| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Joe Gould, Paul McLeary and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Increasingly common severe weather events are forcing more urgent conversations in the national security and defense establishment about how to mitigate and adapt to climate change. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Washington’s national security establishment has for years faced criticism that it only pays lip service to the threats of climate change in between its routine conversations on military threats, competition with China or Russian aggression. The latest spate of extreme hurricanes that have torn through the southeastern U.S. shows how untenable that is, a growing number of administration officials and national security analysts say. Climate change was already threatening U.S. military installations — the largest naval base in the world in Norfolk, Virginia endures regular flooding due to rising sea levels. But increasingly common severe weather events are forcing more urgent conversations in the national security and defense establishment about how to mitigate and adapt to climate change. “You still find people in the national security world and military who question why they should worry about climate change as a national security threat, they say ‘I understand what you’re saying but I’m not sure how it applies to me,’” said ALICE HILL, who worked on climate change policy on the National Security Council and Department of Homeland Security in the Obama administration. “Well, here we have it.” Hurricane Milton tore through Florida last night, forcing the evacuation of nonessential personnel from the base that serves as the headquarters of U.S. Central Command (the Pentagon says its operations in the Middle East have not been interrupted.) Florida is also home to U.S. Southern Command. And thousands of contractors that supply the U.S. defense industrial machine are based in parts of Florida directly in Milton’s path. Honeywell Aerospace has a facility in Clearwater. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems is based in St. Petersburg. And Raytheon Intelligence and Space makes defense electronics products at a facility in Largo. Meanwhile, nearly 10,000 U.S. service members are already deployed to deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene that caused devastation across western North Carolina and parts of Tennessee. This reinforces growing concerns that the responses to extreme weather events are straining U.S. military and National Guard resources. If major storms become the norm, there are larger questions about the vulnerability of defense industry supply chains and the defense budget impact of routine damage to military installations, said BYRON CALLAN, a defense industry analyst and managing director of Capital Alpha Partners. Callan noted that one of the world’s few sources of high-quality quartz for semiconductor crucibles is Asheville, North Carolina, which was wrecked two weeks ago by Hurricane Helene. “We’re already stressed with ramping up production rates. What happens if you take out a company that makes fuses or energetics because some place gets 15 inches of rain in a day?” Callan said. Last month, Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO, speaking at an event in Norfolk, said the Navy is “fighting a constant battle against rising sea levels” in the city. The Navy recently finished work on a sea wall to protect the Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, and has been running tabletop war games working out climate change scenarios over the past two years. Historically, however, Republicans have rejected broader Democratic efforts to include climate change provisions in defense spending bills. They’ve argued those actions would undermine force readiness and prevent the U.S. from being able to adroitly respond to threats. Hill, now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, hopes that Republican resistance will change as the effects of climate change become more apparent, obvious and destructive. “Unlike some of our other national security threats, it doesn’t require anyone to push a launch button, it doesn’t require anyone with malevolent intent to take action, it is just happening,” she told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: All-Domain Deterrence, Now and for the Future
Lockheed Martin is leveraging advanced commercial technologies, such as artificial intelligence, edge computing and 5G.MIL® connectivity to meet the evolving challenges of a more complex battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | ABOUT THOSE UKRAINE REPORTS: Ukraine is denying reports in Italian and German newspapers that it is prepared to cede territory along the current frontlines and accept a cease-fire with Russia to end Moscow’s two-year invasion. "This information from the media is not true. We have a Peace Formula that clearly outlines how Ukraine envisions a just peace, and negotiations with partners to strengthen Ukraine's position continue on that basis," presidential communication adviser DMYTRO LYTVYN said in a statement to reporters. The reports in BILD (which is owned by POLITICO’s parent company Axel Springer) and Italian paper Corriere della Sera, which coincide with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s trips to European capitals, come as Kyiv has sought to sell Western allies on its peace plan for ending the conflict. Allies were supposed to discuss the plan in more detail this weekend in Germany, during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, but the gathering was canceled after President JOE BIDEN was forced to stay in the United States to address Hurricane Milton. Read: Zelenskyy’s 5 asks on his Europe tour (and the odds he’ll get them) by our own JOSHUA POSANER, VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, JACOPO BARIGAZZI and ESTHER WEBBER GULF STATE PRESSURES: Gulf allies are pushing the U.S. to thwart threatened Israeli attacks on Iranian oil sites. As Reuters’ SAMIA NAKHOUL, PARISA HAFEZI and PESHA MAGID report, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are worried their facilities could end up in the crosshairs of escalating violence between Israel and Tehran and its proxies if Israel strikes Iranian oil facilities. Iran has warned the Arab countries that if they allow Israel to use their airspace to conduct such attacks, Tehran can’t guarantee that militant groups like Hezbollah or the Yemen-based Houthi rebels wouldn’t attack their oil sites. CO-PRODUCTION WITH TOKYO: Japan and the United States are exploring how they might co-produce air-to-air missiles critical for Ukraine’s efforts to repel ongoing Russian advances. As Nikkei’s KEN MORIYASU reports, the two countries agreed at a Monday meeting in Hawaii to accelerate a “feasibility study” on joint production of the American AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | RUTTE’S REASSURANCES: New NATO chief MARK RUTTE has a message for alliance members who are fretting about the prospect of a DONALD TRUMP presidency: Don’t worry, be happy. As Esther also reports, the Dutch politician-cum-NATO secretary general said on a visit to London that Trump “understands completely and agrees with me that this fight to Ukraine is not only about Ukraine, it's also about the safety and the future security of the United States.” Rutte added that he’s not personally worried about Trump’s potential impacts on transatlantic cooperation. Rutte is leaning into his purported role as a “Trump whisperer” at a time when NATO allies are skittish about the Republican nominee, who declined to say at a September presidential debate whether he wanted to see Ukraine defeat Russia. Some Trump allies have insisted that the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine under a Trump presidency.
| | | CHIPS CHALLENGES: Lawmakers are alleging that the Commerce Department is finalizing deals for domestic chip manufacturing without much transparency about the agreements’ terms and progress on the part of chipmakers. As our friends at Morning Tech scooped this morning (for Pros!), the co-chairs of the Congressional Labor Caucus plan to write a letter to Secretary GINA RAIMONDO protesting that they are unable to review or enforce labor promises made by companies as a condition of receiving CHIPS Act funds. They’re also “concerned and perplexed by the lack of commitments regarding public reporting on job quality and workforce metrics.” The transparency debate comes as environmental and labor groups have wanted more disclosures around major contracts, including a multi-million dollar agreement with Polar Manufacturing, as the government works to turbocharge the domestic chip industry and thwart China’s growth in the critical tech sector. U.S. officials have defended the lack of transparency as a necessary part of the business and contracting process. “The specific milestones that we agree to are business confidential information tied to things like specific technologies or construction schedules,” a senior administration official told Morning Tech in September. “And so, we will not be able to make everything public.” Read: The American who waged a tech war on China by Wired’s ISSIE LAPOWSKY
| | PENTAGON’S HURRICANE RESPONSE: U.S. military installations in Florida avoided a “worst-case” scenario after Hurricane Milton made landfall last night, but those facilities are staying evacuated until further notice. At a Pentagon press briefing today, Defense Department spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters that “U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Central Command remain evacuated from MacDill Air Force Base and will re-enter when safe.” The commands are operating out of “multiple locations,” Ryder explained, “ensuring no degradation to operations” as a result of the storm. Ryder also told reporters that the Pentagon is supporting the disaster response in Florida, as well as the response to Hurricane Helene in other states. Thousands of national guard members from multiple states have been mobilized to support missions, Ryder said, and U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Army North and other divisions of the military are supporting search and rescue efforts. Servicemembers in North Carolina, meanwhile, are helping clear debris and distributing disaster relief.
| | BEIJING’S DEFENSE SECTOR BRUISING: China sanctioned three U.S. defense manufacturers and 10 senior executives at major defense companies over arms sales to Taiwan. As Reuters’ JOE CASH reports, Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc and Skydio Inc will see their property in China frozen effective today. China also sanctioned senior executives at Lockheed Martin, Sierra Nevada and Northrop Grumman, among other firms, freezing any assets and property they may personally hold in China. The announcement, made via a statement only released in Mandarin, saw the Chinese Foreign ministry lash the U.S. firms for contributing to the weapons transfers, which they see as a violation of the one-China policy.
| | — Center for a New American Security Senior Fellow BECCA WASSER, who leads its Gaming Lab, is becoming a deputy director for its defense program. — CHAUNCEY McINTOSH, a Lockheed Martin vice president and its deputy on the F-35 program, will take over as the program’s general manager on Dec. 1. BRIDGET LAUDERDALE, who currently runs the program, will retire at the end of the year after 38 years with the company.
| | | |   | | | | | — DHRUVA JAISHANKAR, NDTV: What exactly would a Trump or a Harris mean for the world? — CHARLES EDEL and KATHRYN PAIK, Foreign Affairs: The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific — ALEX GALITSKY, The Hill: Letting Azerbaijan host the UN climate conference is a sick joke — DYLAN SPAULDING, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: The Energy Department just made one plutonium pit. Making more is uncertain
| | — United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: Launch of “USIP Peaceworks Report on Reconciliation” — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Why Taiwan matters to the U.S. and the world — Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: The international aid architecture: Addressing development challenges in fragile and conflict-affected areas — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Virtual book discussion on "Might of the Chain: Forging Leaders of Iron Integrity" — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Mexico: Survival of liberal democracy or creation of an authoritarian regime after the 2024 general elections? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: U.S.-India cooperation for minerals security Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is constantly disrupting our defense industrial base supply chain. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is aiding our fight against rising sea levels.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: 21st Century Security® – A New Standard of Connected Protection
We’re enhancing our platform-centric business with a network-centric model for cross-domain interconnectivity and interoperability. From space to cyberspace, air, sea and ground – Lockheed Martin is leading the mission-centric approach. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
