FIGHTING TO HANG ON IN THE LAST FRONTIER Mary Peltola stunned the political world in 2022, turning Alaska’s lone House seat blue. She now faces a fierce reelection battle for the most Republican-leaning territory currently held by a Democrat. Her opponent, businessman Nick Begich, hails from the state’s best-known Democratic family — his grandfather was former Rep. Nick Begich (D-Alaska) and his uncle is former Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska). But the Begich on the ballot in 2024 is a conservative Republican endorsed by former President Donald Trump. It’s not his first run for the House either: He finished third behind Peltola and former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) under Alaska’s unique top-four, ranked choice voting system during both the special and general 2022 contests held after the passing of longtime Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska). How it looks this time around: It’s a razor-thin race as the two parties battle for dozens of districts to control the House. A National Republican Congressional Committee poll from mid-September found Begich outpacing Peltola 44 to 40 percent, with another 10 percent undecided. Polling in the Last Frontier is notoriously difficult and sparse, though Republicans say they’re continuing to see movement in Begich’s direction in private polling. Three of the most respected election indicators — the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections — all rate the race a tossup. “This is going to be one of the tightest races in the country,” Matt Shuckerow, a veteran GOP operative in the state who is not involved in the congressional race, told us. “Mary Peltola will run ahead of Kamala Harris, there’s no question about it. The only question is how much.” Republicans expect Trump to romp again in Alaska at the presidential level and think the state’s fundamental red lean will help carry Begich into the halls of Congress. “The political environment nationally is positive. I think the environment in the state is positive,” Begich told us in an interview Thursday. “The biggest difference between 2022 and 2024 is that Mary Peltola has developed a record in Congress, and we are, on balance, a Republican state. … It's very difficult for someone who votes consistently with the Democrats to come back home and explain that voting record to Alaskans.” The dynamics of ranked-choice voting will look different this cycle. A second Republican, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, withdrew after finishing third in this year’s primary, meaning the third and fourth candidates will be little-known John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and Democrat Eric Hafner, a federal prisoner in New York convicted of threatening various governmental officials. She has sought to keep her distance from the national Democratic Party, repeatedly declining to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid. Alaska voted for Trump over President Joe Biden in 2020 by a 52.8 to 42.8 margin. “I don’t know why I would use up any of my gas on a race I don’t have any control over,” she said at a debate on Oct. 10, referring to the presidential contest. The incumbent touts she’ll “ work with anyone” to put “state over party” as part of her bipartisan pitch alongside her campaign slogan of “Fish, Family, Freedom.” She also notched a rare endorsement from the National Rifle Association earlier this summer. Her campaign points to her strong performance in the August primary — Peltola won nearly 51 percent of votes cast — as reason for optimism going into November. “Voters trust her record of putting Alaska before politics, which is why she won an outright majority in the nonpartisan primary,” campaign manager Elisa Rios told POLITICO. Another thing Peltola has going for her: campaign cash, which has swamped the sprawling but sparsely-populated state. The incumbent significantly outraised Begich during the third quarter, hauling in $3.1 million to his $789,300, according to reports filed with the FEC. Since Labor Day, Democrats have outspent Republicans on the race by millions, according to AdImpact. The race has largely centered on issues like the high cost of living in Alaska and federal spending. But like many Democrats, Peltola has also made reproductive rights access a focal part of her campaign, arguing abortion “should be safe, legal and rare” without interference from politicians. Begich said during a recent debate he would not support a national abortion ban — "I believe in local control, and this is something that we decide locally” — though he voiced support for a federal ban on abortion after about the 12th week of pregnancy in a prior candidate questionnaire by an anti-abortion group. “My opponent is trying to walk back his support for a national abortion ban because he knows that trampling on the state constitution to violate our privacy is deeply unpopular with Alaskans,” Peltola said in a statement to POLITICO. “I will always be open and honest about where I stand.” Energy is also a key issue in the contest. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a statement that Begich is dedicated to passing “as many pro-energy policies as possible in the first reconciliation bill of the new Congress,” while Begich said House Natural Resources Committee Chair Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) will campaign for him in Alaska on Oct. 24. Peltola has taken heat for her “present” vote on a bill she previously backed to revert to Trump-era drilling rights in the Arctic (she argued it would adversely impact area fisheries). — Anthony Adragna GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, October 18, where we’re all feeling like the new D.C. pandas after another week leading up to Election Day. MULLIN’S NATIVE AMERICAN VOTER PITCH Republicans are turning to Native American voters to try and bolster turnout this November. And Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a member of the Cherokee Nation, is leading the charge. Mullin has been on a series of campaign stops on behalf of former President Donald Trump in Arizona, Nevada and, later Friday, North Carolina, hosting multiple conversations with Native American voters, whose turnout took a drastic dip in 2022. The GOP is hoping that will change in their favor this year, and are highlighting issues like economic development and health care. In an interview with POLITICO, Mullin attributed last cycle’s dip in turnout to “an inherent mistrust with the government that's instilled throughout Indian Country” and “lip service that's always given to the tribes, but they're not ever listened to.” The senator stressed that although Native American populations only make up a small segment of voters in many of the states the GOP is eying, that could still make a difference. “Not that you got to win all of them,” Mullin said. “But if you can win the vote or increase your percentages from last time, that could be enough to put you over the top. And so I feel like in these battleground states, Native American voters can be the deciding factor.” Mullin also said he’s also focused on looping in any GOP Senate or House candidates that could benefit from increased Native American turnout. Tribal voters could have a significant impact on this year’s down-ballot contests, including in the critical Montana Senate race, as our colleague Natalie Fertig covered earlier this year. — Ursula Perano FRANKLY SPEAKING A reminder to Hill staffers in this pre-election season: Mind your bosses’ ad buys! Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) on Thursday stopped running a Facebook ad after Inside Congress asked about an apparent violation of House franking rules that prohibit paid House communications less than 60 days before the election. On Monday, Van Duyne started running a video on her official account promoting her role setting up an Aug. 8 constituent event: “Our 2024 North Texas Job Fair was our biggest one yet with over 500 businesses and more than 25,000 people in attendance! Thank you to all our community partners and elected officials who co-hosted this incredible event.” Facebook ad tracking shows that she spent between $100 to $199 on the promoted post, which received between 8,000 and 9,000 impressions. The House Administration Committee notes in its rules on the blackout period that any “paid video or audio communications distributed to more than 499 unsolicited recipients” are prohibited. The video also doesn’t appear in the House database of franking approvals, meaning it was likely not submitted for approval. Van Duyne spokesperson Nicolette Pianelli said in a statement that the ad “was mistakenly run as a continuation buy from earlier in the year” and that the “cost of $154.57 will not be reimbursed by the official account.” — Daniel Lippman
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