| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | HURRICANE LATEST — AP: “More than 3 million without power as Hurricane Milton slams Florida, causes deaths and flooding” … landfall south of Tampa, avoiding worst-case scenario … no drinking water in St. Petersburg … tornadoes criss-cross the state … still a hurricane as it moves offshore at Cape Canaveral HOW HARRIS WINS — “Here’s What Harris Must Do to Seal the Deal,” by Jonathan Martin: “This is an extraordinarily close race and [KAMALA] HARRIS must do more to signal that she’ll govern from the political center.”
|  Donald Trump's campaign is betting that support from young men will help propel him to the White House. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | TRUMP’S PLAY: BROS & BLACK MEN — We’ve spent a lot of time writing about DONALD TRUMP’s problems with women. This morning, we look at the other side of that coin with a pair of stories centered on men in this election cycle … — THE BROS: It’s no secret that Trump has long cultivated a macho image, wooing young men in order to make up for the women voters who are hightailing it away from him. He’s done that over the years by attending college wrestling championships, socializing at frat houses and UFC fights — even providing boxing match commentary alongside DON JR. Rather than pick a running mate who appealed to suburban women in swing states, he chose JD VANCE, who was engineered to appeal to that self-styled alpha male crowd. And let’s not forget about that RNC speech by HULK HOGAN, who ripped his shirt off on stage during one of the most viral moments of the convention. Now Team Trump “is betting that support from young men will help propel him to the White House,” Alex Isenstadt reports. And they’re getting a hand from some popular Trump allies who are plotting a massive get-out-the-vote effort in hopes of turning out the bros.
|  The Nelk Boys plan to capitalize on college football game tailgates, gaming sites, male-friendly podcasts, even Tinder and the “‘Hawk Tuah’ Girl” podcast. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | The Nelk Boys, pro-Trump millennial pranksters with 8.2 million YouTube subscribers, are launching a multi-million-dollar voter registration campaign, Alex scoops. They plan to capitalize on college football game tailgates, gaming sites, male-friendly podcasts, even Tinder and the “‘Hawk Tuah’ Girl” podcast. (The latter of which one of us had the misfortune of Googling last night…) “It’s the latest effort in an all-out campaign by the former president to turn out young men, a demographic his campaign views as critical to his election given the overwhelming support Harris is expected to receive from young women,” Alex writes. “The question the Trump operation faces, however, is whether it can turn out a subset of voters his allies concede are uncertain to cast ballots.” Related read: “Tim Walz Rally Is Livestreamed on Twitch in Pitch to Young Voters,” by NYT’s Simon Levien — BLACK MEN: We wrote this weekend about Harris’ Michigan problems, as Arab Americans fume about the administration’s stance toward Israel and some auto workers worry about their jobs amid the push toward EVs. Here’s another Harris jam in the Wolverine State: Some Black men just aren’t that into her. Yes, polls show that Harris overwhelmingly carries Black voters overall. But she’s lost ground to Trump among Black men. And it’s unclear if her campaign is taking that threat seriously enough. That’s the topline from Brakkton Booker’s new reporting from Detroit, where he spoke to nearly three dozen strategists, activists, clergy members and elected officials — almost all of them Black men — and all had the same message: Harris isn’t doing enough to reach Black men, and that could have major electoral implications. “I am worried about turnout in Detroit,” JAMAL SIMMONS, a former communications director for the vice president and a Detroit native, told Brakkton. “Do they have the machine to turn people out?” “We continue to have this widening apathy in cities like Detroit … [Harris] hasn’t done anything to change that,” added SCOTT HOLIDAY, an HBCU grad and executive director of Greater Detroit, a voter mobilization group. What they have heard from the Harris camp doesn’t seem to be connecting, per Brakkton: “Some said their appeals come off as condescending. Others added that party officials and surrogates often question their intelligence if they inquire about how their lives will change under a Harris administration. Others lament the campaign hasn’t reached out to enough well-known grassroots organizations, who hear firsthand about the apathy from Black voters in marginalized neighborhoods like Belmont and Delray.” And yet there are mixed signals coming from the campaign about how seriously they’re taking the twin threats of apathy and Trump’s inroads with Black men. On the one hand, Brakkton notes that the campaign has deployed high-profile Black surrogates to the area: NBA Hall of Famer EARVIN “MAGIC” JOHNSON, New York AG TISH JAMES, Democratic Party elder statesman Rep. JAMES CLYBURN (D-S.C.), Gen-Z Rep. MAXWELL FROST (D-Fla.) and actress KERRY WASHINGTON, among others. At the same time, Harris’ campaign “scoffs at the notion that former President Donald Trump's overtures are landing with Black voters,” Brakkton writes. “Trump is more interested in using us as a backdrop than addressing Black men’s concerns in Michigan, but no amount of photo ops changes Trump’s record spiking unemployment and his Project 2025 plans to take away our health care,” said EDDIE McDONALD, a Michigan senior adviser for the Harris campaign. Perplexingly, Harris hasn’t done any big events focused primarily on Black men. While her campaign says she’s making appeals to them privately — just not in front of the media, so she can be frank — many of these voters want to be wooed publicly. And not just by surrogates, but by Harris herself. “When you come to Detroit and you don't meet with Detroit pastors, that's a layup that you missed hard,” said Bishop CORY CHAVIS of Victory Community Church. Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Banning IVF, abortion, and many types of contraception. Creating a national pregnancy registry. Criminalizing porn. Making you pay more for healthcare and housing. Sound like a nightmare? No - it's Project 2025. And if Trump is elected, it will be the MAGA movement's dream that the corrupt Supreme Court justices made come true. But we can vote to stop them – learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | ABOUT LAST NIGHT — “Senate rivals Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego clash on border security and abortion in debate,” by Arizona Republic’s Ronald Hansen: “Both candidates traded insults and clashed repeatedly on border security and abortion rights in an event that constantly reflected the personal hostility that has hung over the race.” SPEAKING OF DEBATES — “Trump ends speculation on another debate: ‘There will be no rematch,’” by Kierra Frazier: “His refusal to debate, even on the friendly territory of Fox News, suggests he is unwilling to risk the unpredictability of a head-to-head contest with the vice president in the final weeks of the campaign.” JUST POSTED — The Atlantic is issuing an endorsement for the presidential election, backing KAMALA HARRIS over DONALD TRUMP. It marks just the fifth time The Atlantic is endorsing in its history, with two of the other instances coming in 2016 for HILLARY CLINTON and 2020 for JOE BIDEN. “Harris doesn’t curry favor with dictators. She won’t abuse the power of the highest office in order to keep it. She believes in democracy.” Read the full endorsement
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies to gut the checks and balances that protect American freedoms.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out What we’re watching … The fate of Omaha’s electoral vote is getting all the attention these days, but don’t forget about its swingy House seat: Centrist Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) is facing a tough race from Democratic state Sen. TONY VARGAS, who is leading in multiple recent polls. But Bacon got a major endorsement last week — from ANN ASHFORD, the widow of former Rep. BRAD ASHFORD (D-Neb.), whom Bacon beat in 2016. He’s now up with a direct-to-camera ad from Ms. Ashford — though we’ll note that real Nebraska politics junkies might not be all that surprised: Mr. Ashford endorsed Bacon in 2022 after his wife lost the Democratic nomination to a more progressive Democrat. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning, and throughout the day will receive briefings on Hurricane Milton along with the vice president. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:30 p.m. On the trail Harris will hold a rally in Phoenix in the evening. Vance will host a town hall event in Greensboro, North Carolina, at 6 p.m.
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Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn raked in more than $3.2 million in the third quarter, | Osborn For Senate | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Nebraska Senate candidate DAN OSBORN raked in more than $3.2 million in the third quarter, according to figures first shared with Playbook. None of the total raised this quarter came from corporate PAC money and Osborn raised more than $1 million in the first week of October alone, as the independent pushes his race to unseat GOP Sen. DEB FISCHER tighter in the final weeks of the campaign. Adding to the pressure on Fischer, a new poll conducted by Change Research has Osborn with a lead of 46% to 43% among likely voters. Breaking down Osborn’s support, he receives 94% backing among self-identified Democrats, 68% support among independents and 20% from self-identified Republicans. At the top of the ticket, the poll finds Trump with a 58% to 38% lead over Harris. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE CASH DASH — The Harris campaign has now passed a major milestone: Since entering the race, Harris has totaled more than $1 billion in fundraising, NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Jonathan Allen and Carol Lee report. “That figure includes money raised by the campaign committee itself and by a campaign-affiliated joint fundraising committee that also collects cash for the Democratic National Committee and state parties.” And yet, some top campaign leaders are “worried that they still might not have enough to win — and that news of the windfall could hurt the campaign by dampening fundraising in the final weeks,” WaPo’s Michael Scherer reports. TRUMP’S LATEST TAX PLAY — In a statement given exclusively to the WSJ, Trump said he “supports lowering taxes on U.S. citizens who live abroad, marking a new attempt by the former president to win support from an often-overlooked group of voters,” Richard Rubin and Alex Leary write. RACE FOR THE SENATE CRABCAKES AND HOSTILITY — “Maryland Senate Race Becomes a Slugfest as Both Parties Eye High Stakes,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater: ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and LARRY HOGAN “are set to meet Thursday for their only debate of the race at a time when the contest has veered decidedly negative.” RACE FOR THE STATES DEMOGRAPHIC DIVE — The 19th’s Mel Leonor Barclay has a look at the election through the lens of Latina voters, who surveys show have “exceedingly high rates of support for gun control policies,” which could prove to be an animating issue at the ballot box next month. “This is even more true in Arizona, where about two-thirds of Latinx voters back tougher gun regulations, a position that’s driven by the overwhelming support for these measures among Latinas in the state, across the ideological spectrum.” POLL POSITION FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new poll from 1892 Polling conducted for the NRCC out of Texas’ 34th Congressional District finds Democratic Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ and Republican MAYRA FLORES with a three-point lead among likely voters, 49% to 46%, well within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. Looking up the ticket, Trump holds the three-point lead, 49% to 46%, suggesting that Trump’s strength could tip the scale in Flores’ favor on Election Day. See the polling memo National: Harris +4, per The Economist/YouGov. … Florida: Trump +4 and Sen. RICK SCOTT +2, per Marist. … Ohio: Trump +6 and Sen. SHERROD BROWN +2, per Marist. … Texas: Trump +7 and Sen. TED CRUZ +5, per Marist. … Michigan: Trump +4 and ELISSA SLOTKIN and MIKE ROGERS tied, per Quinnipiac. … Pennsylvania: Harris +2 and Sen. BOB CASEY +8, per Quinnipiac. … Wisconsin: Trump +2 and Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN +4, per Quinnipiac. Trump +1, per Arc Insights. … Arizona: Trump +1, per ActiVote. … Georgia: Trump +1, per the Trafalgar Group.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MEDIAWATCH
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CBS News' aired two different answers by Kamala Harris to the same question on “60 Minutes” and “Face the Nation.” | Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo | MORE DRAMA AT CBS — The Trump campaign is demanding CBS News release a full transcript of Harris’ “60 Minutes” interview after “Face the Nation” and the flagship newsmagazine aired two different answers by Harris to the same question. During an exchange about Israel and Gaza, both shows’ edits begin with Bill Whitaker saying “But it seems that Prime Minister [BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU is not listening.”
- On the “60 Minutes” edit, Harris responds: “We are not gonna stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.”
- On the “Face the Nation” edit, Harris responds: “Well, Bill, the work that we have done has resulted in a number of movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by or a result of many things, including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region.”
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump demanded that the incident be investigated, calling it “the very definition of FAKE NEWS!” Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is distancing itself from the drama, with a campaign spox telling Variety in a statement: “We do not control CBS’s production decisions and refer questions to CBS.” CONGRESS CLEARING THE BASES — Lawmakers from both parties said they will fight back if Trump makes good on his pledge to put a Confederate general’s name back on an Army base if he’s reelected, Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Paul McLeary report. Trump has said he would support changing the Army’s Fort Liberty back to Fort Bragg — undoing the work of a congressional renaming commission. If Trump tries to reverse it, lawmakers could use legislation to attempt to stop him. “The law was you had to get rid of the Confederate names, and the commission was to determine what those names should be,” Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), who led legislation to create the renaming panel, said in a brief interview. “The law was passed, it’s not going to go backward.” Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), who spearheaded the legislation in the Senate, also argued the renaming is a done deal. TO THE LETTER — “Senator urges DOJ to investigate youth treatment centers after probe uncovers ‘rampant abuse,’” by NBC’s Tyler Kingkade
| | | | A message from United for Democracy:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Joe Biden yesterday over the phone. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Following Biden and Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s first contact in months yesterday, “neither the U.S. nor Israel signaled the two leaders reached agreement” on Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran, though they agreed to stay in touch, WSJ’s Nancy Youssef and Carrie Keller-Lynn report. “U.S. officials are frustrated that they have been repeatedly caught off guard by Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, and are seeking to head off further escalation. Some had hoped the U.S. would learn more about what Israel was contemplating during a planned meeting Wednesday between Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN at the Pentagon, but Gallant postponed his trip, the Pentagon said.” Related reads: “Netanyahu-Gallant rivalry complicates Israeli response to Iran attack,” by WaPo’s Steve Hendrix and Shira Rubin in Jerusalem … “Nearly a Million Civilians Flee War in Lebanon, U.N. Says,” by NYT’s Aaron Boxerman, Aryn Baker, Ben Hubbard and Alan Yuhas WAR IN UKRAINE — U.S. officials said yesterday that Russia has made slow but steady gains in recent weeks against Ukraine, though it has come at a steep cost: the bloodiest month in the nearly three-year war, Paul McLeary reports. “Casualties from the offensives in the Donbas have brought Russia’s total number of dead and wounded to over 600,000, according to officials granted anonymity to brief reporters at the Pentagon on the course of the war.” POLICY CORNER THE PATH OF KHAN — Plenty of ink has been spilled on FTC Chair LINA KHAN in glossy profile stories, as she has overhauled her agency to take on some of the biggest companies in the U.S., making her plenty of enemies while also earning her street cred across the aisle. Now, Bloomberg’s Josh Eidelson and Max Chafkin examine what comes next for Khan as a new administration prepares to take over in January. “Harris has avoided weighing in for or against Khan, but she’s proposed expanding the FTC’s authority to include ‘price gouging’ on food. Khan seems ready to take her up on that idea — and to serve another term. ‘It certainly feels like, in some ways, there’s a lot more work to do,’ she says.” SPEAKING OF BIG-TIME FACE-OFFS — “Will the DOJ really dismantle Google? Here’s what happens next,” by Brendan Bordelon and Mohar Chatterjee BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE WORM TURNS IN THE BIG APPLE — Amid the ongoing scandal that threatens to derail the political career of NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS, a new twist could entirely upend the race to replace him and set up a political matchup for the ages: Tish James is considering a run, NYT’s Jeffery Mays and Emma Fitzsimmons report. “Her decision is far from assured and is not imminent; some close to her stressed her ambivalence, if not reluctance. But those urging Ms. James to run say the calculus might be altered if a different sullied political leader enters the race: the former governor she helped push out of office, ANDREW M. CUOMO.” JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court seems likely to give Oklahoma death row inmate a new day in court,” by AP’s Mark Sherman
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump called Janet Mills a man in a call with Maine supporters. Andrew Giuliani is trying to hang on to his dad Rudy’s Yankees World Series rings. Ivanka Trump is believing in the Mets again. IN MEMORIAM — “Donald L. Barlett, former Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter for The Inquirer and best-selling author, has died at 88,” by the Philly Inquirer’s Gary Miles: “Donald L. Barlett, 88, of Philadelphia, two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter for The Inquirer, award-winning writer and editor for Time Inc. and Vanity Fair magazine, onetime investigative reporter for the Plain Dealer in Cleveland and Chicago Daily News, and best-selling author, died Saturday, Oct. 5, of complications from age-associated decline at his home in Chestnut Hill.” OUT AND ABOUT — The Harris Action Fund hosted an event in Georgetown yesterday evening with former VP Al Gore and many of his longtime supporters and staff from around the country to raise money for the campaign in a reunion of sorts. Hosts and co-hosts included Melissa Moss, Philip Dufour, Peter Knight, Roy Neal, Beth Prichard Greer, Mitchell Berger, Alan Kessler, Carter Eskew, Larry Harrington, Nick Baldick, Reed Hundt, Carol Pensky, Skila Harris, Susan Lambert, Tom Hendrickson, Jody Trapasso and Ken Jarin. — SPOTTED at a launch reception for Bill O’Keeffe’s new song, “Fight for Freedom,” at the Hay Adams yesterday, where O’Keeffe dedicated the song to Trump and granted his campaign unlimited rights to use the song: Athena O’Keeffe, Emily Lampkin, Marc Lampkin, David Keene, Jim Carter, Jason Mulvihill, Karen Kerrigan, Shelley Hymes, Loretta Greene, George Braun and Sue Zoldak. — Partners for Automated Vehicle Education hosted its annual meeting at K&L Gates yesterday evening, where NHTSA Deputy Administrator Sophie Shulman gave the keynote. SPOTTED: Mark Rosekind, Ron Thaniel, Brad Stertz, Tara Andringa, Katelyn Magney-Miller, Marsha Camp, India Herdman, Hilary Cain, John Ohly, Melissa Wade, Allante Whitmore, Wiley Deck, Greg Cote, David Carter, Scott Matus, Megan Foster, Tim Goodman, Rachel Rathmore, Tony Cooke, Nicole Dupuis, Nanette Schieke, Steve Osborne and Finch Fulton. WEDDING — Anne Gordon, VP for international tax policy at the National Foreign Trade Council, and Michael Kosin, systems analyst at ManTech, got married on Saturday at St. Luke in McLean, Virginia, where they departed in style in Anne’s grandfather’s 1964 Pontiac Tempest. The ceremony was followed by a reception at Murray Hill in Leesburg where they were joined by their dog, Stanley. Pic, via Julia Larina Photography … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) … Fox Corp’s Brian Nick … NYT’s Adam Nagourney … Raj Shah … Natalie Montelongo of Pivotal Ventures … Alexandra LaManna … State Department’s Spencer Anderson ... Matt Rohan of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce … POLITICO’s Clea Benson, Laura DiAngelo and Sebastian Godoy … S-3 Group’s Michael Long … APCO’s Brandon Neal … Jason Mida … Jessica Powell of Invariant … Adnan Mohamed … Christina Harvey of Stand Up America … Guillermo Meneses … Michael Borden of Sidley Austin … former Reps. Joe Pitts (R-Pa.) and Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) … Dirk Maurer … Seth Levey … Raquel Krähenbühl … Laurence Tribe … Healy Baumgardner … Caroline Wren … Tanveer Kathawalla … Erin O’Malley … Alex Bumpers … Noah Baker of Bernie Moreno’s Ohio Senate campaign … Heather K. Sager of the American Association for Justice … Andrew Smith of Rep. Bob Latta’s (R-Ohio) office ... Casey Enders Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Project 2025 is a policy blueprint created by the far-right Heritage Foundation meant to gut America’s system of checks and balances. Their goal? Take control of the government… and our lives.
If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies like banning IVF and setting up a national abortion and pregnancy registry to force states to report abortion data. While raising taxes on middle-class Americans, they’ll also remove many environmental protections so companies can pollute our air, soil, and water with known cancer-causing toxic chemicals.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
In fact, they already deemed a president immune from all criminal acts they deem “official,” and stripped women of their reproductive freedom.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf, before it’s too late.
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