Cardin’s 2025 predictions

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Dec 23, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Sen. Ben Cardin stands at a lectern.

Cardin, who championed anti-corruption legislation throughout his time in Congress, has spent his last 14 months in office at the head of the Senate’s powerful foreign policy committee. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

With help from John Sakellariadis, Daniel Lippmann and Steven Overly

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PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off starting Wednesday for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. Happy holidays to the readers who make this the best job in the world. 

Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), a titan of the Democratic foreign policy establishment, has two bold predictions for Congress as he prepares to leave office.

In an interview with NatSec Daily, conducted ahead of the Maryland Democrat’s retirement at the end of this Congress, Cardin said he’s hopeful Republicans will hold the line on support for Ukraine when DONALD TRUMP retakes the White House.

“Trump has a different way of conducting foreign policy, but at the end of the day, I expect that he's going to want to make sure that Ukraine actually wins this war because he knows the consequences if they don't,” Cardin said.

He also argues that Democrats’ growing anger with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s wartime policies in Gaza won’t actually damage Democratic support for Israel in the long-term — a view other lawmakers on the left dispute.

“There's a lot of Democrats who have a lot of problems with the direction that Prime Minister Netanyahu is taking, particularly who's in his coalition government,” Cardin said. “But that's not Israel. That's the current Cabinet coalition. And that shouldn't be translated into hostility toward the state of Israel.”

In November, Congress considered for the first time ever on a measure that would have blocked arms sales to Israel. It didn’t pass, but 19 senators, all members of the Democratic caucus, backed the measure despite urgings from the White House and pro-Israel Democrats like Cardin to oppose it. Cardin called such votes “misguided” but said he interpreted it as opposition to Netanyahu, but not Israel. “I'm not concerned about the support of the Democratic Party for Israel,” he said.

Cardin, who championed anti-corruption legislation throughout his time in Congress, has spent his last 14 months in office at the head of the Senate’s powerful foreign policy committee — ironically taking on the role after the indictment of then-Chair BOB MENENDEZ on corruption and foreign agent charges in September 2023. He also chaired the committee during Menendez’s first brush with corruption charges in 2017 and 2018.

Yet his experience did not prepare him for the changed climate on the committee, which under Cardin and his Republican counterpart, Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), became mired in partisan backlogs that stymied much of the committee’s work, including confirming ambassadors and other senior national security positions.

Risch rejects that characterization.

“Pointing fingers is counterproductive after a particularly difficult year that lacked in both substantive policy hearings and relevant legislative movement,” Risch said in a statement. “I look forward to a more substantive agenda in SFRC under my chairmanship, to include bipartisan votes to support Israel and President Trump’s nominees.”

Cardin argued partisanship made it more challenging for the committee to function normally ahead of the election, but added that the changes aren’t exclusive to the committee room. The Senate itself has changed, hurting serious policy work in the process, he said.

“Everything has become noxiously more partisan,” he observed. “When I first got to the Senate, it was a body in which we prided ourselves as members having an opportunity to offer amendments, get votes, have great debates, a bit of unscripted action — which is always fun because you feel like your speech can actually change votes. Now, it's not like that.”

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The Inbox

A GAZA CEASE-FIRE NEARS? Disagreements between Israel and Hamas are narrowing, potentially meaning a cease-fire deal in the Gaza Strip could be coming into closer view.

As Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and MAAYAN LUBELL report, questions about the names of Palestinian prisoners to be released as part of a hostage release deal and future governance of the Gaza Strip still hang over talks, but both Palestinian and Israeli officials have signaled that key sticking points are being ironed out amid a fresh diplomatic push from Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. mediators.

As of now, however, no travel of U.S. officials to the Middle East for talks has been announced for the coming weeks. Such activity would often accompany final negotiations for a deal.

A MAN, A PLAN, A CANAL, PANAMA: Trump’s threats to retake the Panama Canal are landing poorly in Latin America, as countries rally in support of Panama.

At a press conference today, Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM expressed “solidarity” with the Panamanian people and with Panamanian President JOSÉ RAÚL MULINO and stated that “the Panama Canal belongs to the Panamanians.” That’s after Colombian President GUSTAVO PETRO said Sunday that “dignity cannot be negotiated.”

Trump is continuing to throw barbs at Panama over the strategically vital waterway. Shortly after Mulino’s statement, the president-elect posted on Truth Social an image of an American flag in a river, writing: “Welcome to the United States Canal.”

MAKING SENSE OF THE SPECIAL ENVOYS: Trump has been appointing a lot of special envoys lately, and our own NAHAL TOOSI dives into the confusion — and turf battles — that could result, along with what the strategy could be behind all the different roles.

As Nahal writes, “many special envoys now require Senate confirmation, but there are ways to get them in the role temporarily without such approval — for up to nearly a year, if Trump can get waivers from congressional committees. That means Trump could put the envoys in place faster than the traditional players, even if lawmakers are not certain about the exact duties involved.”

In the latest such postings over the weekend, Trump tapped former Inter-American Development Bank chief MAURICIO CLAVER-CARONE to be special envoy to Latin America. He also picked Apprentice producer MARK BURNETT to be a special envoy to the United Kingdom.

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.

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Transition 2024

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — THREE MORE FOR ODNI: PATRICK WITT, JOE FRANCESCON and JOE KENT are on the ODNI landing team for the Trump transition, two people familiar with transition matters told our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS and DANIEL LIPPMAN.

Francescon boasts the most extensive experience of the three inside the U.S. intelligence community. A former NSA analyst, he also worked on Trump’s National Security Council and then as the deputy assistant secretary for special operations at the Pentagon and deputy chief of staff at the Department of Defense. Witt, a former McKinsey consultant and New Orleans Saints’ back-up quarterback, served as the deputy chief of staff at the Office of Personnel Management in the first Trump administration.

Kent, who served briefly at the CIA, has unsuccessfully run for Congress twice in the last four years. In 2022, the former member of the Army special forces nonetheless unseated Rep. JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER (R-Wa.) — one of just 10 House Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment. In that year’s primary, he drew endorsements from MATT GAETZ, MICHAEL FLYNN and Trump.

In a statement, BRIAN HUGHES, a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition, declined to comment on the specific appointments to the ODNI landing team but said the team is “connecting with their counterparts at the departments and agencies.”

ICYMI: Lewandowski is helping Noem with DHS transition by John and Daniel

 

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Keystrokes

ROUNDS OF POLICY: Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) has a message for Democrats antsy about tech mogul ELON MUSK’s growing influence: It’s not new and it carries some upsides.

In an interview with our own STEVEN OVERLY on the POLITICO Tech podcast, Rounds said that Musk’s actions to tank a bipartisan spending bill last week were “nothing new” and that “we get that kind of pressure on a regular basis.” He insisted that Musk “brings a wealth of new ideas” that are “refreshing with regard to finding efficiencies.”

“It's pressure,” Rounds added. “But, you know, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.”

He also told Steven that a robust cyber and AI agenda must be a key priority for the incoming administration, arguing that the U.S. needs to win the cyber and AI competition with China for economic and security reasons.

“We're ahead of our adversaries right now with regard to the vast majority of areas that AI is being implemented in, but we're not that far ahead of them,” Rounds said. “And this is a race that doesn't have an end in sight, but we have to win it, right?”

ON THE HILL

NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK: While lawmakers hustled to reach a spending deal before the holidays, incoming Senate Majority Leader JOHN THUNE dropped GOP committee assignments for the next Congress. Here’s what NatSec Daily readers need to know.

Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) bested JOHN CORNYN of Texas for the gavel of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Meanwhile, Sens.-elect JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) and TIM SHEEHY (R-Mont.) are joining the Armed Services Committee in the 119th Senate.

And expect to see a few new faces on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sens.-elect JOHN CURTIS (R-Utah) and DAVE McCORMICK (R-Penn.) as well as Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) and a few new Democratic members are joining the committee (Senate Democratic Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has yet to announce committee assignments).

Broadsides

BAKU EMBASSY’S SURPRISE SWIPES: The U.S. embassy in Azerbaijan is not thrilled with some commentary about U.S. policy circulating in the country’s media ecosystem.

In recent weeks, Azerbaijan state media has accused U.S. officials of “cowardice” and “open blackmail” and slammed the U.S. for pursuing a “hostile” policy toward Azerbaijan. The U.S. has hosted joint military exercises with neighboring Armenia, with which Azerbaijan has some lingering territorial disputes, in recent years.

Writing on X, the U.S. embassy called criticism of “imaginary U.S. boogeymen” a “lot of schoolyard bully language” and singled out the Hefta program on Azerbaijani state broadcaster AZTV.

“Nice try,” the embassy continued. “But it won’t distract attention from the fact that over 300 political prisoners are in jail in Azerbaijan on flimsy charges and spending the holidays away from their families.”

The sharp comments speak to the deteriorating relationship between Baku and Washington in recent years. Baku, once a stalwart U.S. ally, has grown increasingly aggressive toward neighboring Armenia and deepened cooperation with Russia and China.

Transitions

— Trump's flurry of diplomatic nominations continued over the weekend. He tapped former Ambassador to the Holy See CALLISTA GINGRICH as ambassador to Switzerland and former Ambassador to Sweden KEN HOWERY as ambassador to Denmark. He also said he’d name Houston Rockets owner TILMAN FERTITTA as ambassador to Italy, per our own GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING.

— Meanwhile, at the Pentagon, Trump unveiled a barrage of picks, as our own JACK DETSCH reported on Sunday (for Pros!). Trump will tap STEPHEN FEINBERG for deputy secretary of Defense, ELBRIDGE COLBY as undersecretary for policy, MICHAEL DUFFEY for undersecretary for acquisitions and sustainment, and EMIL MICHAEL for undersecretary for research and engineering.

What to Read

JENNIFER HANSLER, CNN: Correspondence in captivity: Letters and phone calls from PAUL WHELAN reveal Russian tactics toward American detainee

RUBY MELLEN and MOHAMAD EL CHAMAA, The Washington Post: To evade Assad’s secret police, Syrians developed a code language

JACK HUNTER, Responsible Statecraft: RAND PAUL 'Festivus' grievances: US millions for Ukraine TikTokers

Tomorrow Today

— No events tomorrow, as we move into Christmas and Hanukkah.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we hope will retire soon. 

Thanks to our producer, Raymond Rapada, who we hope stays on our team for as long as possible.

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When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more.

 
 

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