Forecasts of skyrocketing electricity demand are colliding with America’s struggle to get things built — think long-distance transmission lines, solar projects, big battery storage and high-tech upgrades to the grid. Zero-carbon electricity has expanded quickly in the United States. Plans to build high-voltage power lines are progressing significantly for the first time in years. But neither is coming online fast enough to replace the steady retirement of fossil fuel power plants, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp. That was the unusually grim conclusion from the top grid monitor’s annual 10-year forward-looking assessment, writes Peter Behr. Peak demand for power is expected to grow by 128,000 megawatts over the next four years — the energy equivalent of 60 huge coal-fired power plants — quintupling earlier forecasts. Data centers to power an artificial intelligence boom, the expansion of advanced manufacturing, electric vehicle purchases and the scaling up of electrification across the economy are all driving that demand. Advocates of fossil fuels say the grid’s precarious state is an indication that clean power is a liability. Wind and solar power don’t run 24-7 in the way that natural-gas-fired plants do. Either way, industry analysts and regulators who aren’t tied to any single corner of the industry say long-range power lines are critical for building a more resilient grid. “As we’ve seen in Winter Storm Uri and the polar vortex events, these big regional lines are wheeling power across a huge footprint, and that is what keeps the lights on,” Joe Sullivan, a Minnesota utility regulator, told Jeffrey Tomich in a recent interview. Efforts to accelerate the often yearslong process of building out such power lines have bedeviled lawmakers. The most recent bipartisan push failed to muster enough support this week. The Biden administration has set ambitious climate targets, including stringent pollution standards for power plants and generous tax credits for EVs. Just today, the Environmental Protection Agency greenlit California’s request to phase out gasoline-powered cars by 2035. If it survives the Trump administration, the plan could dramatically and swiftly reshape the industry. California is the fifth-largest economy in the world, and 11 other states — totaling 30 percent of the U.S. car market — plan to enact its climate standard for cars. The more EVs hit the road, the more electricity will be needed to power them. And that’s not to mention the vast quantities of energy needed to drive AI data centers. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump could throw yet another wrench into the planning process. He has pledged to boost fossil fuel development and use his presidential powers to accelerate the delivery of new power plants. Electricity is one of the most decentralized industries in the country. It’s governed by the decisions of a dizzying array of utilities, regional grids, and state and federal regulators. It is, and remains, extremely hard to get things built — even if a tech billionaire with Trump’s ear needs the energy.
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