LOCAL IS NATIONAL — It happened over a decade ago, long before the onset of the Trump era, but Democrats are still trying to recover from the historic drubbing they took in state legislative races in 2010. Republicans won a staggering 680 seats across the country and took control of 22 state legislative chambers in a single night. When President Obama acknowledged that Democrats took “a shellacking” in the midterms, he may have been primarily speaking about congressional races, but it was an even more apt description of the electoral carnage they suffered in state capitals across the country. The ramifications of that GOP wave are still being felt today in state capitals across the map. In states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, Republicans seized on their newfound power — and fresh Census data — to craft new legislative maps tilted decisively in their favor and dominate state House and Senate races for a decade. That’s enabled them to push through major conservative policy priorities like toughening voter restrictions, scrapping environmental protections and stoking culture wars over issues like LGBTQ rights and school curriculums. Democrats have made steady inroads in recent cycles, pushing the balance of power in statehouses back in their favor. A huge shift occurred in 2022 when they secured ruling trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota, while flipping the Pennsylvania House. They are counting on taking another important step forward on Tuesday. But Republicans begin with an edge. They currently hold 55 percent of state legislative seats,according to Ballotpedia , and maintain majorities in 56 legislative chambers, compared to 41 for Democrats. While Democratic gains in 2022 were centered mostly on the Midwest, Republicans strengthened their power in the South, widening margins in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida and the Carolinas. There’s also been a hardening of partisan divides in state capitals — increasingly mirroring the rancor on Capitol Hill. More than 80 percent of Americans now live in states where one party has complete control of the government, with a roughly even split among those residing in Democratic and Republican-led states. Those dynamics are certain to change on Nov. 5. Over at POLITICO’s The Fifty, reporters have been traveling to battlegrounds to get a ground view of the most competitive state legislative races, with dispatches from Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee — the main group focused on winning power in the states — points to boosted fundraising and increased collaboration with aligned groups, like The States Project, as reasons for confidence about their prospects. But they also acknowledge that many of these races could be as tight as the presidential contest — and they’re bracing for the likelihood of numerous recounts, which would bring prolonged uncertainty and add to the tense political environment. Two of the biggest opportunities for Democrats to make further inroads are in Wisconsin and Arizona. After the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the state’s gerrymandered legislative maps, Democrats have their best chance in a decade to eat into Republicans supermajorities in the Assembly and Senate. Arizona is tantalizing for a different reason: Democrats are currently just one seat short of flipping both the state House and Senate. If they succeed, it would solidify the party’s recent upsurge — including winning the governor’s race and flipping a Senate seat — in the rapidly growing Sun Belt state. New Hampshire is also a top target. Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers, and control has flipped back and forth between the parties for decades. Yet Democrats are also playing defense in states where they’ve made recent inroads. In Michigan and Minnesota, in particular, Republicans are eager to pillory them for veering too far left and pushing through huge spending increases. In Pennsylvania, the only state in the nation with a divided legislature, Democrats are nervous about losing the House. Total Republican control would serve as a strong foil to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and possibly impede his national ambitions. The last two years of divided control in Washington have spotlighted the degree to which state lawmakers are driving the country’s policy agenda. On issues like privacy protections, school vouchers and abortion access, gridlock on Capitol Hill has empowered state legislatures to fill the void. While the outcome in Nov. 5 remains up in the air, there’s one thing that is clear: Much of the country’s most important legislative action will remain in the states. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at pdemko@politico.com or lcrampton@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @pauldemko and @liz_crampton.
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