| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |  Commuters drive past a billboard bearing pictures of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri, U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tehran on Oct. 27, 2024. Iran had been more muted than expected following the Oct. 25 attack on its military facilities and some of its oil refineries. | Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric As Iran reportedly plans a “definitive and painful” response to Israel’s attack, Washington is trying to figure out how much firepower Iran has left to launch a devastating strike. Iran had been more muted than expected following the Oct. 25 attack on its military facilities and some of its oil refineries. Earlier this week, Iranian state media quoted Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI as having said that “the evil committed by the Zionist regime two nights ago should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” And Iranian officials had claimed the attack did not do very much damage to the country’s military infrastructure. But satellite imagery shows that Israel’s early morning attack seriously damaged at least four critical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities. BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU , a senior fellow at the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, argues that the strike was “a defanging or a handicapping type of operation” and is likely set back Iran’s immediate and longer-term defense and offensive capabilities. Israel’s strike was “akin to firing a shot, probably not destroying but damaging, firing a shot at the beating heart of the largest ballistic missile program in the Middle East,” Ben Taleblu said. He added that Israel appeared to have targeted “key bottlenecks.” It may have done enough damage to delay any imminent response from Iran, per ALI VAEZ, who leads Iran work at the International Crisis Group think tank. “They need time to repair and replace some of those capabilities before they're ready to engage in the next round of escalation with Israel,” Vaez said. The Biden administration appears satisfied with the way Israel carried out the strike against Iran and feels like Israel dealt Iran a clear blow. In the weeks ahead of the strike, Israeli and U.S. officials were in constant communication, as President JOE BIDEN and White House officials sought to ensure Israel’s response would be measured. And the administration is sternly warning Iran against taking further action in furtherance of that goal. State Department spokesperson MATT MILLER told reporters Wednesday that Iran “should not in any way continue to escalate this conflict. This should be the end of it.” White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE reiterated on Wednesday that the U.S. would help defend Israel if Iran conducts yet another attack. Vaez argues that Iran doesn’t see more direct conflict with Israel as consistent with its strategic interests, but he argued that the U.S. and Israel still need to do more to convince Iran to hold back from a strong response. Vaez said that Israel should back off from further covert operations against Iran and the U.S. should put economic incentives back on the table as part of talks. “There are ways that I think would put both sides in a better situation, but it requires diplomatic engagements that the Biden administration so far has been reluctant to do because it has been afraid of the political backlash that that could produce in the run up to the elections,” Vaez said.
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Lockheed Martin is leveraging advanced commercial technologies, such as artificial intelligence, edge computing and 5G.MIL® connectivity to meet the evolving challenges of a more complex battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | THE PRICE OF FREEDOM: U.S. officials were cagey when they announced the Sept. 15 release of DAVID LIN, a U.S. citizen jailed in China for 16 years, in a surprise deal. Now we know why, thanks to a report Wednesday night by our own PHELIM KINE and Robbie. As Phelim and Robbie scooped, the U.S. secretly traded Lin for an unidentified Chinese citizen in U.S. custody, according to three people familiar with the deal. It’s unclear why the trade with the Chinese national — who the three people declined to identify — was kept quiet. But it would fall in line with Beijing’s reflexive secrecy on diplomatic issues and its efforts to tightly control information. KIM’S SABER-RATTLING: Pyongyang is defending its intercontinental ballistic missile test Wednesday night, per Reuters’ JACK KIM and KAORI KANEKO. State media quoted North Korean leader KIM JONG UN as praising its missile test, its longest to date, as “appropriate.” The test, Kim continued, “fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals, who have intentionally escalated the regional situation and posed a threat to the security of our Republic recently, of” their desire to respond. The test has unsurprisingly provoked sharp outrage from Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S., South Korean and Japanese governments put out a statement today to “strongly condemn” the launch. And Wednesday night, National Security Council spokesperson SEAN SAVETT decried the test, saying it “needlessly raises tensions” and “only demonstrates that the DPRK continues to prioritize its unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs over the well-being of its people.” ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST DEALS: U.S. officials are pushing on all fronts to secure multiple deals involving Israel, and inverting the previously stated formula they set out for ending Israel’s military entanglements with its neighbors. Biden administration officials are now publicly arguing that securing a cease-fire in Lebanon first will speed up the process for securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, in an inversion of the plans they had previously set forth publicly (in private, our own ERIN BANCO and NAHAL TOOSI reported earlier this month, this was the operating assumption within the administration). And as The Times of Israel’s JACOB MAGID reports , the U.S. is now completely delinking the two cease-fire plans in public comments in the hopes that they can take advantage of winding down fighting against Hezbollah, secure a deal and increase Hamas’ willingness to reach a deal. Meanwhile, there are still big snags that need to be ironed out before normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel progress, according to Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister. As Reuters’ PESHA MAGID reports , Saudi Foreign Minister Prince FAISAL BIN FARHAN AL SAUD told investors at a conference in Riyadh today that some of the bilateral agreements it has been negotiating with Washington are "not that tied" to longer-term relations with Israel and that Israel still need to make progress on a Palestinian state. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — U.S. AFRICA ENVOY DEPARTING POST: The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa region, MIKE HAMMER, is departing his post to become the next top U.S. diplomat in Cuba, three U.S. officials told NatSec Daily. The officials were granted anonymity to discuss internal administration issues. Hammer has been in the job since 2022, tasked with the U.S. response to widening but often-overlooked crises across the region flowing from the aftershocks of Ethiopia’s devastating Tigray war, Sudan’s ongoing civil war and other regional tensions. His departure comes as a new war looms in Ethiopia’s Amhara region — something U.S. officials and regional analysts have characterized as a potential geopolitical powderkeg and humanitarian catastrophe in waiting. The Biden administration has yet to announce whether Hammer would be replaced. Hammer, as the next U.S. chief of mission in Havana, would arrive in Havana as the island grapples with a worsening economic and infrastructure crisis, as exemplified by recent blackouts and a wave of outbound migration to the United States. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ErinBanco, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | RUDD READS THE XI LEAVES: Australian Ambassador to the United States (and former Prime Minister) KEVIN RUDD has some “informed hunches” about how Chinese leader XI JINPING is analyzing the U.S. election, per our friends at China Watcher. In an interview with Phelim, Rudd, who recently wrote a book about China, argues that Xi views polarization in the United States and the U.S.’s present political chaos as just further evidence that the West is in decline and that the East is on the rise. And Xi “sees the forces of history moving decisively in China’s direction.” The direction that China desires, Rudd continued, is a world where “China, rather than the United States, will lie very much at the center of the international rules-based system of the future.” Rudd, however, demurred when asked if he knew who Xi was rooting for between Trump and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS. Read: NICHOLAS VINOCUR, POLITICO: It doesn't matter if Trump or Harris win. Europe has already lost.
| | DHS ON ICE: Concerns around a potential contract for the Department of Homeland Security’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement to do business with Israeli spyware vendor Paragon is beginning to infiltrate the conversation in Washington, and putting the White House in a bind, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The concerns were outlined in a letter sent to DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS today by a group of more than 30 digital and civil rights groups asking questions around the nature of a $2 million contract between ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations office and Paragon, which markets the Graphite spyware. The contract was disclosed publicly, but the exact business the agency is doing with Paragon is not clear. The contract is now under White House review to see if it’s in compliance with Biden's 2023 executive order meant to crack down on the use of spyware technologies by the U.S. government. It’s an issue that has mostly flown under the radar in the nation’s capital over the last month, but which the coalition of groups are hoping to put a spotlight on. “Such technology is often designed to operate without leaving traces, complicating notice, accountability, and remedy for victims of abuse,” the groups wrote, which include New America, Access Now, the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Amnesty International and Freedom House. DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the letter. Graphite has reportedly already been used by the federal government, specifically by the Drug Enforcement Agency.
| | CHINA’S INTERGALACTIC PROGRESS: China’s steady progress in the realm of space exploration is worrying U.S. policymakers. In an interview with our own JOSHUA POSANER, U.S. Space Force chief Gen. B. CHANCE SALTZMAN argued that not enough focus has been put on China, despite Beijing’s growth as a space power, because a lot of focus has been put on Russia’s space weapons push. Russia, he notes, is a serious player in space, but “the volume of threats, the diversity of threats that [China] is presenting is a particular challenge." "The pace with which they put counter-space capabilities into play is mind-boggling," Saltzman said, referring to anti-satellite and anti-spacecraft systems. He added it is "concerning" that Beijing is launching "hundreds of satellites" as part of a targeting system that can be used to aid missions on Earth. Saltzman’s comments come as the U.S. seeks to continue beefing up the Space Force and improving its defensive and offensive capabilities in space, so it doesn’t find itself outflanked by Russia and China in the emerging theater. Read: How NATO wants to shape the future of war, by our own DANIELLA CHESLOW
| | | LEBANON WARNING: Three Democratic senators sent a letter today to Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN pushing for answers from the administration on Israeli strikes that killed members of the Lebanese armed forces, or LAF, and how those strikes could escalate the ongoing conflict. It’s the latest example of how Democrats are pushing the Biden administration to lean on Israel to defuse the crisis and ongoing conflict in Lebanon, and comes as top Biden administration aides travel to Lebanon to discuss proposals to end the ongoing war. “Reports that Israel is harming LAF forces in its war against Hezbollah run contrary to the U.S. interest in de-escalating violence in the region,” wrote Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) in the letter. Among the questions they want answers to: “What communication has the U.S. had with Israeli officials to strongly protest against actions leading to LAF casualties?” One other thing to note here for NatSec Daily readers: Shaheen is slated to become the next top Democrat on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the next Congress.
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We’re enhancing our platform-centric business with a network-centric model for cross-domain interconnectivity and interoperability. From space to cyberspace, air, sea and ground – Lockheed Martin is leading the mission-centric approach. Learn more. | | | | | UKRAINE CRIES FOUL ON DPRK: It’s a day that ends in “y,” so Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is voicing his disappointment in Western allies yet again. This time it’s about the response to North Korean troops deployed in Ukraine. Ukrainian Pravda’s ULYANA KRYCHKOVSKA and IVAN DIAKONOV report that in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS, Zelenskyy decried the meager allied response to reports that North Korean troops are deployed in Ukraine alongside Russian troops and will begin fighting alongside the Russians soon. The West, he argues, has done little, even though Putin is testing them with this latest escalation. “With the North Korean contingent, Putin is testing the reaction of the West, NATO countries and South Korea. And I believe that after all these reactions, Putin will increase the contingent," he argued. When asked about the allied response, Zelenskyy said: “It's nothing, it's zero.” To be fair, allies have been doing something. Our friends at China Watcher noted this morning that U.S. officials are capitalizing China’s growing unease about the deepening Moscow-Pyongyang friendship and raising the issue of the North Korean troops with their Chinese counterparts, in the hope that Beijing will intervene to Kyiv and Washington’s advantage.
| | — SUZANNE NOSSEL will be president and CEO of Freedom House. She most recently has been the longtime CEO of PEN America. — JOHN KOLASHESKI, HALIMAH NAJIEB-LOCKE and CK CHERUVETTOLIL joined DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group as senior advisers. — SUSIE PARK HODGE has been promoted to be associate general counsel for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. — CATHERINE WHITE has been promoted to spokesperson and strategic policy adviser at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She previously was deputy press secretary. — LILA JAAFAR is now deputy assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. She most recently was director of strategic partnerships and intergovernmental affairs at the Peace Corps. — DANA FAGER is now director for Europe and the Middle East in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She most recently was an international trade specialist at the Department of Commerce.
| | — MICHAEL HIKARI CECIRE, POLITICO: An elegy for Georgia’s democracy — HEATHER LONG, The Washington Post: This might be the strangest idea in the 2024 election (hint: it’s about proposals for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund) — PAUL CORMARIE, War on the Rocks: Can the United Kingdom and France team up in the third nuclear age?
| | — Georgetown University's Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues, 9 a.m.: The Impact of China's Security Sector Assistance on State Fragility: The Case of Mali — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Countering authoritarian regimes' new tactics in Latin America — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.: A virtual discussion with former Israeli Prime Minister EHUD BARAK on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is amassing offensive capabilities against us. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who has managed to degrade Heidi’s capabilities successfully. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
