Good morning from Washington, D.C., where it’s full steam ahead for the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. The heavy-hitters have arrived in the U.S. capital after a relatively quiet start of the week, as a series of high-level meetings ramp up, starting with this morning’s G20 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ gathering. Other well-known faces are also in town. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is due to speak at a leadership reception at the St. Regis Hotel this evening; IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva will host European finance ministers for dinner tonight in the management dining room at IMF headquarters; while last night the heads of Saudi Arabia’s top banks wined and dined attendees at a glitzy reception at the Fairmont, one of a slew of events taking place across the city. ECONOMY MATTERS TRADE WARNING: First the IMF warned in its latest World Economic Outlook this week about the negative impact of tariffs on the world economy; yesterday it was the turn of ECB chief Christine Lagarde to sound the alarm amid signs that markets are pricing in the very real prospect of a second Trump presidency. Calling it out: “Periods of restrictions and barriers have not been periods of prosperity and strong leadership around the world,” Lagarde said at the Atlantic Council. “So whoever in this country is ultimately the president, I think, should at least bear that in mind.” Preparing the ground: Donald Trump has promised a universal tariff of up to 20 percent on all imports, with higher restrictions on goods from China and Mexico. (His rival for president, Kamala Harris, has also pledged to raise tariffs, but to a lesser extent, and slammed Trump’s plan as a “20 percent sales tax” during a CNN townhall last night.) As POLITICO’s trade team reports , business associations here in Washington are panicking at the prospect of a Trump administration — representatives from a broad range of technology firms, manufacturers, retailers and agricultural producers have been lobbying Congress to pursue safeguards that would rein in a president’s ability to impose new tariffs. Economists unite: America’s wealthiest individuals are continuing to nail their political colors to the mast. While many tech billionaires are all in for Trump, Bill Gates said he donated $50 million to the Harris campaign, in an unusually blunt expression of his political views. Yesterday, 23 Nobel Prize winning economists weighed in, coming out in support of Harris’ economic plans. “While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we believe that, overall, Harris’ economic agenda will improve our nation’s health, investment, sustainability, resilience, employment opportunities, and fairness and be vastly superior to the counterproductive economic agenda of Donald Trump,” the letter states. Reining in Musk: Meanwhile billionaire tech guru-turned-Trump supporter Elon Musk has been warned by the Justice Department that his $1 million giveaway to registered voters who sign a petition may be illegal, as election interference allegations intensify in the run-up to the election. Edge-of-seat time: Two polls out this morning have worrying news for the Harris campaign. Trump has edged ahead of Harris in the national race a new poll by the Wall Street Journal has found. The Republican nominee has also overtaken Harris as the candidate Americans trust most with the economy, according to the FT and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business’ final monthly poll before the election. TACKLING DEBT EASING THE DEBT BURDEN: Finance chiefs are meeting here in Washington amid dire warnings from the IMF last week that the world’s debt burden is hurtling out of control, with global public debt expected to pass $100 trillion by the end of the year. Tell me about it: But for advocates for low-income countries, the issue of debt sustainability is nothing new. “The international financial architecture is not working in terms of addressing debt restructuring, but also for preventing debt crises,” said Iolanda Fresnillo of Eurodad, a network of 60 NGOs. “Debt reform cannot wait any longer.” How to change: In a new report presented at the annual meetings this week, Eurodad has outlined ten reform proposals to tackle unsustainable debt, including the creation of a multilateral sovereign-debt resolution mechanism and a global debt registry to improve transparency. Reality check: The challenge of the debt burden is staggering — more than 3 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt interest payments than on health care or education, according to a recent report. Seize the moment: Fresnillo points to next summer’s International Conference on Financing for Development in Spain — the first since 2015 — as a key moment. “There is a window of opportunity,” she said. “This is a forum where all member states will have to agree on an outcome in relation to how the world finances development, not only in terms of the flows, but the structure and rules for financing development.” UN role: In particular, organizations like Eurodad want the process to take place within the U.N., rather than the IMF or G20. Fresnillo argued that the U.N. already has a mandate, through the financing for development process. It also means that a greater number of debtor countries are at the table. “We need a space where both borrowers and lenders can meet and discuss on an equal footing.” CLIMATE FINANCING MDB’S STEP UP: With the COP climate change talks in Azerbaijan just a few weeks away, some of the big multilateral development banks (MDBs) — lending institutions like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) — are upping their game in terms of climate finance. On the ground: The European Investment Bank (EIB) and Caribbean Development Bank will today announce a program to boost climate resilience across 14 Caribbean countries, focused on water supply and stormwater management. Earlier this week, the EIB, Inter-American Development Bank and Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley unveiled a new debt-for-climate swap, which will lead to savings of 4.5 percent of GDP for Barbados. “This is the kind of innovative, impactful project that is helping to mobilize climate finance, which is supporting highly indebted countries,” EIB chief Nadia Calviño told POLITICO. AIIB in focus: One lender which has ramped-up investment in climate is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) a relative newcomer on the MDB scene but which has emerged as a behemoth since its establishment in 2016, fueled by a $100 billion capitalization. The green agenda: “The bank was created just after the Paris Agreement, so from day one, the importance of financing for environmental improvement, for climate change was very strong,” said AIIB President Jin Liqun , adding that the issue has moved rapidly up the agenda over the last few years. The bank’s share of climate financing tripled from 21 percent in 2016 to 60 percent last year. World Bank collaboration: Though something of an upstart, the AIIB has become a key partner for the World Bank. The Asia-based institution provided a $1 billion in loan guarantees to the bank last year , allowing it to issue new lending. Jin confirms that a further deal is in the offing. “Both sides agree that we can continue to explore the possibility of another guarantee project. The working teams are working together on some of the technical issues,” he said, following a meeting with World Bank President Ajay Banga Wednesday. “Since we have already successfully done the first project of $1 billion, I’m sure there could be another one.” Beijing’s role: With China the largest shareholder in the AIIB, Jin was clear-eyed about how the bank has been perceived. Many view the Beijing-headquartered lender as a Chinese-led challenger to the World Bank, at a time when China is already lending aggressively through the Belt and Road Initiative. It has also faced accusations of infiltration by the Chinese government. Upstart lender: Jin, who worked for the World Bank in the 1980s before becoming China’s first vice president at the Asian Development Bank, said “there were a series of questions about whether it was going to undermine the World Bank” when the AIIB was established in 2016. But he argued that the AIIB showed that it was “not a bank where all the rules of the game were settled and you come and join” — a subtle dig perhaps at the governance structure of the eight-decade old Bretton Woods institutions. All the world’s a stage: Though China holds close to 27 percent of the voting power, the bank now has more than 100 members, including the G7 countries, with the notable exception of the United States and Japan. AROUND TOWN FIRST STOP, NEW YORK: Washington may be a little quieter than usual as congressional members and staffers hit the campaign trail ahead of the Nov. 5 election, so many IMF-World Bank attendees have incorporated a trip to the Big Apple during their visit. Pressing the flesh: India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met with Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser and BlackRock’s Larry Fink in New York earlier in the week, while German finance chief Christian Lindner paid a visit to the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday before heading to D.C. TAKE YOUR PICK: It’s the world’s biggest international financial institution, so naturally the World Bank is happy to showcase the culinary delights of the globe. Among the food options on offer at the pop-up food trucks installed near I Street are handmade empanadas, Egyptian street food and a tasty selection of bao buns and rice bowls offered by D.C. eatery, B’und.up. PREPPING FOR COP: The Azerbaijan delegation is out in force this week. Mukhtar Babayev , the country’s minister for ecology and natural resources, and COP President-Designate and lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev have been spotted around IMF-World Bank headquarters rushing between meetings. AGENDA — Press Conference with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, IMF HQ 1 Meeting Halls A & B, 8 a.m. — Women Transforming the World, World Bank Atrium, 9 a.m. Speakers include World Bank President Ajay Banga; U.K. Minister for Development and Women & Equalities Anneliese Dodds; Nigerian Finance Minister Adebayo Olawale Edun and Sandra Ablamba Johnson, secretary-general of the presidency of Togo. — Regional Outlook for Asia Pacific Region Press Conference, IMF HQ1 Meeting Halls A & B, 9:15 a.m. — G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, IMF HQ2 Conference Hall 1, 9:45 a.m.-12:45 a.m. World Bank MC C2-350, 11:30 a.m. — “Pathways to tackling Africa’s debt crisis through improved credit ratings,” co-hosted by the U.N. Development Programme, Africatalyst and Brookings, at Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, 10 a.m. — Gulf Cooperation Council and the World Bank Group: Partnership for the Future, World Bank, MC C2-350, 11:30 a.m. — Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko on economic aid and recovery in Ukraine, Atlantic Council, 11 a.m. — Spanish Minister for Economy, Business, and Trade Carlos Cuerpo, Atlantic Council, 1 p.m. — Debate on the global economy: Addressing the Low Growth-High Debt Conundrum, IMF HQ1 Atrium, 2:45 p.m. Speakers include IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; economist Laura Alfaro; Finance minister of Angola Vera Esperança dos Santos Daves de Sousa; Klaas Knot, president of the Dutch central bank; Jean Pisani-Ferry, senior fellow with Bruegel; moderated by Martin Wolf of the Financial Times. — Devex World; Studio Theater, Washington, D.C., 9 a.m. Speakers include Axel van Trotsenburg, senior managing director, World Bank; David Beasley, former head of U.N. World Food Programme; Wendy Kopp, CEO of Teach For All; Gayle Smith, former USAID administrator. — Semafor’s World Economy Summit; Gallup Great Hall, 2:30 p.m. Speakers include Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Vincent Van Peteghem, White House National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard, UBS Group CEO Sergio P. Ermotti. — “The Global Megatrend of Population Aging: Implications for Developing Countries’” salon dinner at the Hay Adams Hotel, hosted by AARP, from 7 p.m. Thanks to editor Sanya Khetani-Shah. | 
