TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT While Donald Trump is notorious for threatening government shutdowns, his presidential victory could lower the risk of crossing another fiscal cliff next year: the debt ceiling. Come Jan. 1, the nation’s borrowing limit gets turned back on — kicking off months of guessing as to when the nation will hit the “X-date” and default on its loans. To avoid that catastrophic scenario, Congress will need to act first — and the truth is, that could be easier under Trump than if Vice President Kamala Harris had won. That’s because no president — or member of the president’s party — wants to be blamed for the global economic fallout of a U.S. default, and it’s congressional Republicans who have a history of playing chicken with the debt limit to extract policy concessions when Democrats are in charge. “Republicans are complete hypocrites when it comes to debt and debt ceiling — they only care about the debt when there's a Democrat in the White House,” said Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. “When there's a Republican … they couldn't care less. So I anticipate that history will repeat itself.” Outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) summed it up before Trump was even picked as the GOP nominee: “If President Trump is president, then he's going to want everything to go smoothly and tell Republicans to make sure that we don't have a financial crisis of some kind,” Romney told us earlier this year. “And a number of Democrats will agree, and there won't be much of an issue.” That was mostly the case in 2019 when Trump empowered then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to enter monthslong negotiations with then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi on a sweeping budget agreement that averted debt default and defused jitters among Wall Street investors. The power dynamic is likely to be different next year, since the odds of House control are increasingly leaning in Republicans’ favor. But as the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Bill Hoagland noted, any majority will be slim and GOP leaders will struggle to persuade many of their most conservative members to support any bill that lets the U.S. government add more red ink. “The Democrats are still going to have leverage on the debt limit vote,” said Hoagland, who spent 25 years directing funding and budget policy in the Senate. And while Republicans are unlikely to risk a default, that “doesn’t mean they won’t take it up to the last minute or the wall, for negotiation purposes,” he added. An agreement to “raise” the debt limit to a higher total, or “waive” the ceiling until a later date, could again be tied to funding caps — akin to 2023, when then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy struck a debt deal with President Joe Biden, and 2019 under the Pelosi-Mnuchin accord. Yes, Republicans could handle the debt limit on their own (assuming they lock up the House) through the filibuster-skirting magic of budget reconciliation. But that route is unsavory for a couple of reasons, as Democrats acknowledged in 2019 when they decided to leave the debt limit out of the budget resolution that eventually led to passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. Chief among them: Republicans would have to take sole responsibility for the increase. Many budget experts also believe the Senate parliamentarian would force lawmakers to pick a new multi-trillion-dollar total rather than a date for reinstating the debt limit. Politically, the thinking goes, it would be more painful to vote for an increase with a multi-trillion-dollar price tag rather than simply suspend the borrowing cap for a time. “In previous occasions, you've seen it is just easier if you were suspending the debt ceiling to a certain date rather than increasing it by a certain number,” Boyle said. “And when I say easier, I mean in terms of easier to get the votes to pass it.” — Jennifer Scholtes GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Nov. 7, where we are once again desperate for any semblance of weather below 80 degrees. PURSESTRINGS POWER SHIFT A number of tight races still haven’t been called, but the Election Day results are already yielding enormous consequences for the lawmakers who will be overseeing spending bills next year. With the GOP poised to control the Senate, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) will finally make a long-awaited ascension to Appropriations Committee chair, putting the veteran moderate in charge of discretionary spending as the Trump White House likely pursues substantial and controversial cuts. Collins, currently the vice chair, is also the top Republican on the Defense subcommittee. While some have speculated that outgoing Republican Leader Mitch McConnell might lead the full committee or defense subpanel next year, the Kentucky Republican said he hasn’t made any decisions yet. Republican appropriators don’t expect McConnell — a senior spending leader whose input already carries a lot of weight as a former majority leader — to usurp Collins for the full committee gavel. Democratic shuffle: Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) loss to Republican Tim Sheehy opens up the top Democratic spot on the Defense subcommittee, which could set off a cascade of other changes. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who leads the Transportation-HUD subpanel, could potentially take up that open Defense slot based on seniority rules. If he did, a trio of senators named Chris — Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) — could all have a shot at the THUD ranking position, although they all currently maintain their own top subcommittee spots. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who oversees the massive Labor-HHS-Education spending bill, will hold onto her seat after prevailing in a close race called midday Wednesday. Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, the top Republican on the Legislative Branch subcommittee, will also remain in the Senate after beating her independent opponent. In the House: A number of appropriators are locked in competitive races that still haven’t been called. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who leads the Defense appropriations subpanel and would like to continue doing so, maintains a slight lead over his Democratic opponent. Newly installed Legislative Branch Subcommittee Chair David Valadao (R-Calif.) is also ahead of his Democratic opponent, as are fellow Republican appropriators Reps. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.). Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), the top Democrat on the Energy-Water subpanel and the most senior appropriator on the committee, has an edge over her Republican challenger, but her race could be headed for a recount. Meanwhile, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the Commerce-Justice-Science subcommittee, lost his race to Republican Robert Bresnahan. Rep. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) could be next in line for the CJS spot, but she’s also in a position to lead the State-Foreign Operations subcommittee for Democrats in the wake of Rep. Barbara Lee’s exit. If Meng leads CJS, Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) could take the top Democratic spot on State-Foreign Ops. Other races called by the AP on Thursday: Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), Sen.-elect David McCormick (R-Pa.); Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), Rep.-elect Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Rep.-elect Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Rep.-elect Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), Rep.-elect Robert Bresnahan (R-Pa.), Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) — Caitlin Emma and Anthony Adragna SECOND TIME’S THE CHARM? It’s been a decidedly mixed bag for congressional candidates mounting rematches this cycle. A couple of challengers so far have mounted successful do-overs, both in the Empire State — Democratic Reps.-elect Laura Gillen and Josh Riley were victorious this go-around. And up in Alaska, GOP nominee Nick Begich is well positioned to beat Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in Alaska, though votes remain to be counted. But other repeat contenders are locked in tight battles that will come down to the wire. Kirsten Engel is in a close fight against Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.). Will Rollins narrowly trails Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) at the moment. Two other California Democratic repeat candidates — Adam Gray and Rudy Salas — are in tossup races against Reps. John Duarte (R) and David Valadao (R) that are likely to remain uncalled for many days as mail ballots trickle in. And elsewhere around the country … not so much. Republican George Logan lost to Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) again in a competitive seat, while a host Democrats fell short in their rematches: Monica Tranel fell to Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) a second time. Christina Bohannan appears to have fallen just short against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), and Tony Vargas trails Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in one of the country’s most-watched swing seats. In the Pacific Northwest, Joe Kent trails Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) in some of the country’s reddest turf held by a Democrat, while Mike Erickson lags Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) in Oregon. In Texas, two candidates trying again — Democrat Michelle Vallejo and Republican Mayra Flores — lost to Reps. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), respectively. Former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) lost for the second consecutive cycle to Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) after previously holding the seat for one term. — Anthony Adragna
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