AD DELUGE — In the 2024 presidential race, there are swing states and then there is Pennsylvania. This year it looms as the essential battleground — it’s the single biggest trove of electoral votes (19) that is in play — and the state stands to blow up the electoral strategy of the campaign that loses it in November. It’s why the Trump and Harris campaigns have carpet-bombed Pennsylvania with ads, why the candidates have spent so much time stumping there — and why Donald Trump had rallies scheduled in Scranton and Reading today, his second visit to the state in five days. Political strategist James Carville once famously described Pennsylvania as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between, but that’s a bad mischaracterization. While it nods to some of the state’s rural and small-town character outside its two most populous cities, the description fails to account for the state’s diversity or its political complexity. At the moment, the race for Pennsylvania is exceptionally tight. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a single percentage point, according to polling averages. To provide better insight into the seven battleground states, over the campaign’s final 26 days Nightly will run a series of interviews with POLITICO reporters who have recently been on the ground reporting in those states. Tonight, we’ll hear from Holly Otterbein, a national political reporter for POLITICO with impeccable Pennsylvania credentials. She grew up in York County, went to college in Philadelphia, covered politics at the Philadelphia Inquirer and currently lives in Philadelphia. Pennsylvania seems to be the center of the political universe this year. What makes it so important? It’s math, pure and simple. There are seven battleground states in the presidential race, and Pennsylvania has more electoral votes than any of them — 19 sweet, sweet electoral votes, to be exact. Which is why, between now and Election Day, your readers will be forced to hear more about my beloved commonwealth and its inscrutable voters than they could possibly ever want. We know Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, along with their allies, see Pennsylvania as the linchpin because they’re spending more on advertising here than any other swing state. As a Philadelphian who watches Jeopardy, the deluge of ads is like nothing I’ver seen. Is this how Iowa feels during the primary season? What issues are dominating the political debate in Pennsylvania this year? Are they different from in any of the other battleground states? The economy is always the biggest issue for voters here and everywhere. High prices have hit people in Pennsylvania hard. On top of that, one unique issue for us is always fracking because of the state’s natural gas industry. So it’s no surprise Trump’s campaign has tried to point to Harris’ 2019 proposal to ban fracking, and it’s no surprise that Harris long ago reversed herself on that position. Philadelphia and its suburbs delivered big margins for Joe Biden in 2020, enough to overcome Trump’s advantage in the rest of the state. Is that the Harris recipe also? Absolutely. That’s been the recipe for every winning Democrat in Pennsylvania recently — with one extra ingredient added in. Harris needs to drive up turnout in Philadelphia, decisively carry the surrounding suburbs, do well in the swing counties like Erie — and cut Trump’s margins in MAGA country. What does Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania look like? Run up the score in MAGA country. Don’t get killed in the Philly suburbs. Do a little better with Black and Latino men in the city of Philadelphia. Democratic presidential vote margins in Philadelphia, the state’s most populous city, have been in decline since 2012. Are Democrats worried about this? Democrats never stop worrying about this. There’s hope among some in the party that Harris will do better than Biden did in the city, in part because she would make history as the first Black and Asian American woman president. But at the same time, there’s a lot of anxiety that Trump could overperform among Black and Latino men in Philly. Will we know who won Pennsylvania on Election Night? If not, how soon do you expect we might get a call? Americans may remember — even have PTSD from — Pennsylvania taking a few days to count its ballots in 2020. That’s because of a state law that doesn’t let election administrators process mail ballots until Election Day. That law is still on the books. The good thing, though, is that election officials say their equipment and procedures for counting ballots are better now — and there will be less mail voting this presidential race than in 2020, when there was a pandemic and many people didn’t want to leave their homes. So things should move faster. But when we know the winner will also depend on how close the race is and pending litigation that could affect whether certain ballots are counted. Lightning round question: Name one place, issue or thing we should be watching in Pennsylvania in the campaign homestretch. Your readers should be watching (and rooting for) the Phils! In all seriousness, it sounds crazy, but some Democrats have argued to me that the Phillies doing well makes voters feel better about the city — and that’s good for them. Hey, I’ve heard stranger election theories. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.
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