Meanwhile, in another move to capture the vote of young men, Trump made a three hour long appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. He also hit the trail in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and capped off his weekend with a rally in New York City (a place that, like Harris in Texas, he’s not likely to win). The event, held at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, “was intended to serve as a platform for Trump to make his closing argument but sparked backlash for racial slurs and vulgarity,” POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw writes. The sprint to the finish line will only get busier over the next couple of days. Here’s what to keep an eye on in the final stretch of the campaign, from some of our most tuned-in campaign reporters. We’re just over a week out from the election. Can anything the candidates do really make a difference at this point? The vast majority of voters have made up their minds and the campaigns are largely shifting into get-out-the-vote mode. It’s why you saw Harris in the deep-blue city of Philadelphia Sunday. But Harris is such a new candidate that there is probably a teeny bit more persuasion that she and Trump can do even now. She’ll be attempting that in her speech at the Ellipse this week, which is designed to remind voters of the Jan. 6 riot at the capitol. And there’s still time for an October surprise. Just ask Hillary Clinton. — Holly Otterbein Of course there are things that could still move the tiny sliver of voters who are still unsure how to vote, or perhaps as likely, unsure whether they actually will vote. Harris’ closing arguments about Trump’s role in the Capitol attack could potentially move some disaffected Republican voters who don’t really like her, but can still be convinced to take a stand against Trump. And Trump’s efforts to appeal to low propensity voters (he could stop into a Taco Bell this week!) may still endear some young people who otherwise weren’t interested. — Natalie Allison What do you think the campaign is doing a good job with at this point? To win Pennsylvania — the nation’s biggest swing state — Harris has to follow President Joe Biden’s strategy of losing by less in MAGA country. And, unlike Biden, she doesn’t have the benefit of being a native of Scranton. So it’s smart that she’s following the playbook used by Biden, as well as Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman, and campaigning in forgotten places throughout the state. — Holly Trump is doing a good job, as he has for his almost decade of running for president, at captivating people not ordinarily interested in politics. Much ink has been spilled about the McDonald’s stop, the podcasts, the ways he has seemed to capture young men this election. We’ll see when the votes are tallied, though, if those guys actually showed up. — Natalie Where are they struggling? High prices are still dragging her down. If Trump wins, it will be partly because voters were so frustrated with inflation that they were willing to overlook their concerns about the former president in order to give him the keys to the economy. — Holly While Harris’ team makes an explicit play for the moderate, Trump-skeptical, Nikki Haley Republicans, Trump hasn’t been doing or saying a whole lot to assure those people. That’s a continued vulnerability for him. — Natalie What’s one down-ballot race you think isn’t getting enough attention right now? The race for California's 45th District between Rep. Michelle Steel and Democrat Derek Tran. Steel started off the cycle relatively safe, an impressive candidate with a compelling biography and a large war chest. But this contest has grown increasingly competitive thanks to Tran's fundraising and Biden's exit from the ticket. Republicans have now poured a collective $17.4 million into the race to Democrats' $13.7 million. In a poll released by Tran's own campaign in June 2024, Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in this district despite winning it by 6 points in 2020. Now polling clearly shows Harris prevailing and Steel in trouble. — Ally Mutnick The race in Iowa's 1st District. It's not so much that GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks or Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan are super-compelling political figures (though some of us remember Miller-Meeks as one of the foremost perennial candidates until she finally broke through and won in 2020). But it's what the emergence of the race on the battlefield represents: either a greater degree of Democratic strength across the largely white northern tier of the country, or the illusion of that strength as an artifact of polling that is struggling to measure Trump's support, especially among white voters. It's not hard to see how the outcome here could inform other races: Harris has been surprisingly durable in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as Biden was before her. Can Sherrod Brown hold on in Ohio? Both parties' full engagement in IA-01 (and also IA-03) suggest they're seeing the same numbers. But those are also the places where the polling has underestimated Trump the most. — Steve Shepard What’s one campaign move that has surprised you in recent days? I'm going to stick with the same district I highlighted above. A fundraising text from Steel's campaign tries to create distance between Tran and Vice President Harris to help the incumbent in her blue-leaning Orange County district. The text notes that as California's attorney general, Harris "fined Big Pharma for ripping off consumers" and notes that Tran sides with drug companies while "Democrats in Congress work to lower drug prices." Pretty strange text to see from a GOP incumbent! — Ally I'll hedge my bets and say the most surprising move is either the top Senate GOP super PAC diving into Nevada — or House Democrats canceling their spending in Las Vegas out of confidence. It doesn't add up: If Trump is really so ascendant and the early voting numbers are so good for Republicans that they feel Sam Brown can beat Jacky Rosen, then Democrats should probably be protecting Rep. Susie Lee's seat from getting caught up in the coattails. Who's right? I don't know, but I'm guessing I won't be the only one surprised in the next week or two. — Steve Happy Monday. Thanks to Holly, Natalie Ally and Steve for the assist with today's top. What are you watching? Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the 2024 election: 8 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
| 
