| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → A new hire in the PMO. → CHRYSTIA FREELAND's big day. → Oh yeah! There's a by-election today. |  | FIRST THING'S FIRST | | |
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Prime Minister's Office has brought back a veteran of Trump 1.0 as the president-elect's inauguration edges near.
— Band, back together: DIAMOND ISINGER returns to the PMO next month as special adviser on Canada-U.S. relations, Playbook has learned. Isinger will work on policy, communications, stakeholder relations, and relations with the incoming Trump administration, we're told. Isinger previously worked on the PMO's cross-border war room in 2017 and 2018 alongside BRIAN CLOW and SIMON BEAUCHEMIN. She also worked for then-Trade Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND in 2016. | | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on a visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, in June 2023. | Pool photo by Valentyn Ogirenko | FREELAND DAY — The finance minister's relationship with Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU dominated Hill chatter last week. Globe and Mail reporting fueled rumors of a fiscal rift and Cabinet shift — out with longtime No. 2 CHRYSTIA FREELAND, in with forever-maybe candidate MARK CARNEY. — Status report: Playbook asked around about the state of affairs between Cabinet's top dogs. We found no evidence of personal animus between the two. A source familiar with their relationship, granted anonymity to speak freely, described The Globe and Mail's reporting as "overblown." Finance and the PMO always endure "push and pull," the official said, adding that Freeland and Trudeau "get along incredibly well" and always have. — Consider the following: A few weeks ago, Trudeau tapped Freeland to lead the Canada-U.S. Cabinet committee. She's known as fiercely loyal to Trudeau — which isn't lost on the PM. Would Trudeau really ask Freeland to helm a high-stakes committee amidst final prep for a Fall Economic Statement if he didn't trust her? — Natural tension: Old hands in the land of budget making describe healthy tension between a spending-averse Finance department, a Prime Minister's Office with political priorities, and a finance minister who ultimately reports to the PM — but also has politics in mind. With billions of dollars on the line, one senior Liberal told Playbook, they hope there's some tension. — FES o'clock: Meanwhile, Freeland has a fiscal update to unveil at 4 p.m. Need a metaphor for her task at hand? The Star's RYAN TUMILTY offers up a tightrope. The fishbowl's biggest question about that document: What's the federal deficit? Legions of observers in closed-door lock-ups will flip to the FES tables for the answer. Expect Freeland to emphasize the federal debt as a share of GDP — her preferred measure of fiscal discipline. — Dropped from the agenda: National Post's JOHN IVISON has sources saying the government's planned C$250 GST rebate checks will be nowhere in sight in the FES. PAUL WELLS draws his own conclusions. → A few of the goodies: A "senior government official" told The Canadian Press that today's fiscal update will "include measures to incentivize business investment in Canada," part of an effort to "keep and attract capital in Canada in the face of the coming U.S. administration with an 'America first' agenda." The Logic's KEVIN CARMICHAEL scooped Sunday that Ottawa will renew investment incentives worth billions. His colleague, CATHERINE MCINTYRE, recently reported on draft FES proposals that could encourage investment in "startups and scale-ups." Freeland previously announced that she'll remove pension fund investment caps in Canadian companies. The Globe confirmed the minister's plan to incentivize billions in pension fund investments in AI data centers. — Peanut gallery: Freeland's predecessor took to the airwaves with some advice. Former Finance Minister BILL MORNEAU told CTV's VASSY KAPELOS that Ottawa should drop its digital services tax on tech giants — a measure that raises American hackles. — Shuffle watch: Playbook was already on high alert for a front-bench reset when the CBC's DAVID COCHRANE dropped a Sunday night bombshell. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will step down from Cabinet when the next shuffle happens, Cochrane reported, citing Fraser's preference for being closer to his family in Nova Scotia. Relatedly, that province will need a new Liberal leader following ZACH CHURCHILL's recent resignation. Cochrane added to the fever pitch of speculation about MARK CARNEY's potential ascent to the Cabinet table. The Globe first floated Wednesday as swearing-in day at Rideau Hall. Rumors of a shuffle have waxed and waned since the summer. "If not this month, surely next" has been the defining refrain. But Fraser's looming departure increases the urgency. We mapped out the January calendar, just in case. | | | | Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | For your radar | |
BLUE CHRISTMAS — If Canada's electoral map is readying for a sea of blue, consider today a preview. Almost nobody in Ottawa is talking about the Cloverdale-Langley City by-election. The contest hasn't had nearly the wattage of leader attention as other recent votes.
It all appears to be a foregone conclusion — and a sign of things to come. — CPC safe: That's 338Canada's projection for the British Columbia riding that sits on the edge of the lower mainland's cluster of seats. It wasn't always so. — 2015 Flashback: Liberal candidate JOHN ALDAG had a steep mountain to climb in the newly formed riding. His party nabbed less than 12 percent of redistributed 2011 votes. Conservatives had taken nearly 60 percent, and the New Democrats doubled the Liberals. Aldag rode JUSTIN TRUDEAU's momentum to a comfortable victory with 45 percent of votes — 10 points clear of the Tories and 30 ahead of the NDP. He won 80 percent of polls, evenly spread across the riding. (Check out the poll-by-poll map on digital campaigner STEPHEN TAYLOR's website.) Cloverdale-Langley City was a symbol of the dawn of Trudeau's era, same as so many suburban seats that swung hard in previously unexpected places. — Times are-a changin': Aldag and CPC'er TAMARA JANSEN fought close elections in 2019 and 2021. Jansen won the first. Aldag took the rematch. Now, with Jansen back in the running and Aldag losing his bid for a second act in provincial politics, Poilievre is poised to send a deep-blue message. — Shifting demographics: This part of the province could be shedding its reputation as a regional "Bible Belt." MIKE MCKINNON, a senior consultant at Enterprise Canada who has advised a pair of NDP premiers, explained the dynamics on the ground. "The political face of Langley, Surrey and the Fraser Valley is changing. Many young families have moved there after being priced out of Vancouver. There are many new Canadians. With that, this riding is becoming even more urban, more diverse and it’s shedding some of its traditional political values," he told Playbook. The region has voted for New Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives during the past two federal and provincial elections, he said. "But one of the only things uniting people across political stripes right now is being justifiably pissed off about the cost of living and directing that anger at their current governments." — Last chance to submit your prediction for today's vote-share breakdown. Drop us a line. Closest to the pin gets a Playbook mention. | | COUNTDOWNS | |
Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.
→ Countdown to New Year’s Eve: 15 days, though we expect the annual Public Accounts of Canada to be unveiled long before we bid adieu to 2024. Sitting days, including today, until the Christmas break: 2, at the absolute most … Summer: 71, at the absolute most. Calendar days until Statistics Canada's next inflation data: 1 … The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 44 … The federal by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C.: 0. The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Halifax, N.S.: 76. Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us! | | YOU TELL US | |
Question for Playbook readers: What wasn’t on your BINGO card at the start of 2024? Drop us a line. We’ll share a selection of your replies later this week.
| | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair a Cabinet meeting at 9:30 a.m. He'll also attend the "Laurier Club Holiday Event" at the Canadian Museum of History. He's scheduled to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. The annual bevy of Cabmins joining the PM includes AHMED HUSSEN, JONATHAN WILKINSON, GUDIE HUTCHINGS, JENNA SUDDS, RECHIE VALDEZ, SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA, KAMAL KHERA, MARC MILLER, YA'ARA SAKS, ARIF VIRANI, CHRYSTIA FREELAND and PATTY HAJDU. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend Cabinet. At 4 p.m., she will present the FES in the House of Commons. — Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE or Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will share his thoughts on the 2024 Fall Economic Statement around 4 p.m. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend the tabling of the FES. She will later respond in the foyer and Parliament to the FES.
| | | DULY NOTED | | |
7 p.m. Longtime Hill journalist PHIL LING's going away bash gets underway at the Métropolitain.
| | MEDIA ROOM | |
— “The fall sitting of the House of Commons has not been a tribute to the health of our democracy,” Dalhousie’s LORI TURNBULL concludes in Policy magazine.
— Policorner's AHMAD ELBAYOUMI scooped the Peel Regional Police Chief's cameo at a PC Party fundraiser attended by Premier DOUG FORD and Brampton Mayor PATRICK BROWN. — The national chief of the Assembly of First Nations is calling on all members of Parliament to send a First Nations water bill to the Senate before the holiday break, CP reports. — Canada’s PIERRE POILIEVRE era will begin in 2025, STEPHEN MAHER writes in Maclean’s. — A question on The Hub via DAVID COLETTO: Is there even still a ‘center’ in Canadian politics? — MAX BEARAK and PAT KANE reported for The New York Times from Haisla, Gitxsan and Nisga’a lands. The headline: Gas could mean billions for Indigenous people in Canada. Some fear a cost. — Today’s vote of confidence in Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ is just the latest step in a process that will culminate in a “snap” election Feb. 23, POLITICO’s NETTE NÖSTLINGER reports from Berlin. — And from Paris, POLITICO’s VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT reports from that President EMMANUEL MACRON has tapped FRANÇOIS BAYROU to serve as France’s fourth prime minister this year, tasking the longtime centrist to help steer the country out of a political and budgetary quagmire. | | | PROZONE | | |
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: All eyes on Freeland's FES — and those anchors.
In other news for Pro readers: — Trump’s tardy transition causes complications. — America’s clean energy rivals will take advantage of Trump 2.0, EU green chief says. — NOAA: 2024 temperatures set to break last year's global record. — US spells out ideas for handling national security trade disputes. — Atmospheric rivers are tough to predict. This project could help. | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD today to International Trade Minister MARY NG, Liberal MP JUDY SGRO, former Liberal MP KENT HEHR, Sen. STAN KUTCHER and Manulife's SCOTTY GREENWOOD. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Noted: About three thousand people gathered in Colwood, British Columbia, on Sunday to celebrate the life of former B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN. PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, federal NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and B.C. Premier DAVID EBY were among those to pay their respects/ The federal government offered this explanation on "GST holiday" compliance to DAN KELLY of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business: "We expect businesses to comply with the new rules, but we don’t intend to chase after small businesses that may struggle to implement the measure in time. There remain pathways for businesses and all Canadians to obtain their GST relief on qualifying goods through the CRA." Recommendation 1 of the House heritage committee on the future of the CBC: “That CBC/Radio-Canada, as part of its renewed mandate, ensure that the decision to grant senior executive compensation tied to performance be the result of careful consideration and not a customary practice.” Spotted: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, rallying supporters on the island of Montreal alongside Pierrefonds-Dollard candidate TANYA TOLEDANO. Conservative MP KAREN VECCHIO, taking time in the House to thank her sister’s heart donor and a medical team “who have made us all believe in miracles.” Conservative data specialist HAMISH MARSHALL, pumping up the role his firm's voter ID platform played in TIM HOUSTON's recent reelection as Nova Scotia premier. Families Minister JENNA SUDDS, attempting fun in a social post about the "GST holiday." Sen. JEAN-GUY DAGENAIS, cracking wise at the start of his Senate farewell: “It seems a little odd to me that a political career in Canada, at least in the Senate, has to end at age 75, when it seems like 75 has recently become the minimum age for getting into politics in the U.S.” Read tributes to Dagenais here. — In the gallery for Dagenais’ farewell: Ambassadors WANG DI (China), DAULETBEK KUSSAINOV (Kazakhstan), KALLAYANA VIPATTIPUMIPRATES (Thailand), former Sen. VICTOR OH and former Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE. Movers and shakers: The Business Council of Canada's HOWARD FREMETH is departing for a new gig as VP communications for the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs. Former Halifax Mayor MIKE SAVAGE is officially now Nova Scotia’s 34th lieutenant governor. KRISTIN MURRAY has joined the Banff Forum board of directors. Media mentions: CONNIE WALKER is joining Journalism at The Creative School as a faculty member beginning July 1. She will also be appointed as the Velma Rogers Journalism Chair. | | | | Write your own chapter in the new Washington. From the Lame Duck Congress Series to New Administration insights, POLITICO Pro delivers intelligence across 22+ policy areas to help you anticipate and navigate change. Discover how a Pro subscription empowers you. Learn more today. | | | | | | | ON THE HILL | |
Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.
11 a.m. The House status of women committee hears witnesses on hate-motivated violence. Behind closed doors: The House environment committee will be at work on three upcoming reports. | | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: We were looking for former Prime Minister JOHN DIEFENBAKER.
Props to STEPHEN RUSTON, KEVIN BOSCH, JOHN DILLON, MARK AGNEW, JOHN MERRIMAN, ALEX BALLINGALL, PAUL PARK, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, ANTHONY VALENTI, J. ROLLAND VAIVE, MARC SHAW, GORDON RANDALL, J.D.M. STEWART, JANE DOULL, BOOTS VAISEY, BOB PLAMONDON (author of an upcoming book about Dief: "Freedom Fighter")... … ADAM SMITH, NATHAN GORDON, MARC LEBLANC, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, GEOFFREY CHAMBERS, FRANCIS DOWNEY, ANDREW FITZPATRICK, ELIZABETH BURN, JOANNA PLATER, SARA MAY, RAY DEL BIANCO, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, COLE HOGAN, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and DUANE BRATT. Props for Thursday's question to JOHN ECKER, TRACY SALMON and CHARLIE SKIPWORTH. Today’s question: Excluding today, how many times has the Trudeau government tabled fall economic statements in December? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
