Social conservatism in the (second) Trump era

Presented by Novo Nordisk: The preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump's presidential transition.
Nov 22, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO'S West Wing Playbook: Transition of Power

By Megan Messerly, Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan, Lisa Kashinsky and Ben Johansen

Presented by Novo Nordisk

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Social conservatives have not found much of a home in DONALD TRUMP’s Cabinet — at least not in the vein of Focus on the Family founder JAMES DOBSON, televangelist JERRY FALWELL and the rest of the Moral Majority.

Instead, Trump has nearly rounded out his Cabinet with several picks who espouse a new kind of social conservatism, like Defense secretary pick PETE HEGSETH and TULSI GABBARD, who has received the nod for national intelligence director. The narrow, decades-old focus on issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and religious freedom is out, and a broader — some would say more “holistic” — set of “pro-family” policies is in.

This new brand of social conservatism fears parental rights are being undermined by the government. It opposes the teaching of diversity, equity and inclusion, and other ideas it would describe as “woke,” in public schools. It’s worried about the push for transgender rights, even as it mostly acknowledges that the ship has sailed on same-sex marriage. And it wants to use tax policy to incentivize people to get married and have children as policies like a national abortion ban take a back seat.

It is, in part, the result of a broadening Republican coalition — and it’s sparking a debate among traditional social conservatives about where, exactly, they fit in. Some social conservative idealists feel sidelined — particularly frustrated by Trump’s laissez-faire approach to abortion policy — while others who see themselves as realists are hopeful they will continue to have influence in this latest iteration of the Republican Party.

“I've got friends of mine who are in the thought lane exclusively who tend to be more hysterical and see this as, ‘Well, we've lost all power, we’re the kick-me dunces who are just going to get walked on from here through eternity,’” one social conservative thought leader, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, told West Wing Playbook.

Other social conservatives are not just accepting the shift — but embracing it.

“They’re all fighters. They’re all people that understand the threats posed from the Democrats’ culture war. … These are non-conventional picks but the problem is this culture war is non-conventional,” said TERRY SCHILLING, president of the American Principles Project. “We’re not debating gay marriage. We’re talking about giving kids sex changes or allowing boys to compete against girls in sports.”

The Trump transition team didn’t weigh in on this shift in social conservatism, instead saying in a statement that the president-elect’s Cabinet picks “reflect his priority to put America First."

Even as the GOP grapples with what to do with the Christian nationalist strain of conservatism running through the party, this new kind of social conservatism is inherently more secular — rooted more in the philosophy of natural law and what some describe as “common sense” ideas about gender and family — than the social conservatism of old, reflective of a bigger tent party that is itself more outwardly secular than it has been in decades past. The party’s views on gender, another social conservative argued, is more reflective of a “rampant heterosexuality” than it is of a one-man, one-woman, no-sex-before-marriage kind of Christian orthodoxy.

The concerns driving this latest conversation around social conservatism cross party lines: fears about the role of technology on kids, declining U.S. birth rates, definition of gender roles, and the loneliness epidemic among them (even as Democrats by and large strongly support transgender rights). It explains why this vision has attracted the support of people like ELON MUSK, who previously supported Democrats. It speaks to the kind of post-liberal Catholicism that people like Vice President-elect JD VANCE have embraced.

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary, has been all over the map on abortion. But the reaction to him — former Vice President MIKE PENCE aside — has been relatively muted from the party’s socially conservative wing — and even, to the confusion of some, positive. Heritage Foundation President KEVIN ROBERTS called Kennedy’s selection “an enormous victory for the bipartisan, grassroots movement to make America healthy again.”

Traditional social conservatives are, for the most part, embracing this new vision for the party. And they haven’t been entirely shut out. Trump’s secretary of State nominee Sen. MARCO RUBIO and national security advisor pick Rep. MIKE WALTZ, both of Florida, have strong old school social conservative credentials. And they’re holding out hope for others, like RUSS VOUGHT, who is expected to be appointed by Trump to again lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Still, some fear this new vision is coming at the expense of the old one, particularly on abortion. The Trump transition team’s rejection of ROGER SEVERINO, an anti-abortion stalwart, as deputy Health and Human Services secretary this week did nothing to allay those fears.

“They took the old school bucket and they swapped it out with the new school bucket. The question for social conservatives who want both buckets is what does that mean long term?” said a longtime conservative activist who has held leadership roles in prominent conservative organizations, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Cutting out anti-abortion policies “is a massive massive problem, because it all begins there. If you can’t defend the tiniest human beings, and fight for their dignity and right to life, then I’m not sure you have a ton of credibility on the other stuff.”

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POTUS PUZZLER

How many days after the 2000 presidential election did AL GORE concede?

(Answer at bottom.)

Photo of the Week

Matt Gaetz looks out of the Strom Thurmond Room where he met with Republican senators at the Capitol on Wednesday.

Matt Gaetz looks out of the Strom Thurmond Room where he met with Republican senators at the Capitol on Wednesday. | Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla

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Lizárraga to leave SEC in January, via our DECLAN HARTY

Why Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ team looks headed for smooth transition, via our JOSH SIEGEL, BEN LEFEBVRE and KELSEY TAMBORRINO

When Elon Musk’s SpaceX meets the FAA, it’s complicated, via our MICHAEL DOYLE and MIRANDA WILLSON

The reporting in this section is exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2024 transition and beyond, visit politicopro.com.

Heads up, we're all transition all the time over on our live blog: Inside Congress Live: Transition of Power. Bookmark politico.com/transition to keep up with us.`

THE BUREAUCRATS

BAD DAY TO BE THOMAS MASSIE: Trump is reportedly going to offer the Agriculture secretary job to former Sen. KELLY LOEFFLER of Georgia — who lost her seat to RAPHAEL WARNOCK in a close contest in 2021, CNN’s KAITLAN COLLINS scooped. Loeffler is likely to face little opposition in her Senate confirmation hearing. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) was in the running for the job, according to media reports shortly after the election.

THE MAHA INFLUENCE GROWS: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is enlisting associates with close ties to anti-vaccine organizations to help vet and interview candidates for senior roles at the Department of Health and Human Services, even as he publicly seeks to distance himself from the movement he once led, Alice and Adam report. At least three informal advisers connected with the anti-vax movement are assisting Kennedy in filling out his staff.

In an email obtained by POLITICO, Kennedy ally KIM HAINE reached out to a prospective candidate to set up an interview for a top HHS job, identifying herself as a part of the “MAHA transition team.” Haine is the president of the Hawaii chapter of Children’s Health Defense, a leading anti-vax group that Kennedy chaired until he resigned in 2023 to run for president.

FLORIDA ON HIS MIND: Just hours after former congressman MATT GAETZ withdrew his name for consideration for attorney general, Trump tapped former Florida Attorney General PAM BONDI as his next nominee to lead the Department of Justice. As our JOSH GERSTEIN and KYLE CHENEY reported this morning, Bondi is a different type of Trump loyalist, a lawyer that has been by his side since his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. “She hasn’t drawn many national headlines and doesn’t radiate scandal like Trump’s first choice for attorney general, Matt Gaetz,” the pair write. “But when Trump has faced threats to his political career and livelihood, Bondi has been there.”

NOT LIKING MIKE: A top incoming White House aide on Friday shut down speculation that former Michigan Rep. MIKE ROGERS would lead the FBI, our IRIE SENTNER reports. “It’s not happening,” DAN SCAVINO JR., Trump’s incoming deputy chief of staff, wrote on X. Scavino said he had spoken to the president-elect about Rogers, who for years has been floated to take over as FBI director. Trump’s response, according to Scavino: “I have never given it a thought.”

THIS WON’T HELP: The release of a police report with graphic details of sexual assault allegations against Trump’s nominee to be Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, is stoking concerns among current and former Defense Department officials that the agency could backslide on efforts to put an end to those abuses in the military, our JACK DETSCH and PAUL McLEARY report. Officials fear Hegseth, whose nomination is already controversial due to his opposition to women serving in combat, could hurt efforts to recruit women in the military.

“When you have a leader that has already been credibly accused of sexual assault and then already has other signals in his background that he’s not concerned about the contributions that women can make to national security, it could create bad signals up and down the chain of command,” said one Defense Department official. “I imagine there is already profound fear and anxiety among women in uniform.”

 

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Agenda Setting

MR. UNTOUCHABLE: Trump’s sentencing for his conviction in the Manhattan hush money case will be delayed indefinitely, a judge ruled Friday, handing Trump his latest legal victory, our ERICA ORDEN reports. In a one-page decision, Justice JUAN MERCHAN postponed the sentencing, which had been set for Nov. 26, in order to weigh Trump’s bid to dismiss the case entirely based on his electoral victory.

Merchan gave Trump’s lawyers a deadline of Dec. 2 to file their arguments regarding their position that tossing the case is “necessary to avoid unconstitutional impediments to President Trump’s ability to govern.” Manhattan District Attorney ALVIN BRAGG has until Dec. 9 to file a response.

 

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What We're Reading

‘He’s Still Standing and Everyone Else Is Exhausted’: Our Insiders on How Trump Has Changed (POLITICO’s Michael Kruse)

The first transgender member of Congress, a bathroom ban and much angst (WaPo’s Emily Wax-Thibodeaux)

Trump Won Less Than 50 Percent. Why Is Everyone Calling It a Landslide? (POLITICO's Michael Schaffer)

 

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POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

Thirty-six days after the election, then-Vice President Al Gore gave a televised address to the nation conceding to GEORGE W. BUSH, after weeks of legal battles over the recounting of votes in Florida. Ultimately, Bush won Florida by 537 votes, a margin of 0.009 percent.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Jennifer Haberkorn and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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