL MOVES: SARAH KATHRYN LASSEIGNE has been promoted to be deputy director of presidential scheduling at the White House. She most recently was associate director of presidential scheduling.

— GLENN SCHROEDER has been detailed to be a policy adviser for NEPA at the Council on Environmental Quality at the White House. He most recently was a program analyst at the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

KATE ARAS is now a records management specialist at the Executive Office of the President. She most recently was a program analyst at the National Archives and Records Administration.

Agenda Setting

THE LONGEST LOAN APPROVAL PROCESS EVER… The G-7 has finalized its $50 billion loan to Ukraine using seized Russian assets, Biden announced in a statement on Wednesday.

The loan, which administration officials called unprecedented, had been held up for months over concerns from some European countries involved about the legality of such a maneuver, in which the countries will front Ukraine the money and then use interest from the roughly $300 billion of seized Russian assets to pay back the loan.

For its part, the U.S. asked for and received promises from EU allies that sanctions on Russia would remain in place long enough to generate that interest and avoid a situation where taxpayers would be asked to foot the bill.

PLAY NICE, GUYS: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN confirmed that the U.S. government has “evidence” that North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia, our CSONGOR KÖRÖMI and STUART LAU report . Austin said it remains to be seen what exactly Pyongyang’s forces are doing there, but according to South Korean and Ukranian warnings, they are preparing to join Russia’s side in the war.

“If they’re a co-belligerent, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only on in Europe — It will also impact things in the Indo Pacific as well,” Austin said.

During Wednesday’s press briefing, Kirby said that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are in eastern Russia for early training, but the administration is not sure whether the soldiers will enter combat alongside the Russian military.

What We're Reading

These Democratic Voters Hiding in Plain Sight Could Be Harris’ Ticket to a North Carolina Win (POLITICO’s Michael Kruse)

The Three Factors That Will Decide The Election (The Atlantic’s George Packer)

Nicole Shanahan’s astonishing journey from tech royalty to rising MAGA star (WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin, Ashley Parker, Meryl Kornfield and Aaron Schaffer)

The first female executive chef in White House history on leading the kitchen for 30 years (WAMU’s Esther Ciammachilli and Chris Remington)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

In 2005, ELISABETH BUMILLER reported that Bush went on an 18-mile mountain bike ride at his Texas ranch. And of course, because no one would dare to exercise for an hour and a half without any music, he had his handy iPod with him, loaded with bops from country singers like GEORGE JONES, ALAN JACKSON and KENNY CHESNEY. No surprise there.

He also had hits from VAN MORRISON and JOHN FOGERTY, as well as JOHN HIATT’s “Circle Back” and JONI MITCHELL’s “(You’re so Square) Baby, I Don’t Care.” JOE LEVY, who served as deputy managing editor at Rolling Stone, said Bush’s playlist was interesting in part because “the president likes artists who don’t like him.” He was referring to Fogerty, who was a part of the anti-Bush “Vote for Change” concert tour.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Steve Shepard and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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