The men who love Trump — but might not vote for him

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Oct 18, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Catherine Kim

Young voter Matthew Paley stands outside the Republican National Convention.

Young voter Matthew Paley stands outside the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Michael Mathes/AFP via Getty Images

CHASING THE BRO VOTE — Donald Trump is going back to his pro-wrestling roots. He’s expected to be interviewed by famed professional wrestler Mark Calaway, better known to America as The Undertaker.

It’s the latest in a media blitz that’s aimed at young, male voters, who are more likely to vote for him by a large margin than their female counterparts, according to multiple recent polls. Trump has also made appearances on podcasts hosted by Barstool Sports, the comedian Andrew Schulz and the Nelk Boys, all popular fare among young men.

There’s just one problem — getting that group to vote isn’t so simple.

Since 1980, young men have registered and voted at lower rates than young women in every presidential election , and the turnout gap has only increased in recent election cycles. In the 2020 presidential election, turnout for young women was 11 percentage points higher than young men.

Polling from Gallup last week speaks to the problem: Supporters of former president Donald Trump between the ages of 18 to 29 — who are mostly men — just aren’t enthusiastic about voting. Only 34 percent say they are “extremely motivated to vote,” compared to 50 percent for young supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris.

That lagging level of enthusiasm is far behind that of any other Trump-voting demographic.

Daniel Cox, a pollster and director at the non-partisan Survey Center on American Life, says the gap in enthusiasm is caused by a lack of policy priorities among young men who are already apathetic about the political system. It’s a stark contrast to young women who — despite also being unhappy with both political parties — have been rallying behind issues of abortion and reproductive health, with 39 percent of women under 30 saying abortion is the most important issue in the November election.

“We ran some focus groups in Philadelphia among young women and young men, and I believe every single woman in the groups that we talked to mentioned abortion,” Cox said. “And then men were kind of scattered. If you don’t love the candidate, don’t love the political parties, having an issue that matters to you can be a good substitute for providing a reason to vote. I think while a lot of young women have that, for young men it’s not clear.”

The Trump campaign’s media strategy is designed to address that by putting the former president and his running mate on podcasts with large male audiences. There’s no question he’s reaching potential Trump voters: His episode on Schulz’s “Flagrant” podcast received a robust 4.9 million views in the span of nine days on YouTube.

Where that strategy falls short, however, is that the podcast interviews do little to address issues that could unite young men as a voting group, which in turn would motivate them to turn out at higher rates.

“The current concerns with Trump is that he is not that engaged in policies, and he’s not articulating proposals that people believe will make their lives better,” Cox said. “And so if he’s just yucking it up with podcast shows, they may like him a little bit more, but it’s not necessarily going to get them to go out and cast a vote for him.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at ckim@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ck_525.

What'd I Miss?

— Trove of Jack Smith’s evidence against Trump remains largely shielded from public view after all: Donald Trump’s opponents were hoping for more bombshells in Jack Smith’s final document dump before the election. Today, those hopes fizzled. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan unsealed portions of four large volumes of the special counsel’s evidence against Trump — but most of the materials remained redacted from public view. And the small number of materials that were released on the court docket consisted almost entirely of previously public documents.

— Biden tells Israel to use Sinwar’s death as ‘opportunity’ to end war: President Joe Biden called the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “a moment of justice” and urged the Israeli government to “make this moment an opportunity” to end the year-long war in Gaza. Biden made the comments midday today in Berlin, where he is meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders.

— Fox News disputes Trump’s claim that its employees helped write his jokes: Donald Trump says Fox News employees helped him write his jokes for the Al Smith dinner . Fox says that’s fake news. The former president, whose roast of Kamala Harris and other Democrats at Thursday’s Al Smith dinner pulled no punches, said this morning on “Fox & Friends”: “A couple of people from Fox actually — I shouldn’t say that — but they wrote some jokes, and for the most part, I didn’t like any of them.” The network disputed that claim. In a statement, a Fox News spokesperson said: “Fox News confirmed that no employee or freelancers wrote the jokes.”

Nightly Road to 2024

HOLDING A GRUDGE — Donald Trump stressed that he “beat Nikki [Haley] badly” during the Republican presidential primaries during a “Fox & Friends” interview this morning, while also adding that his former rival is “helping” his presidential campaign.

“I’ll do what I have to do,” Trump said when asked if he would call on Haley to join the campaign trail, going on to emphasize, “Nikki Haley and I fought, and I beat her by 50, 60, 90 points. I beat her in her own state by numbers that nobody’s ever been beaten by. I beat Nikki badly.”

KEY DEMOGRAPHIC — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both sought support from Arab American voters today as they campaigned in Michigan, trying to lock down support in this key battleground state, reports The Associated Press.

Trump visited a new campaign office in Hamtramck, one of the nation’s only Muslim-majority cities, and he was joined there by Mayor Amer Ghalib, a Democrat who has endorsed him. Meanwhile, three city council members in the same town have endorsed Harris.

Harris, in comments Thursday following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the architects of the Oct. 7 attack, said his death provided an opportunity to end the war in Gaza. She began her day in Grand Rapids with a rally with other Democratic leaders, before going to Lansing.

TRUSTING NO ONE — Former President Donald Trump is weighing a go-it-alone approach to presidential transition planning, which could dramatically slow his takeover of the federal government if he wins in November.

The Trump transition team has yet to sign two agreements with the federal government to receive transition funding and planning assistance and to share information — a break with modern precedent. Instead, transition co-chairs Linda McMahon, who served as small business administrator in the Trump administration, and investor and GOP mega-donor Howard Lutnick are plowing ahead with their own processes for vetting potential political appointees and preparing policy plans.

The decision not to take federal assistance allows them to raise unlimited funds without disclosing their donors, while avoiding oversight from federal bureaucrats, whom Trump and his advisers deeply distrust. But if Trump wins the election and continues to drag his feet on signing the agreement with the White House, it will limit the information he and his team can access to understand current federal operations and challenges.

AROUND THE WORLD

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toast during a reception.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toast during a reception at the Mongnangwan Reception House in Pyongyang on June 19. | Pool photo by Vladimir Smirnov

HELP FROM ABROAD — South Korea’s spy agency said today that North Korea has dispatched troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. If confirmed, the move would bring a third country into the war and intensify a standoff between North Korea and the West, The Associated Press reports.

The South Korean announcement came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government has intelligence that 10,000 troops from North Korea are being prepared to join Russian forces fighting against his country.

The National Intelligence Service said in a statement that Russian navy ships transferred 1,500 North Korean special operation forces to the Russian port city of Vladivostok from Oct. 8 to Oct. 13. It said more North Korean troops are expected to be sent to Russia soon.

IMPEACHED — Kenya’s Senate voted to remove Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua from office in an impeachment trial on corruption and other allegations, hours after the deputy president was taken to the hospital with chest pains, reports The Associated Press.

Senators approved five of 11 grounds for impeachment against Gachagua, making him the first sitting deputy president to be removed from office in impeachment proceedings.

The vote on the first of the five counts was 54-13, well above the two-thirds majority required to convict and remove him from office. The lower house of Parliament, the National Assembly, voted 282-44 last week to impeach the deputy president.

Gachagua faced allegations that included corruption, inciting ethnic divisions and support for anti-government protests that saw demonstrators storm the Parliament.

Nightly Number

Between 10 percent and 17 percent

The percentage that the Egyptian government is raising fuel prices, a move that’s expected to impact the cost of both goods and services. Egyptians have been grappling with a soaring inflation as they navigate rising daily costs.

RADAR SWEEP

NO CARS GO — In the midst of the Japanese Alps, there’s a town called Kamikochi that is special for multiple reasons — there are no private homes, no year round residents or chain stores, and no cars . It has become a popular destination for people who travel the world in search of natural environs not yet spoiled by mass tourism. But as tourism has hit Japan in remarkable numbers over the last half decade, there are concerns that Kamikochi could lose some of its natural charm as well, raising larger questions about what the value of a “hidden gem” is and the nature of tourism itself. Dave Seminara reports on the ground from Kamikochi for the BBC.

Parting Image

On this date in 1940: Members of a squadron of the Royal Australian Air Force arrived at a port in the Middle East to prepare to depart for fighting in Northern Africa.

On this date in 1940: Members of a squadron of the Royal Australian Air Force arrived at a port in the Middle East to prepare to depart for fighting in Northern Africa. | AP

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