One of the great unresolved financial policy battles of the last Congress is poised to return in 2025, with a new X factor: President Donald Trump. Republicans came within spitting distance of resolving a long-running intraparty feud over how to restrict U.S. investments in China at the end of last year, but a bipartisan deal on the matter was torpedoed when Trump and billionaire Elon Musk objected at the eleventh hour to a spending package it was set to get attached to. Now, with a GOP trifecta in place and Trump vowing to take a hard line on China, GOP lawmakers are gearing up to revisit the issue, which is a stated priority for House Speaker Mike Johnson and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. “We’re going to finally get it over the finish line,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who has pushed legislation for years that would require U.S. firms to disclose investments in some sectors of the Chinese economy. Lawmakers who have worked on the issue say they are confident legislation on the matter can move this Congress, but several hurdles remain. Trump is now the biggest wild card. It is unclear where he will come down on the debate, which he hasn’t taken a firm position on in the past. But his Treasury Department is gearing up to review the issue, and his arrival is forcing lawmakers back to the drawing board on legislation that has long been a point of friction. GOP China hawks have pushed for a ban on investments in entire sectors of the Chinese economy, but that approach has drawn pushback from the more business-friendly leaders of the House Financial Services Committee, who prefer a narrower solution using sanctions. An executive order on trade issues signed by Trump on his first day in office directs the Treasury and Commerce departments to deliver recommendations by April 1 on steps the administration should take on restricting U.S. capital from flowing to China, including whether a Biden order on the matter should be modified or scrapped. The approach the administration decides to take is expected to play a major role in shaping the direction that lawmakers on Capitol Hill go. “I think you’ll have a broader effort to work between the administration, the House and the Senate to incorporate the most recent executive orders … with what needs to be done legislatively as well,” said Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), who chairs a special House committee focused on China issues. Moolenaar, a leading China hawk, told MM he expects legislation to build on “the framework that’s there” from the bipartisan deal that was crafted at the end of last Congress. Drafting new legislation has the potential to reopen a fraught debate that has long divided Republicans on Capitol Hill. It could also spur a lobbying blitz by financial firms that want to avoid stringent new investment restrictions. They pushed lawmakers at the end of last year not to stray far beyond Biden’s executive order, which went through a comment process. “This is something that does need to be done,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), the chair of a House Financial Services subcommittee on national security issues who supports a sanctions-based approach. “I think there’s a sense of urgency in both [House Financial Services and Foreign Affairs] to get it done. And I think it’s going to have to be collaborative.” It’s MONDAY — Send Jasper your Super Bowl predictions — and Capitol Hill tips — to Jasper at jgoodman@politico.com. As always, you can find Sam at ssutton@politico.com.
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