| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan |
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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. → The centrists are coming! The centrists are coming! → PIERRE POILIEVRE soft-launches a tariff-retaliation plan. → Three things we're watching. Plus, we have a last-minute table for tonight's Trivia Cup opening round. If you're a lobbyist with a team keen to play, drop us a line ASAP . |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
CENTER-ICE LIBERALS — If Canadians are in for a change election, Conservatives have a possibly insurmountable advantage.
PIERRE POILIEVRE has been making his case for a couple of years now by pointing to a deeply unpopular JUSTIN TRUDEAU's nine-plus years of baggage — a cornucopia of ethical lapses, policy failures, gaffes and reversals. — Last-minute pivot: The charge now is that Trudeau took the Liberal party too far left. For some Liberals, change may look like hauling it back to the center. Even before Trudeau announced his plan to resign, Liberal MPs ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER and YVAN BAKER co-authored an op-ed with this basic pitch: "As centrists we have and will continue to advocate for pragmatic policies that will earn the support of a broad coalition of Canadians." Three days after PMJT's career update, the duo shared their ideas in the National Post — an attempt to get ahead of the party's fast-paced pondering about the future as leadership contenders considered bids. They peppered the piece with pro-business rhetoric. For example: "We need the private sector to lead in creating employment and to create a culture where business success is celebrated not scorned." At the time, MARK CARNEY and CHRYSTIA FREELAND weren't officially in the race. But Housefather and Baker were still busy selling them on their pitch. In an interview with Playbook, they acknowledged the possibility they'd end up endorsing opposing leadership candidates. Both have since endorsed Freeland. Baker called her a "catalyst for change" who "agrees that as a party we must move back towards the center." — In the other corner: Liberal MP FRANCESCO SORBARA picked Carney as preferred standard-bearer of a rightward shift: "It is imperative for centrist Liberals, progressives and all Canadians to grasp the seriousness of this moment." Sorbara has for years supported a full program expenditure review, as well as a serious look at regulatory structures and tax policy. — Selling change: The trick for Liberals will be changing their pitch without disavowing their record. Freeland has walked back support of controversial capital gains tax changes she championed and a federal carbon levy she supported for years. But Freeland knows that in an election defined by change, Poilievre is the overwhelming favorite. She's running against DONALD TRUMP as much as the Conservative leader. → Friends in high places: Over the weekend, Freeland showed off support for her bid from leading Putin foe BILL BROWDER. And BILL MAHER, a longtime sparring partner of Freeland on American TV, offered kind words on social media. Still, Freeland tried to position herself as a change agent in an interview aired over the weekend on CBC's “The House.” "I am really happy to be running against the Ottawa establishment," she told CATHERINE CULLEN. "I think we need a change." — Policy incoming: Facing questions as he departed a Toronto campaign event, Carney promised to unveil his own thinking on a carbon pricing policy in the coming days: "You'll see by the end of the week." (Poilievre's team posted the clip online.) — Playing catch-up: Former Cabinet minister SEAMUS O'REGAN laid it bare in his endorsement of Carney. The country wants change, he said. "And if we're being honest with ourselves and each other, that has probably been clear for a little while now." This graph from Abacus Data's most recent data dump shows just how long. — Endorsement tracker: Transport Minister ANITA ANAND, Defense Minister BILL BLAIR, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Housing Minister NATE ERSKINE-SMITH all backed Carney over the weekend. The former central banker has scored support from at least 17 sitting ministers, and about 50 total MPs. Freeland lags behind at five ministers and a couple dozen MPs. Even Liberal MP WAYNE LONG is suggesting he may run again if Carney is elected next Liberal leader. — In related news: MP CHANDRA ARYA said the Liberal party informed him he's out of the running to be its next leader. The party later confirmed that claim. — Tick tock: 41 days till the leadership vote. | | | | Power shifts, razor-thin margins, and a high-stakes agenda. We’ve transformed our coverage—more reporters, more timely insights, and unmatched policy scoops. From leadership offices to committee rooms, caucus meetings, and beyond, our expert reporting keeps you ahead of the decisions that matter. Subscribe to our Inside Congress newsletter today. | | | | | | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Kraków, Poland, where he will meet with Canadian Holocaust survivors of the Auschwitz Birkenau German Nazi Concentration and Extermination Camp. He will later meet with Polish Prime Minister Andrzej Duda and attend a commemoration ceremony marking 80 years since the liberation of Auschwitz.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will be at the National Holocaust Monument in Ottawa’s Memorial Park for a commemoration ceremony at 11 a.m. The event will be livestreamed. Later, Poilievre will headline an evening party fundraiser at Heritage Hall in Kemptville, Ontario. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET meets VIA HFR CEO MARTIN IMBLEAU at 11 a.m. Blanchet visits the Trois-Rivières Coliseum at 1:30 p.m. for a meeting with Trois-Rivières Lions executive VP ALEX COUSINEAU. At 3 p.m., he'll meet Grand Prix de Trois-Rivières general director DOMINIC FUGÈRE. — Playbook has not seen an itinerary for NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will host a 10:30 a.m. press conference in West Block to make "an important announcement regarding the Party’s leadership."
| | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | | 
“If someone throws a punch at me, I’m going to hit him back twice as hard,” says Ontario Premier Doug Ford. | Geoff Robins/AFP via Getty Images | ONTARIO ELECTION — Premier DOUG FORD will call a snap election Wednesday. He says he needs "the largest mandate in Ontario’s history" to fight Trump’s tariffs. Ford sat down in Toronto last week with ALEXANDER BURNS, the head of news at POLITICO, to discuss his Trump strategy. “I’m a street fighter in politics,” Ford said. “If someone throws a punch at me, I’m going to hit him back twice as hard.” Also, Ford is pretty sure that he and Trump would get along. “Absolutely,” he said. “One. Hundred. Percent.” — Burns writes: “For all his apparent kinship with Trump, he is pursuing not appeasement but confrontation. It is a revealing choice and the world should take note. “Standing apart from the servile menagerie of world leaders, billionaires and executives who are seeking Trump’s favor through flattery, Ford is making his own bet — that the American president will respect grit, bluntness and macho theatrics more than pleading gestures of submission.” — Risky strategy: “If Ford is wrong in his assessment of Trump, his peace-through-strength strategy could inadvertently accelerate a trade war that Ford views as irrational,” Burns writes. Ford insists he does not want to carry out any of the threats he’s leveled at Washington. “That’s the last thing I want to do. I want to work with President Trump,” Ford said. He stressed: “There’s no one that loves the U.S. up here in Canada more than I do.” Read more from the interview. — One more thing: Neither here nor there, Ford told Burns that his late brother, ROB FORD, would crush OLIVIA CHOW in a mayoral contest. “I will guarantee this: If he ever came back to Earth, which I know is not possible, he would annihilate the mayor in the next election. Not just a little bit,” the premier said. “I like the mayor, by the way. Two different political stripes, but I really like her. We get along great. But it wouldn’t even be a race, because he’s there for the people.” DEADLINE DAY — Liberals have until 5 p.m. ET to register to vote in the leadership race. BANK RATE — On Wednesday, Governor TIFF MACKLEM will share the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision. TBD: How the Trump factor will influence the call. "We believe that the heavy overhang of trade uncertainty — possible U.S. tariffs — overrides almost all else," Bank of Montreal chief economist DOUGLAS PORTER said in a client note last week that went on to predict a trim, "for risk management purposes." | | COUNTDOWNS | |
Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.
— Sitting days until summer: 49 max. — Calendar days until the foreign interference public inquiry's final report: 1 … The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 2 … Statistics Canada's next inflation data: 22 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Halifax, N.S.: 34 … The House's scheduled return: 56. LEADERSHIP WATCH — Dates to watch in the race to replace JUSTIN TRUDEAU. — Calendar days until the membership registration deadline: 0 … Candidate entry fee final payment deadline: 21 … Voting day: 41. Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us! | | For your radar | | | 
“We need to become more self-reliant," Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in an interview over the weekend. | AFP via Getty Images | POILIEVRE'S PLAN — For the first time, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE explained his approach to countering DONALD TRUMP's potential tariffs. In an interview with CTV News, Poilievre pushed for "dollar-for-dollar" retaliation in the name of free trade. — The ultimate goal: "How do we position the decision for him so that he understands that America can only win if it allows open, unbridled free trade with Canada?" — Anatomy of retaliation: Poilievre outlined the broad strokes of a strategy. "I would target products and services that a) we don't need, b) we can make ourself, and c) that we can buy elsewhere so we can maximize impact on the Americans while minimizing impact on Canadians." — Ax more tax: Poilievre also championed a familiar tool. “I would pass an emergency ‘bring it home’ tax cut — on work, investment, making stuff in Canada, energy, homebuilding — so that we can stimulate more economic growth here,” he said. — Those other barriers: Poilievre added his voice to urgent calls to make it easier to trade between provinces. “We need to become more self-reliant. That means knocking down barriers. More interprovincial free trade,” he said. “We have freer trade with the Americans today than we do with ourselves.” | | Caught our ear | | | 
"There's a range of different areas where Canada could actually contribute to the goals that President Trump campaigned on," Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says. | Hiro Komae/AP Photo | ‘A LITTLE HARDBALL’ — Minister of Energy and Natural Resources JONATHAN WILKINSON is on today’s POLITICO “Energy” pod — an episode taped at the Canadian embassy before Inauguration Day. Our colleagues BEN LEFEBVRE and ZACK COLMAN weighed in with their takeaways from their conversation: — Colman: “He didn't shy away from the need to address climate change through some sort of policy. And that's a difference in what the Trump administration is doing, where they're backing away from addressing climate change. But he says that's just not going to be what happens in Canada. He really thinks that the Canadian government is going to keep driving forward on clean energy innovation and government support for climate change solutions, and that a carbon levy could even be part of that as well.” — Lefebvre: “The biggest thing I took away from this was how seriously our polite neighbors to the north are taking the tariffs game. This was a case of them saying, ‘Well, we are going to try to talk Trump and lawmakers out of slapping tariffs on Canadian goods. But we've also got our own list lined up of what we may be doing to impact the U.S. economy if those tariffs do go into place.’ So I kind of took away from it that, you know, they're playing a little hardball, at least for now, in public, and we'll have to wait until Feb. 2 maybe to see how this turns out.” — On the pod: Wilkinson discusses the future of the U.S.-Canada energy alliance under a second Trump administration, Trump’s tariff threats, areas of potential cooperation, and how Trump 2.0 will influence global climate efforts. Listen here
| | | | New Year. New Washington. New Playbook. With intensified congressional coverage and even faster delivery of policy scoops, POLITICO’s reimagined Playbook Newsletter ensures you’re always ahead of the conversation. Sign up today. | | | | | | | MEDIA ROOM | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will fill a mounting pile of Senate vacancies before he leaves office, Radio-Canada's DANIEL LEBLANC reports. — POLITICO’s GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING reports on ELON MUSK’s virtual appearance at a rally for the far-right Alternative for Germany party on Saturday, “reiterating his support ahead of the country’s Feb. 23 snap election and telling the crowd it’s time to ‘move on’ from ‘past guilt.’” — GUY GIORNO serves up constitutional questions to consider about the next federal election. — The Sun’s LORRIE GOLDSTEIN observes: “Our politicians really do believe voters have the memories of goldfish and are easily manipulated by political propaganda.” — From the Globe’s JASON KIRBY: Why Trump conveniently forgets America’s massive trade surplus in services. — “Power Play” host ANNE MCELVOY asked BILL BROWDER about Trump’s plan for Ukraine. — MARCI SURKES, FRED DELOREY, ALLISON GIFFORD and LAURA DAWSON joined ALTHIA RAJ on the “It’s Political” pod to discuss shifts in the political landscape. | | PROZONE | |
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD.
In other news for Pro readers: — POLITICO Pro Q&A: Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne. — How Trump silenced tech giants on his Paris withdrawal.— Why Trump’s ‘energy emergency’ is on shaky legal ground. — Workers describe the dark mood inside U.S. federal agencies. — Trump fires independent inspectors general in Friday night purge. |
Birthdays: HBD to CBC parliamentary bureau chief CHRIS CARTER, former Conservative Cabinet minister TONY CLEMENT, PMO senior special assistant HARTLEY WITTEN, and Liberal national campaign director ANDREW BEVAN.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: Former Ottawa Mayor LARRY O'BRIEN, musing about the future of Canada: "It may be time to put our pride aside and examine the potential benefits of becoming an American more closely. Let's see how valuable our pride is when we view it from the perspective of rational self-interest. It has to be more than tradition and pride to win the day." Noted: Over the weekend, U.S. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON extended an invitation for Trump to address a joint session of Congress on March 4, the first State of the Union in Trump's second presidency. Nikkei Asia Washington correspondent KEN MORIYASU posted U.S. Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO's first meetings and phone calls with foreign counterparts. MÉLANIE JOLY sat seventh, behind India, Australia, Japan, Philippines, Israel, and the "rightful president” of Venezuela. Movers and shakers: Kingston Mayor BRYAN PATERSON is seeking the Conservative nomination in Kingston and the Islands, Ontario — where he'd take on former Mayor MARK GERRETSEN in the general election. Paterson, a professor at Royal Military College, was granted leave from that position … DEAN WYTHE, a senior adviser at Global Affairs Canada, obtained leave to seek the CPC nomination in Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester. THOMAS SIMPSON is the provincial Liberal candidate in Ottawa Centre. Media mentions: DAVID COCHRANE received the King Charles III Coronation Medal on Friday: “I live and work in Ottawa. But Newfoundland and Labrador will always be home and the place I love the most.” In memoriam: Hereditary chief BILL WILSON died on Friday. “His life was one of leadership and striving to make change…and change he did make,” JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD shared on X of her father. | | ON THE HILL | |
Parliament is scheduled to return March 24.
| | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: On Jan. 24, 1848, LOUIS LAFONTAINE became premier and ROBERT BALDWIN co-premier of the Province of Canada. They led the Reform government.
Props to NOAH CHAFE, GORDON RANDALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BILL WATSON, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, RAY DEL BIANCO, DARREN MAJOR and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Today’s question: “I wrote it for breakfast, recorded it for lunch and we’re putting it out for dinner.” What happened on this date in history? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
