Electric election eve

Nov 04, 2024

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In today's edition:

→ On election night eve, Playbook brings you the stakes for Canada.

→ Three things we’re watching this week.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Kamala Harris walks on stage for a campaign rally

Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at Michigan State University on Sunday. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

OVERTURE, CURTAIN, LIGHTS — Just one day left before U.S. election night, when either KAMALA HARRIS or DONALD TRUMP will emerge victorious and ready to form the next U.S. administration. If we’re lucky (remember 2000?).

The polling puts it as a toss-up. Battlegrounds are deadlocked. And 538 has Harris up by about 1 point.

With either candidate, Canada faces huge stakes. But with one in particular, they’re big-league, you might say. Or bigly. (Did we ever sort that one out…?)

— Trade front and center: “The level of apprehension and concern among Canadians has never been higher in terms of a U.S. federal election,” said FEN HAMPSON, an international affairs professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.

“And a real concern that an administration led by Donald Trump, reinforced by a Republican Congress, is going to turn inwards, and that includes inwards from Canada.”

The biggest policy that’s gripped attention in Ottawa is that Trump has said he would levy 10 percent across-the-board tariffs on imports.

Hampson said if implemented, that “would be a real gut punch to the Canadian economy and “very likely drive us into a recession.”

Former JUSTIN TRUDEAU principal secretary GERRY BUTTS on CBC’s “The House” this weekend, who lived through Canada dealing with Trump I, said the results could bring “the most profound consequences of any American election of our lifetime” — the economic fallout would hit Canada “faster and harder than just about anyone else.”

— In case you weren’t worried: Even Canada’s former top trade negotiator STEVE VERHEUL, a measured voice now a consultant at GT and Company and a Public Policy Forum fellow, said of the election on the forum’s “Wonk” podcast that Canadians “should be quite anxious.”

— Names to watch: ROBERT LIGHTHIZER , a lead contender for any of Trump’s top economic policy positions.

Trump’s former USTR is working behind the scenes crafting economic policy for the Treasury Department, the National Economic Council, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, as is former Trump speechwriter VINCE HALEY, as POLITICO’s GAVIN BADE, HAILEY FUCHS, MERIDITH MCGRAW, BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and ROBIN BRAVENDER reported over the weekend.

The policy transition team is prepping an “aggressive trade agenda for the first 100 days, which will likely include some executive action on tariffs, though the details are still being debated.”

Former President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally.

Former President Donald Trump in North Carolina on Sunday. | Evan Vucci/AP

— Shock-and-awe policy: “The chilling effect on investment is going to be significant if there's a Trump presidency,” said LAURA DAWSON, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.

Even if that universal tariff isn’t sustained by Congress and proves mostly bluster, it would still be significant enough to scare away investments.

“The great irony is that the instability, which would be in many ways triggered by the U.S., would actually be a benefit in the short term for U.S. investment,” she said. Canada would have to kick off an “incredible” amount of cross-border advocacy.

— Protectionism reigns: “If Harris wins, it will be plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose,” Hampson said, as the JOE BIDEN-era policies would continue with largely subsidies over tariffs.

“With Kamala Harris, it's kind of the same package wrapped in different paper,” Dawson said. “Whether it's framed as bringing jobs back to Main Street America, or taking aim at unfair global traders, it still ends up being policies that are more protectionist, less oriented to trade.”

— Then there’s all that other stuff: Trump’s isolationist foreign policy and his stance on Russia-Ukraine. How Trump’s threats of mass deportations would affect Canada.

Plus Canada’s inability to pony up on its NATO commitment. Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada KELLY CRAFT was on CTV’s "Question Period" this weekend, making clear Canada’s 2032 pledge to meet the 2 percent target isn’t good enough.

— The other Big Thing to brace for: A disputed election (again), which may end up being about Pennsylvania this time. Trump said Sunday he “shouldn’t have left” the White House last time.

Former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. DAVID MACNAUGHTON warned on Global’s "The West Block" that the chances of violence after the election, especially with a contested result, are “fairly high.”

Current U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN said democracy is “easily going to survive the outcome of this election” on CBC’s “ROSEMARY BARTON Live.”

A message from Google Canada:

At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit: g.co/families.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

STRIKE CITY — Canadian ports are poised to freeze up with a lockout expected to take effect this morning on the West Coast.

The B.C. Maritime Employers Association made public its final offer to the union representing hundreds of port workers over the weekend in a bitter contract dispute.

This latest potential trade disruption follows stop-and-go supply chain disruptions from labor unrest, including one involving Canada’s two major railways just this past August and a nearly two-week long port strike last year that locked up billions in trade.

— That other looming strike: Canada Post workers are continuing to talk with their employer and neither side is showing they’re preparing to stop work. The NDP, of course, made clear it does not support back-to-work legislation.

Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON spent his weekend speaking with both sides in the conflicts and posting the government’s generic line on social media about how the best deals are reached at the bargaining table.

MUSICAL CHAIRS — When, exactly, is that anticipated Cabinet shuffle going to happen?

In hallway chatter in Ottawa for months, the question keeps coming back to whether the best bet for the next shuffle date is shortly after the next president is chosen. Is it going to be a wartime effort on the trade file or continuing with business as usual?

— Spots to fill: There are also some obvious changes that have to happen. Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE will go on parental leave later this month.

Then there are those four Cabinet ministers not running again (DAN VANDAL, MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, CARLA QUALTROUGH and FILOMENA TASSI), a big story that quickly went quiet.

— NB: Next week is a break week for the House.

INDIA DIASPORA TENSIONS FLARE — Canada’s three main political leaders took to social media Sunday night to condemn violence outside the Hindu Sabha Mandir temple in Brampton.

Video circulating on social media showed people carrying large yellow Khalistan flags clashing with others, landing blows near the parking lot.

— Background: “The group Sikhs for Justice says that Khalistan supporters had been protesting Indian consulate officials undertaking an announced visit to provide administrative services such as helping seniors access pensions,”writes CP’s DYLAN ROBERTSON . “The organization alleges Indian officials use these events to find informants to target Sikh separatists.”

Global News’ GABBY RODRIGUES and ANDREW BENSON round up what the politicians are saying.

— Noteworthy: Liberal MP CHANDRA ARYA posted a video of the incident on X saying “Canadian Khalistani extremists” in Canada have crossed a “red line.” Arya, whose comments were picked up by Indian media , posted it made him “feel that there is a small grain of truth” to claims that Khalistan supporters have “infiltrated into our law enforcement agencies,” giving the political movement a “free pass.”

— Comes on the heels: The event comes with Canada-India relations at a low, following high-profile expulsions of diplomats last month over allegations they were linked to a campaign against Sikhs on Canadian soil.

A message from Google Canada:

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa to get his flu shot and later meet with the UNHCR Commissioner FILIPPO GRANDI. Later on, Trudeau will speak at a Diwali event.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is set to appear at the House of Commons Natural Resources committee with Natural Resources Minider JONATHAN WILKINSON.

— Playbook has not seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE or Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH plans to speak with media ahead of participating in question period.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY attends Parliament in person.

DULY NOTED

1 p.m. — Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will unveil details behind its emissions cap on oil and gas . A technical briefing for the media is scheduled for 11:15 a.m.

COUNTDOWNS

Every Monday, we'll remind you of some key events edging ever closer.

Sitting days, including today, until Christmas break: 27, at the absolute most … Summer: 96, at the absolute most.

Calendar days until APEC Economic Leaders’ Dialogue: 11 … G20 summit: 14 … Statistics Canada’s next inflation data: 15 … Nova Scotia's election: 22 … The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 37 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C.: 26.

Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us!

MEDIA ROOM

— As TONDA MACCHARLES reports in the Star, the duct tape is on government MPs’ mouths until the U.S. election results are known.

— KADY O’MALLEY’s most recent forecast for the ongoing House gridlock: “The standoff will keep pre-empting most other parliamentary business for the foreseeable future.”

— CBC’s DAVID THURTON writes that Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has a message: if the Bloc or NDP vote down the government early, it's bye-bye emissions cap.

— In Policy Magazine, JOHN DELACOURT and WILL SHELLING talk early voting and battleground states in the U.S. presidential race.

— PETER TERTZAKIAN argues on The Hub that Canada’s energy industry needs a carbon policy “time-out.”

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and KYLE DUGGAN: Table stakes in the Canada-U.S. relationship

From a team at Pro: Meet the Trump loyalists prepping for aggressive policy action.

In other news for Pro readers:

— What Elon Musk wants from Washington.

— The border crisis Trump doesn’t talk about.

— WTO chief braces for a fresh fight with Trump.

— Lawmakers push for more details on Chinese telecom hacks.

— Trump 2.0 would bring whiplash to Interior Department.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Sen. RODGER CUZNER.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: MPs ZIAD ABOULTAIF, MARILYN GLADU, TERRY BEECH and MEL ARNOLD, in the Maple Leaf Lounge at Ottawa airport. … JAGMEET SINGH, late for a flight to Halifax.

DOMINIC LEBLANC, running into his old pal BERNARD LORD at the provincial legislature.

Noted: Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH handily won her weekend UCP leadership review with 91.5 percent approval.

Movers and shakers: KELLY BENNETT joins Abacus Data as the firm’s Atlantic lead, based out of Halifax.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

11 a.m. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON appear at the Commons natural resources committee to talk about the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion.

11 a.m. The House fisheries committee hears from witnesses on reopening the cod fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec.

11 a.m. On the House trade committee agenda: “Recent developments concerning the Canada–United States softwood lumber trade dispute.”

11 a.m. The House status of women committee studies gender-based violence.

11 a.m. The House environment committee hears from experts on how climate change will affect Canada's financial system.

11 a.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN is at the House public accounts committee to discuss Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

3:30 p.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee has set aside four hours for clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-61.

3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee starts in camera to mull its report on recognizing Persian Gulf veterans, then goes public at 4:30 p.m. to discuss the experiences of Indigenous and Black veterans.

4 p.m. Citizen Lab, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Cyber Threat Exchange are at the Senate veteran affairs committee as it studies Bill C-26.

5 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER is at the Senate official languages committee to discuss the impact of the study permit cap on French-language post-secondary institutions outside Quebec. Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT is also there to discuss minority-language health services.

5 p.m. The Senate human rights committee hears from groups about aging out of foster care.

Behind closed doors: The House justice committee works on its antisemitism study. And the House Canada-China committee works on a study.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: When former PM STEPHEN HARPER told then-President BARACK OBAMA in 2009, “Barack, I’m sending … probably the most capable guy that I’ve got” to talk climate change, he was referring to JIM PRENTICE.

Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, NATALIE MCGEE, JOHN ECKER, JOHN MERRIMAN, MARK AGNEW, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, TREVOR RODIE, JOHN DILLON, MATTHEW CONWAY, NATI PRESSMAN, NICK CHAN, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, RAY DEL BIANCO, MARC LEBLANC.

Today’s question: According to EDDIE GOLDENBERG’s book “The Way It Works,” which Canadian politician was GEORGE W. BUSH referring to when he asked JEAN CHRÉTIEN, “Who is that religious guy I met in Quebec City?”

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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