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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at national security adviser Jake Sullivan's latest statements on China, examine the impact of U.S. deportation flights of Chinese citizens who've violated U.S. immigration laws and examine a debate over Taiwan's citizenship law. And we profile a novel that puts Taipei at the center of an "American coming of age novel."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
Sullivan bullish on Biden China policies
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The Biden administration’s efforts to push back against Chinese trade and economic policies that undermine U.S. competitiveness are starting to pay off — that's the argument from national security adviser Jake Sullivan this week.
"Contrary to the predictions that the People's Republic of China would overtake the U.S. in GDP either in this decade or next, since President Biden took office the United States has more than doubled our lead and last year the U.S. attracted more than five times more inbound investment than the next highest country," Sullivan said at a Wednesday event at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
Sullivan said Biden administration moves including targeted tariffs on Chinese imports and steering public and private investment into rebuilding the U.S. high tech industrial base contributed to those gains.
But there are questions about the potential long term utility of the administration's strategy to outpace Beijing technologically and economically. China is managing to evade U.S. restrictions on high-end semiconductor exports. And Beijing is rallying BRICS countries — a grouping of emerging economies that along with China includes Brazil, Russia and India — to form a bloc of developing countries to compete with the economic partnerships that Biden is deepening with U.S. allies and partners.
Sullivan didn't mention Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in his comments. But their timing— just 13 days prior to the U.S. presidential election in which the economy is front-and-center — is a tacit nod to Harris' role in an administration claiming to have knocked back Beijing while helping rebuild the U.S. industrial base.
Sullivan also hinted that GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump's plans for steep across-board tariff increases — including a proposed 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports — would be counterproductive. Biden's application of tariffs has been "smart and strategic…[and] had a core logic, while "indiscriminate, broad based tariffs will harm workers and businesses, both in the United States and our partners," Sullivan said.
The specter of Beijing's growing economic might and the risk of "a second China shock" dominated Sullivan's remarks, which reiterated many of the dangers he outlined in a 2023 speech he gave on renewing American economic leadership.
Diversification of supply chains is essential "so that no country, particularly China, can hold us hostage," Sullivan said. Ensuring reliable access to critical minerals is necessary to prevent the U.S. from becoming "increasingly dependent on a country that has demonstrated its willingness to weaponize such dependencies," he added. Sullivan also warned of Chinese-connected vehicles getting “daily software updates” and “sending reams of information back” to China as a growing national security risk.
There are also domestic political obstacles to effectively competing with China that Sullivan blamed on the U.S. Congress. "Congress still hasn’t appropriated the 'science' part of CHIPS and Science, even while the PRC is increasing its science and technology budget by 10 percent year on year," Sullivan said.
And he called for congressional renewal next year of policy tools including the International Development Finance Corp. and the African Growth and Opportunity Act, arguing that they are essential for countering China's growing influence among developing countries. Congressional authorization for both of those programs expires in Sept. 2025.
Those renewals may get a cold shoulder if the GOP retains control of the House in the next Congress. House Republicans — led by firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) —have campaigned to cut funding for what she has described as "wasteful" international aid programs.
Mayorkas wrangles deportation flights of Chinese citizens
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Beijing has lifted its years-long refusal of repatriation flights of Chinese citizens who have violated their U.S. visa status — but don't call it a breakthrough yet.
A flight of Chinese deportees left the U.S. last week, the second such removal of visa violators that DHS has wrangled permission from Beijing to return since 2018. Those flights follow months of diplomatic arm-twisting by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. But neither DHS nor the Chinese government has signaled that those two flights are the start of a long term campaign to remove the huge numbers of Chinese citizens in the U.S. eligible for deportation.
Drop in the bucket. DHS estimated that Beijing was refusing to accept the return of "approximately 40,000 PRC nationals" in 2021. DHS declined to comment on specific steps it’s taking to continue such deportations and reduce the number of Chinese nationals currently in immigration detention.
Migrant surge. The number of Chinese citizens illegally entering the U.S. has soared in the past two years. U.S. authorities picked up more than 37,000 Chinese citizens who illegally crossed the Mexican border into the U.S. in 2023. That's a near-tenfold increase in the number of such detentions in 2022.
Skeptics abound. That makes those two flights "a pretty meaningless token… more electioneering publicity stunt than real deterrence," said Todd Bensman, former manager of counterterrorism intelligence at the Texas Department of Public Security and now a senior fellow at Washington-based nonprofit Center for Immigration Studies. GOP lawmakers are also dubious. "Why has there not been more aggressive diplomacy to pressure China…to accept more repatriation flights?" said Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Homeland Security Committee.
Resource poor. Green's counterpart on the other side of the aisle says DHS lacks the cash to pay for high numbers of deportation flights. The agency "needs appropriate resources to ensure all migrants are properly vetted, processed, and removed consistent with the outcome of their cases," said Rep. Benny Thompson (D-Miss.), ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee.
Denial reflex. Still, it does mark a departure from Beijing's long history of refusing the return of Chinese citizens who've violated U.S. immigration law. "We tried to do that in the Bush administration — turns out the Chinese don't want criminals back, they only wanted political dissidents," said Paul Rosenzweig, former DHS deputy assistant secretary for policy under President George W. Bush. Chinese authorities went so far as to declare prospective deportees' Chinese passports "fake" to justify denying their return, Rosenzweig said.
The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment.
Felons at large. DHS argued in 2021 that China's refusal to assist such deportations constituted a national security threat. Lack of space in immigration detention facilities compels U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement "to release hundreds of PRC nationals, many with convictions for violent crimes, into American communities, jeopardizing public safety."
GOP lawmakers share that threat assessment. The House Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability held a hearing entitled, "Security Risk: The Unprecedented Surge in Chinese Illegal Immigration" in May. Their Democratic committee colleagues dubbed the hearing "Another Republican border 'hearing' with invasion rhetoric and fear mongering."
Dreamers, not schemers. The Democrats' doubts may be justified. The vast majority of unauthorized Chinese migrants "are here to work and pursue an 'American dream' they don't see as possible in China — Chinese spies who are here have better, less risky ways to enter than crossing the border illegally and risking attention from DHS," argued Meredith Oyen, an associate professor of history at the University of Maryland Baltimore County and an expert on the role of migrants in the history of U.S.-China relations.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE WARNS ON CHINA NUKES: Beijing is undertaking a massive increase in its nuclear arsenal that will double its current number of warheads to more than 1,000 by 2030, the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report Wednesday. That's "the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history—almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S.," according to the report. U.S. efforts to coax Beijing into nonproliferation talks hit a brick wall in July after China suspended negotiations to protest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
— VATICAN'S BEIJING DEAL DRAWS U.S. FIRE: The chair of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom has criticized the Vatican's decision this week to extend a four-year agreement with the Chinese government allowing joint approval of new bishops in China's state-controlled Catholic Church. Chinese authorities "have continued to detain and forcibly disappear underground Catholic clergy who refuse to join the state-controlled Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association," said Stephen Schenke, chair of the federal government body. The agreement came days after Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute published a report entitled "Ten Persecuted Catholic Bishops in China."
The deal marks efforts to "seek continued improvement of ties," between the Vatican and Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on X Tuesday. Beijing has long aimed to prod the Holy See to normalize diplomatic ties —a move that would require the Vatican to drop its existing recognition of Taiwan. The Vatican's embassy in Washington referred POLITICO to the Holy See's press office, which didn't respond to a request for comment.
— GOP LAWMAKERS BASH PRETORIA'S TAIWAN MOVES: The South African government's efforts to compel Taiwan's unofficial diplomatic outpost in Pretoria to relocate outside of the capital is taking Republican heat on Capitol Hill.
That decision is "a clear result of Chinese Communist Party coercion and brazen interference into the affairs of other nations," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said in an X post Tuesday. McCaul urged the South African government to reverse its "misguided action" and leave the Taiwan outpost in place. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, accused South Africa of siding with "authoritarian aggression."
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) wants U.S. reprisals against Pretoria if it doesn't do so. The Biden administration should "make it clear that there will be consequences if South Africa works with the Chinese Communist Party to bully Taiwan," Blackburn said on X Monday. Top of Blackburn's hit list — booting South Africa from eligibility under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allows duty-free import access for hundreds of products.
The South African embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
EU'S NEXT FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF HARDENS STANCE ON CHINA: The EU's future top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, dropped the first sign of a potentially harder line on China this week, singling out Beijing's status as a systemic rival for the EU. (The EU officially recognizes China simultaneously as a partner — mostly on climate change — economic competitor and systemic rival.)
"My priority in engaging with China will be to safeguard the EU's geopolitical and economic security," Kallas said Wednesday in her written statement to the European Parliament preparing for her confirmation hearing. "The most pressing challenges here are China's support for Russia as well as structural imbalances between the EU and China that result from non-market policies and practices, which create unfair competition and an unlevel playing field."
The hearing, largely a formality, will take place early November. Kallas, like most other commissioners-designate, is widely expected to be approved and start her new job as early as December.
In her statement, which was in answer to the European Parliament, Kallas also refers to China as one of a number of "malign" external actors, adding: "Actors such as Russia, Iran, North Korea and partly China, aim at weaponizing interdependencies and exploiting the openness of our societies against us. For this, we must be prepared."
Other EU commissioners also call out China's challenge: The Trade and Economic Security Commissioner-designate Maroš Šefčovič said he would talk to China — and sharpen EU tools — to address "significant level playing field concerns linked to the negative externalities of China's state driven economic model and industrial policy, as well as the overcapacities that are distorting global markets and supply chains." Even the Mediterranean Commissioner-designate Dubravka Šuica called out Beijing's growing influence in the region, saying: "I am also fully conscious of the numerous challenges … Our rivals are making strides in the region. Countries such as China and Russia are imposing their own narratives and promoting their own interests, while the reputation of the EU is under pressure."
EU takes a hawkish turn to climate 'cooperation' with China: China may have wanted the EU to play a more constructive role in keeping the climate dialogue open as one of the few remaining areas without hostilities. The EU's incoming Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoestra, in his answers to Parliament, suggests that this won't be the theme for the next five years.
"The [European] Commission has taken important steps to address dependencies on China, but more is needed," he said. " To ensure a level playing field for [EU industries], the Commission will also use trade defense instruments where justified, as it has done with the anti-subsidy measures on electric cars imported from China."
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
Photo Credit: Crossroads 社團法人台灣全球連結發展協會 |
Taiwan's foreign residents seek citizenship
More than 5,000 foreign residents of Taiwan have signed an online petition urging the island's government to drop the requirement that applicants for Taiwanese nationality renounce their existing citizenship.
Those signatures compiled over a 60-day period that concluded Sunday meet the regulatory requirement for submission of the petition to Taiwan's government for an official response.
"Government agencies and policymakers have already been reaching out to us to learn more about our appeal," said David Chang, secretary-general of the Taiwan-based nonprofit advocacy group Crossroads, which focuses on boosting the country’s internationalization. The petition now goes to the Ministry of Interior, but "what we are seeking will require the legislature to enact a bill amending the Nationality Act," Chang said. Taiwan's diplomatic outpost in Washington said that the ministry will respond to the petition by the end of November.
There are around one million foreign citizens — the majority laborers from Southeast Asia — in Taiwan with temporary or permanent residency status. U.S. citizens constitute around 15,000 of that total. Chang argues restrictions on Taiwanese citizenship hurt the island, saying the demographic challenges of a rapidly aging society deplete its workforce and the ranks of its military at a time of rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
But those foreigners — even those who have spent decades on the island and consider it home — can't vote. And Taiwan has a thicket of rules restricting everything from certain jobs to subsidies for electrical scooter purchases to Taiwan citizens only. Taiwan also doesn't have birthright citizenship, so children of foreign nationals born on the island have no route to becoming Taiwanese citizens.
"The harm that stems from being perennial outsiders is intangible, but it still hurts," said Michael Turton, a U.S. citizen and columnist at the island's Taipei Times newspaper, who has lived in Taiwan for more than two decades.
Support from Capitol Hill looks unlikely. "I understand how sensitive and how difficult those [citizenship] issues are. I don’t think it’s helpful for me to jump into a discussion" about them in Taiwan, said Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.), a co-chair of the House Taiwan Caucus.
— MEET THE AXIS OF INDIGNATION: China insists its chumminess with dictators in North Korea, Russia and Iran doesn't rate them being considered a hostile "axis." That's the message the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry sent out in an emailed statement Wednesday. It's a response to the term "axis" seeping into a plethora of Washington think tanks' assessments of Beijing's ties with Tehran, Pyongyang and Moscow. They include the "axis of chaos," axis of disorder, axis of revisionists and — with a nod to former President George W. Bush —a new "axis of evil." Promoting "the 'axis' narrative will only exacerbate tensions in an already chaotic world, causing more conflicts and contradictions," the statement said.
— MICROSOFT ISSUES CHINESE HACKER ALERT: Chinese hackers are joining counterparts from Iran and Russia in a potentially major influence operation ahead of the U.S. elections, Microsoft said in a report released Wednesday. The Chinese government-linked influence operation known as "Spamouflage" has "parroted antisemitic messages, amplified accusations of corruption and promoted opposition candidates," the report said. Microsoft found that Spamouflage was spreading posts critical of Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.). POLITICO's Maggie Miller has the full story here.
HEADLINES
Skift: Why are airlines quiet quitting China?
South China Morning Post: China's 35 million 'leftover men' spark foreign brides idea to tackle gender imbalance
Wall Street Journal: Behind the mysterious downfall of China's missing foreign minister
Bloomberg: In China, Harris is mostly seen as preferred to volatile Trump
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
Taipei at Daybreak | Photo Credit: Rebecca Wright |
The Book: Taipei at Daybreak
The Author: Brian Hioe is the founder of New Bloom Magazine which covers activism and youth politics in Taiwan
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Why did the world need an "American coming of age novel" set in Taipei, of all places?
The novel largely draws from my own background as someone caught between conflicting identities – Taiwanese and American — while not being simply one or the other. My own experiences are deeply bound up with the political upheavals that Taiwan went through around the time of the 2014 Sunflower Movement.
Taipei is more than just a backdrop for some story of personal discovery in the novel. The social and political context of Taipei in the early 2010s could be said to itself be a character in the story.
What role does Taiwan's 2014 Sunflower Movement protests play in driving the novel's plot?
The book centers around a number of social movements, including Occupy Wall Street in New York in 2011, the anti-nuclear protests that rocked Japan in 2012 in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, and the 2014 Sunflower Movement.
The most significant of these – for the protagonist and for myself – was the Sunflower Movement. That involved the youth-led occupation of the Taiwanese legislature in 2014 in protest of a trade deal that Taiwan's then-government sought with China. It was a generational moment for Taiwanese young people and was a powerfully transformative moment in my own personal growth.
A subplot of the book is that the protagonist's family members were complicit in Taiwan's multi-decade "White Terror" period of authoritarian repression. Explain.
The many Asian American books and novels about Taiwan in recent years often come from a place of cultural pride — emphasizing resistance against past authoritarianism. But what does it mean to stand against authoritarianism but to have a family background tied to those who benefited from it?
This was something that many participants in the Sunflower Movement of "waishengren" [外省人- Chinese citizens who fled to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949] descent grappled with in 2014, including myself.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Maggie Miller and digital producers Emma Cordover and Natália Delgado. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com slau@politico.com
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