| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Iranian officials are already offering up some apparent olive branches and backchannels to the Trump transition team. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine and Jack Detsch Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Is Iran so scared of DONALD TRUMP that it’s starting (or pretending) to play nice? That’s the question on the minds of U.S. national security officials and analysts as Tehran braces for another four years of Trump. Iranian officials are already offering up some apparent olive branches and backchannels to the Trump transition team. For starters, billionaire Trump ally ELON MUSK reportedly met with Iran’s U.N. ambassador on Monday. (Neither the Trump campaign nor representatives for Musk immediately responded to a request for comment.) And cease-fire talks between Israel and Iran’s top proxy group in Lebanon — Hezbollah — are ramping up following months of fighting. Then there’s the fact that Iran invited the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog to visit for the first time since May. International Atomic Energy Agency chief RAFAEL GROSSI traveled to Iran this week after fighting for months to get Tehran to lift its de facto ban on IAEA inspectors visiting the country’s nuclear sites. “It’s clear they’re scared,” said one former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East issues. NatSec Daily granted the individual anonymity to discuss the incoming administration’s thinking candidly. So will Iran’s efforts work? On the one hand, most former Trump officials and Middle East analysts expect Trump to revive his first term policies of unbridled support for Israel and a “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran to cripple its economy and isolate it diplomatically as it pursues its nuclear program. On the other hand, Trump is (in)famously transactional, and while he has picked Iran hawks for some top administration posts, he’s also tapped others who argue for restraint. That could give Iran a bit of room to lobby for the U.S. at least easing diplomatic pressure. “It’s likely that anything Tehran could use to dampen or slow maximum pressure can and will be used, from diplomacy to denial and deception,” said BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, an analyst at the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. The Iranian mission at the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. TRITA PARSI, co-founder of the noninterventionist Quincy Institute think tank in Washington, told NatSec Daily that Iran may see this moment as an opportunity to reset its relationship with Trump for future negotiations. “The Iranians have concluded, perhaps not openly, that they made a mistake during the Trump years,” Parsi said. “They rejected him for a variety of reasons. They didn't know how to handle it, but it left Trump in a situation in which it became much easier for the Israelis, for the neocons, for the hawks, to convince Trump the only way to get a deal with the Iranians is that you have to sanction them to death.” Unlike the first Trump term, however, there’s a war waging in the Middle East between Israel and Iran’s top proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel’s offensives against both militant groups have devastated their military ranks, weakening Iran’s hand in the region. It’s unclear whether this would push Iran to bow more to U.S. pressure in the Trump era, or lash out even further. Additionally, Trump has signaled he wouldn’t try to rein in Israel on its tit-for-tat retaliatory strikes on Iran like President JOE BIDEN has. Then there’s the fact that Iranian agents have been actively seeking to assassinate former Trump officials, which probably doesn’t get Tehran off to a strong start with the Trump team. “They can try all they want,” said the former Trump official. “We tend to remember things like you trying to kill us though, no matter how much you pretend to play nice in diplomatic circles.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | LAI’S HAWAIIAN LAYOVER: Taiwanese President LAI CHING-TE is planning to visit Pacific Island diplomatic allies in the coming weeks. And China doesn’t like that one bit — particularly since it might involve a transit stop in U.S. territory. Beijing urged the Biden administration “not to allow Lai Ching-te to ‘transit,’ not to send any wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, and take concrete actions to uphold China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said today. That was a response to reports that Lai will transit via Hawaii or Guam en route to one or more of Taiwan’s Pacific Island diplomatic allies — Palau, Marshall Islands or Tuvalu — in the coming weeks, per Reuters. These transit visits have angered China in the past, and it has responded by flexing its military muscles in a show of force, such as sending Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zones. SCHOLZ AND PUTIN SPEAK: After two years of not speaking to each other, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN have broken their silence. As our own NETTE NÖSTLINGER and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA report, Scholz spoke to Putin today in a phone call and urged the Russian leader to “end” his war on Ukraine and to “withdraw troops.” A German government spokesperson stated that during the hour-long conversation, Scholz “urged Russia to be prepared to negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace.” Ukraine is not thrilled. In a video posted to X, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said their call “opens a Pandora's Box” that will reduce Moscow’s isolation and allow “Russia to avoid making any changes to its policies, effectively doing nothing.” DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring SAM SKOVE, who joined POLITICO this week to cover defense, space and emerging technologies. Sam goes for the cheapest of cheap beers at D.C. dive bars but will take a good whiskey sour when he can get it. He favors the classic preparation with egg whites, a sadly infrequent method of preparing the drink. He recalls — dimly — having the best one he’s ever had in a bar in Novosibirsk many years ago. “On the same trip, a German, an Austrian and I were introduced as ‘the boys from NATO’ at a club and pushed onstage to perform karaoke to a song we had never heard of,” Sam said. (Apparently the fact that Austria isn’t a NATO member didn’t come up in the bar.) “The embarrassment of bombing the song was offset by the drinks, though.” We can only imagine. Cheers, Sam! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team on X: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1 (P.S. some of us are also on Bluesky: davebrown.bsky.social, rosieperper.bsky.social , paulmcleary.bsky.social, nahaltoosi.bsky.social, phelimkine.bsky.social, ebazail.bsky.social and maggiemiller.bsky.social)
| | | | The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | GABBARD’S GAMUT OF OPINIONS: Trump’s pick to be director of national intelligence, former Hawaii representative TULSI GABBARD, is causing agita within the intel community for both her lack of experience working with the constellation of agencies and for parroting talking points of U.S. adversaries like Russia and China in speeches and social media posts. Much ink has been spilled over Gabbard’s 2019 claims that Syrian President BASHAR AL-ASSAD, whom she met in 2017, was “not an enemy of the United States” and cast doubt on overwhelming evidence that the Assad regime used chemical weapons against its own people (Assad himself denied these allegations.) She also voted against a 2016 resolution condemning Assad’s violence against Syrian civilians that passed the House by a vote of 392 to 3 and in 2019 declined to say whether Assad was a war criminal. Her comments about Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, where she blamed the Biden administration for not acknowledging “Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO” also mirrored Russian propaganda talking points. More recently, Gabbard wrote an X post on Dec. 2023 insinuating that Japan could again become a foe of the United States and warned that the U.S. must “be careful that shortsighted, self-serving leaders do not end up bringing us again face-to-face with a remilitarized Japan” — comments that mirror those found in Chinese state media outlets. It’s going to be an interesting nomination hearing, to say the least.
| | BIDEN’S CHIPS SWAN SONG: The Biden administration unveiled its final semiconductor grant award to tech giant TSMC under the CHIPS and Science Act today, a capstone for the administration’s concerted efforts to boost chips manufacturing in the United States. In a statement, Biden hailed the final agreement toward the manufacturer opening three chips manufacturing facilities in Arizona as “among the most critical milestones yet in the implementation of the bipartisan CHIPS & Science Act.” He added the move “demonstrates how we are ensuring that the progress made to date will continue to unfold in the coming years.” The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company plants in Arizona are seen as a major expansion of the domestic chips manufacturing industry, as Washington seeks to reduce the risks in its supply chain for the critical technology. Read: RENEE DUDLEY, ProPublica: Biden asked Microsoft to “raise the bar on cybersecurity.” He may have helped create an illegal monopoly.
| | | |   | | | | | CAN HEGSETH GET TO 50? Gabbard isn’t the only Trump nominee facing an uphill climb for nomination. Defense secretary nominee and Fox News host PETE HEGSETH is facing a fury of public scrutiny over allegations of sexual harassment and assault. The Hegseth pick was already controversial within Trump world, where the national security Cabinet picks so far have split the difference between hawks and restraint-minded conservatives. “Hegseth is an interesting pick for them because he checks the dewoke-ification box that they want, but the guy is a total internationalist hawk even if he’s maneuvering,” said one person familiar with the transition. “You get these feelings out of Vance's world that they’re frustrated,” the person added. “They’re in a complicated position. The VP at no point can assert himself independently from Trump. Once the personnel stuff is set, that’s a big intervention moment where they miss.”
| | | DEMS CALL TO INVESTIGATE MUSK: Two powerful Democratic lawmakers have called on the Pentagon’s top watchdog and the Justice Department to investigate Elon Musk's reported contacts with Russian officials, given Musk's security clearance and major defense contracts by one of his prime companies, SpaceX. “These relationships between a well-known U.S. adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in U.S. government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk’s reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder,” Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and JACK REED (D-R.I.) wrote today in a letter to the Justice Department and the Department of Defense inspector general. Reed is the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee and Shaheen is slated to become the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next year. We tried to get comment from Musk and SpaceX, but they didn’t immediately respond. FOR AWARENESS: House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas.) will not pursue a waiver to stay on an extra term as the top Republican on the committee, Axios’ JULIEGRACE BRUFKE reports. The news sets up a succession battle for who becomes the next chair of the top House foreign policy panel.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | SHEINBAUM SWIPES AT SALAZAR: Over the course of his tenure in Mexico City, U.S. Ambassador KEN SALAZAR has regularly found himself in hot water with his Mexican counterparts over comments he has made regarding the country’s political debates. But Salazar’s recent tiff with the Mexican government got an added level of response last night — an official video of Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM swatting his recent comments that “Mexico is not safe” and accusation that the Mexican government has shut down coordination with Washington on security issues. In a Spanish-language video posted to her official X account, Sheinbaum said that “there are differences between what the U.S. ambassador says one day, and what he says another day.” “Mexico is a free, independent and sovereign country. And coordination will continue because it’s very important because we have a common border,” she said. “This is a relationship between equals.”
| | | | Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy. | | | | | | | | | — Former Republican Michigan Rep. MIKE ROGERS is in consideration to be Trump’s FBI director, Fox News reports. — Former Homeland Security Secretary JEH JOHNSON resigned from Lockheed Martin’s board. His departure “does not involve a disagreement on any matter relating to the company’s operations, policies or practices,” a recent Lockheed filing states. — HEATHER VENABLE is the new research director for Air Command and Staff College. — Army Lt. Gen. CHRISTOPHER DONAHUE has been nominated as the next commanding general of U.S. Army Europe-Africa and commander of Allied Land Command for NATO in Germany. Donahue is currently serving as commanding general of the 18th Airborne Corps and Fort Liberty in North Carolina. (Sidenote: Donahue was the last U.S. soldier to board the last plane out of Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal on August 30, 2021.)
| | | | — VALERIE HOPKINS, New York Times: In Moscow, Trump’s victory is welcomed, but warily — BEN CASPIT, Al-Monitor: Israel euphoric over Trump's cabinet: Will he pick annexation or Saudi deal? — YAN MATUSEVICH, The Economist: The radioactive flood threatening Central Asia’s breadbasket
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: 2024 Republic of Korea-U.S. Strategic Forum — George Washington University Center for Asian Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Pulse check on Taiwan's democratic resilience: Institutions, domestic debate, and new governance frontiers — George Washington University's Latin American and Caribbean Studies Initiative, 12:30 p.m.: Can Peru's democracy survive? — Council on Foreign Relations, 6 p.m.: The interconnections of science and foreign policy Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is extending fake olive branches that we know are a ruse to hide further aggression. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who will deter Heidi’s proxy forces. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
