THEY’RE ALL JOE MANCHIN NOW House Republicans appear likely to keep their majority — and with it, full GOP control of Congress and the White House come January. As you read this, there are still 25 outstanding House races where party control is on the line, with 11 of them in California. Democrats need to win 19 of those races to flip the House. Republicans only need seven. (More on the state of play below.) But this much is clear: If Republicans keep their majority, it’ll continue to be a slim one. “We're probably going to be in the 221 to 223 range,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise reckoned Friday in a Fox News interview — aka a four- to six-seat majority. (The GOP currently holds 220 seats, not counting one previously-red vacant seat.) Small issues, big impact: The likely miniscule margin is going to empower any small bloc of House lawmakers to shape policy this Congress. And one key House lawmaker from a purple district is already recognizing the power he and others like him will have. “I think on the big issues, the voters spoke pretty clearly on Tuesday night … about the direction they want us to go,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who doesn’t always vote with his party. “Obviously there's going to be negotiation along the way within the conference and within the Congress as a whole, because we will need to work through things. And obviously in tight majorities, you do need to take [specific] members into account.” It’s on some of the more parochial issues where members like Lawler are especially likely to flex their muscle. In other words, don’t expect many Republicans, if any, to object to pursuing a big tax bill. But you can guarantee they’ll have plenty of opinions about what it should look like. Without being prompted by a reporter, Lawler brought up the fate of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction: an income tax break that was significantly curtailed as part of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Lawler and other members from New York and other relatively high-tax states want to see it restored as much as possible. Lawler stopped short of delivering an ultimatum but said he would keep a close eye as a bill is drafted next year. "There will be an opportunity for someone like me and some of my other colleagues who are in these swing districts to have a big seat at the table when it comes to crafting legislation and getting it passed," he said. But, but, but: The areas where the House GOP holdouts can make their mark could be relatively limited. Barring a massive reversal among Senate Republicans, who have generally defended the filibuster, any legislation passed into law along party lines is still going to be subject to the chamber’s 60-vote rule. The exception, of course, is so-called “reconciliation” bills, which generally speaking can deal only with budgetary matters. So while Lawler & Co. can throw their weight around on taxes, other issues — like border security — will still have to be negotiated with Democrats. Speaking of Democrats: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a Thursday evening interview with NY1 that “still have a clear pathway to taking back the majority,” while saying they would control no fewer than 212 seats (which would align with Scalise’s prediction). Even in that worst-case scenario for Democrats, they could expect to exert a lot of leverage on must-pass bills — including federal spending — given the Senate’s filibuster backstop and House Republicans’ scant recent history of exhibiting party unity on those votes. — Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu
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