The endgame begins

Dec 21, 2024

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Happy solstice. Let’s get to it:

→ JAGMEET SINGH and PIERRE POILIEVRE agree on one thing.

→ JUSTIN TRUDEAU shuffles his Cabinet.

→ We sort through the what's next of it all.

→ A packed Canada Gazette before the holidays.

THE FIRST THING

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre leaves a news conference on Parliament Hill December 20, 2024 in Ottawa, Canada. Canada's embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will announce a major cabinet shuffle, days after the surprise resignation of his longtime number two shocked the nation. (Photo by Dave Chan / AFP) (Photo by DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

"The chaos cannot continue," Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said Friday in a letter to the governor general asking for the House to be recalled ASAP. | AFP via Getty Images

RUNNIN' ON EMPTY — The final freezing cold Friday before Christmas turned into a newsy one in a town begging for a break.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU's Cabinet shuffle wasn't the half of it. More on that later.

— First, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH pulled his support for the government with a pledge to unveil a non-confidence motion "in the next sitting" of the House of Commons.

For what it’s worth, Singh ripped up a governing deal with Liberals in September, but continued to prop them up anyway. It's not clear when Singh wants to bring down the government — or when he'll get the chance.

— Next, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE demanded an election ASAP.

He asked Governor General MARY SIMON, who had just finished swearing in a crop of new ministers, to recall Parliament for a non-confidence vote before the end of the year. GGs don't wade in when opposition leaders make unorthodox requests.

— What happens now? Several x-factors are competing to define this next chapter.

→ Trudeau's call: The PM is said to be considering his future. If Trudeau does decide to step away, he’ll control the timing.

He could prorogue Parliament to buy time for a months-long leadership race. Or he could conceivably step away immediately and a replacement PM could move into the vacuum — an unlikely outcome in modern Canadian politics.

There's a lot of chatter about an "interim" party leader and prime minister. Historian J.D.M. STEWART told us no Canadian PM has ever served on an interim basis. PMs are PMs.

Should this PM stay on, he'll have a looser grip on power than he's had in years.

→ House agenda: Singh may hope to use an opposition day to force a confidence vote, but he doesn't entirely control the timing of it. The government assigns those days — and could conceivably push them to the end of March.

But the Liberals need to schedule seven opposition days between Jan. 27 and March 26, and the House only sits 25 days in that period. See: Standing Order 81(10)(a).

→ Ford factor: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is widely expected to go to the polls this spring. A provincial campaign could sap resources from every major party. New Democrats in particular share resources with their cousins all around the country. Resources could thin, quickly.

— Seat-count watch: Keep a close eye on the race for second place in federal opinion polls when PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER drops his next projection on Sunday.

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DRIVING THE DAY

"Everything is negotiable in the House of Commons. It always has been," David McGuinty said Friday after being sworn in as public safety minister at Rideau Hall. | AFP via Getty Images

WELCOME TO CABINET — DAVID MCGUINTY set the tone on the way to his swearing-in as public safety minister.

Asked by Global News' MACKENZIE GRAY how it felt to enter Cabinet after 20 years as an MP, McGuinty replied: "I think of TOM BRADY," the legendary NFL quarterback who started his career way down the depth chart. "Hang in there, folks."

— The shorter route: In happier times, ministers soak up a pleasant stroll along the driveway through the Rideau Hall grounds, admiring trees planted by royalty and world leaders.

On Friday, their cars pulled up around the side of the official residence, leaving only a short jaunt to the entrance where chilly journalists lay in wait.

— Walk of flame: Reporters pelted ministers with punishing questions. "Do you still have confidence in the prime minister?" Follow-up: "Why?" Also: "How long do you think this Cabinet will last?" Many walked past without indulging the questioners.

NEW AND OLD — Here's the full list of Cabinet changes.

→ ANITA ANAND adds internal trade to her transport portfolio.

→ GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR replaces Anand as Treasury Board President.

→ DARREN FISHER enters Cabinet as veterans affairs minister and associate defense minister.

→ New minister RACHEL BENDAYAN takes official languages off Petitpas Taylor's plate, and is also associate minister of public safety.

→ Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE picks up the northern affairs portfolio, which is no longer a standalone Cabinet job.

("The North is a unique place, with a unique set of issues and deserves a specific approach to tackle them all," former minister DAN VANDAL said in a farewell statement that didn't name-check the PM. Vandal signed off by saying: "Northerners deserve a federal government that listens to them, understands their issues and meets them where they are as much as any other region in the country.")

→ Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON adds the employment portfolio to his bailiwick, replacing former minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT.

→ ÉLISABETH BRIÈRE enters Cabinet as revenue minister, replacing MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU.

→ TERRY DUGUID, the Liberal national campaign co-chair, enters Cabinet as sport minister, replacing CARLA QUALTROUGH, and Prairies economic development minister, replacing Vandal.

→ NATE ERSKINE-SMITH joins the Cabinet as minister of housing, infrastructure and communities, replacing SEAN FRASER.

→ DAVID MCGUINTY replaces DANIEL LEBLANC as public safety minister.

→ RUBY SAHOTA replaces LeBlanc as minister of democratic institutions, and FILOMENA TASSI as southern Ontario economic development minister.

→ JOANNE THOMPSON takes the seniors portfolio from MacKinnon.

— Because it's 2024: Trudeau maintained gender parity on his front bench. Navigator's CHRIS HALL noted on CPAC that Maritimers now outnumber westerners around that table.

RIDINGS TO WATCH — Politics plays heavily into the whiteboard decisions about who to promote into Cabinet. Here's 338Canada's state of play in ridings held by newbies.

Most are battlegrounds in key regions.

→ Winnipeg South, Manitoba (Duguid): Toss-up LPC/CPC

→ Ottawa South, Ontario (McGuinty): Toss-up LPC/CPC

→ Beaches-East York, Ontario (Erskine-Smith): LPC likely

→ Brampton North, Ontario (Sahota): CPC likely

→ Outremont, Quebec (Bendayan): Toss-up LPC/NDP

→ Sherbrooke, Quebec (Brière): BQ likely

→ Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia (Fisher): LPC leaning

→ St. John's East, Newfoundland and Labrador (Thompson): Toss-up LPC/NDP

MORE MUSICAL CHAIRS — The new front bench will trigger a shakeup of parliamentary secretaries — including some of the more prominent roles. Duguid was parlsec to the prime minister, and Bendayan supported CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

Brière backed up Families Minister JENNA SUDDS.

— New whip: Sahota's elevation to Cabinet opens a vacancy in the chief government whip's office. Former Minister MONA FORTIER, who occupies one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, is likely to take over as whip.

— Foreign interference: McGuinty chaired the headline-making National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians, where Fisher was also a member.

— The farm team: Committee chairs and backbenchers who've expressed recent support for the prime minister's leadership.

You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now.

Where the leaders are

“We have a lot of work to do and that’s what we’re focused on,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday afternoon on his way off the Hill. | AFP via Getty Images

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his schedule.

— Playbook has not seen itineraries for Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH or Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is powering down for the holidays.

MEDIA ROOM

— AARON WHERRY's headline at CBC News: Trudeau shuffles the deck while the nation waits for him to make up his mind.

— The NYT: Why have so many Canadians turned on Trudeau?

— From STEPHANIE LEVITZ, BOB FIFE and MARIEKE WALSH today: Inside the Freeland fallout: How Trudeau’s leadership came under fire.

— And from Bloomberg: Trudeau’s shocking call with Freeland sparked Canada’s political crisis.

— ALTHIA RAJ writes: The calls for JUSTIN TRUDEAU to resign are getting louder. JAGMEET SINGH may have made it easier for him to stay.

— “Trudeau's political instincts were always atrocious,” CHRIS SELLEY writes in the National Post. “Some people are only noticing now.”

— The Toronto Star's SUSAN DELACOURT managed expectations: "Everything we’ve seen this week is the result of a scramble for Plan B."

— Over at National Post, JOHN IVISON sizes up two rivals: The more at sea Trudeau has seemed, the more assured Poilievre has been.

— Security and intelligence expert WESLEY WARK substacked this about DAVID MCGUINTY: "He knows where the skeletons are in the closet of national security, and where the strengths are, including reputational strengths with allies."

— JOHN IBBITSON of the Globe concludes: “Whenever and however the election is called, the Liberals face almost certain defeat.”

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD and SUE ALLAN: Does Trudeau’s shuffle even matter?

In other Pro headlines:

— Trudeau ends week of chaos with a Cabinet shuffle.

— Canada’s first federal youth climate case gets trial date.

— USMCA panel rules against Mexico’s biotech corn restrictions.

— House passes government spending package after Trump, Musk fueled chaos.

— DOE tries to unload $1.8B for carbon removal as Trump looms.

PLAYBOOKERS

Spotted: An airborne CC-150 Polaris, painted in the Government of Canada livery, visible from Rideau Hall shortly before the Cabinet shuffle — timing that caught the attention of your Playbook host. The aircraft descended to 2,200 feet over the city before reversing course. The Department of National Defence confirmed the aircraft was on a training exercise.

BRAD THOMSON, a two-time challenger of DAVID MCGUINTY in Ottawa South under the former Progressive Canadian banner, taking in the shuffle's media circus. Thomson, a fan of McGuinty who wants JUSTIN TRUDEAU to run again, served up punditry: “I really hope Justin runs. He probably will lose. He'll take his lumps and then the Liberals will rebuild, but there is no possible Liberal replacement that could win."

Ministers NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and RECHIE VALDEZ, sitting on the same flight to Toronto.

BOB RAE, in a big red suit.

Movers and shakers: WENDY COCCHIA has been named as the next lieutenant governor of British Columbia.

Media mentions: The Globe’s JOHN IBBITSON is retiring.

NOJOUD AL MALLEES, bid a final farewell to CP.

Noted: The federal chief actuary has released its analysis of what Alberta would receive should it exit the CPP.

— The final edition of the Canada Gazette before Christmas was packed with federal proposals to:

→ Beef up Ottawa's export control list with technologies that have military applications.

→ Make long-awaited changes to the Air Passenger Protection Regulations.

→ Establish the Sarvarjuaq and Qikiqtait marine protected areas.

→ Set accessibility requirements for three areas of IT and communication technology.

→ Crack down on immigration consultants who engage in fraud and misrepresentation.

→ Provide new tools to the regulator of immigration consultants.

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