RIDING THE WAVE It’s Election Day, and our team has assembled a guide on how to navigate the waves of results that will roll in Tuesday night and throughout the coming days. Every race call is big news for some of our readers — a single result can mean the difference between having a job or not. But for Tuesday (and beyond), we’re focusing on what certain calls may signal in terms of chamber control. For now, we’ll explore the Senate, because we’re anticipating the House will take a few days, at least. House holdup: We’ll start with that reality check: It’s very unlikely we have a call on which party will control the House on Tuesday night, or possibly even this week. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, but a small number of highly competitive races are expected to determine if the chamber flips or not. Our Daniella Diaz rounded those up on Monday. What we’re watching: Democrats are on defense in the race for the Senate, trying to cling onto seven seats in either red or swing states. Republicans are on defense in two red states — mainly Texas, but also Florida — which have spiced up the map in the home stretch. And don’t forget Nebraska, where an independent challenger is making the race tougher for a GOP incumbent. Still, if Republicans flip even one seat Democratic seat, chances are that they’ve got control of the chamber, because West Virginia is all but certain to go to Republicans given the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. That call for the Senate majority, if it comes tonight, is still likely to come in on the later side, thanks to a concentration of battlegrounds out West in the map this year. MONTANA as a tipping point? Sen. Jon Tester is the lone Democrat in statewide office in the Treasure State, and while he’s defied tough election odds before, this is the hardest reelection battle he’s faced. Republican Tim Sheehy was handpicked by fellow Montanan and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Steve Daines, who is leading the GOP effort to retake the Senate. In solid Trump country, Tester will need a lot of voters to split their tickets in order to keep his seat. Our read: If Montana flips, it’s big, but not necessarily a bellwether for other races. We shall see. OHIO as a signal: One of the tightest races in the country features incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown against GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Brown flipped the seat in 2006 and has held on, but Trump has won the increasingly Republican state twice. Brown is another Democrat whose victory depends on thousands of Trump voters splitting their ticket to send him back to the Senate. Our read: If Ohio goes for Moreno, it signals a good night for Senate Republicans. MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA & WISCONSIN: Blue wall or red wave? The top of the ticket may have a big impact in the “blue wall” states that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to win. Here, the Senate contests are more aligned with the presidential race: serious tossup status. Our read: If Republicans Mike Rogers, David McCormick and Eric Hovde come out on top, Senate Republicans are having a really good night. If not, an upper chamber red wave may be out of reach. NEVADA & ARIZONA: Not a tsunami, but huge: In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has been polling ahead of GOP candidate Kari Lake in recent weeks in the race for the seat vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. In Nevada, the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has poured more than $6 million into Republican Sam Brown’s campaign in the last two weeks to try to boost his challenge to Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen. Our read: If Brown and Lake claim victory, Republicans will be ready to declare a huge Senate red wave. MARYLAND & VIRGINIA: Popular two-term Republican governor Larry Hogan made typically blue Maryland into a real race this cycle as Democrat Angela Alsobrooks tries to keep the seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin, in Democratic hands. Polling in recent weeks put Alsobrooks ahead by a dozen points, with Hogan behind but outperforming Trump. Our read: These races have been leaning towards Democrats. If that doesn’t hold and they flip red, keep an ear out for tsunami sirens from the GOP. TEXAS & NEBRASKA: Some red a states are on Tuesday’s watchlist. Turning Texas blue seemed like a long shot at the start of this cycle, but both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC have made massive investments in Rep. Colin Allred’s challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz as polls showed a closer race than expected. In Nebraska, two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is favored. But a win by independent challenger Dan Osborn would be a gutting loss for the Senate GOP. Our read: These seats staying Republican wouldn’t be that surprising. But if they don’t win in either, it’s a signal that Democrats could have a chance at holding onto the Senate. — Katherine Tully-McManus, with help from Anthony Adragna GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Nov. 5, where it’s finally Election Day.
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