Deal or No Deal

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 28, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey


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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

On POLITICO Canada’s agenda today:

→.The NDP insists the band is not getting back together.

MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE is poised to unveil her final report.

→ Nomination watch.

PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and NDP MP Peter Julian speak to reporters.

NDP MP Peter Julian, show here with leader Jagmeet Singh, tells us the NDP is done supporting the Liberals. | Justin Tang, The Canadian Press

DRIFTING APART — With the Liberal leadership underway, one of many questions for when the House returns — if the House returns — at the end of March, concerns the status of the ongoing dance between New Democrats and the minority government.

Will New Democratic Party Leader JAGMEET SINGH find a new friend in the new Liberal leader and next PM? Or will he make good on his latest promise to bring down the Liberal government at first opportunity?

Playbook looked into the status of pharmacare — the NDP’s political baby — to get a sense of the state of play.

High-stakes moment: The window for Ottawa to usher in the first phase of national pharmacare — free birth control and diabetes medicine to anyone with a health card — is up against the threat of a federal election.

The Pharmacare Act passed in October with C$1.5 billion in the latest budget allocated to the program over five years.

Since health care falls within provincial and territorial jurisdiction, Ottawa must forge a national program from bilateral deals. Once a province signs on, the feds will deliver money to cover the costs of contraception, diabetes medications and supplies.

Now, with opposition parties promising to vote non-confidence as early as March, the program is in jeopardy.

— Plus: The Conservatives, who are currently expected to form the next government, have yet to share their thinking on pharmacare or the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

— No more deals: NDP health critic PETER JULIAN says work to cement deals and get provinces on side can be done right now.

He insists the NDP is done supporting the Liberal government — no matter who ends up at the helm.

— What if?: What if the new leader promises to expand pharmacare beyond free contraceptives and diabetes medications — or to add more money to the pot in the next federal budget?

“No,” Julian said. “Everything is in place, so there’s no excuse. Get it done.”

The party that cried wolf: Even after the New Democrats “ripped up” its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals last September, it continued to side with the Liberals on confidence votes. The party helped pass the government’s “GST holiday” and supplementary estimates, which included new money for the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

— For real now, seriously: Julian points to pharmacare to underline why Singh really means it when he says the party is done with the Liberals.

“[He] has been very clear numerous times about this,” Julian said. “It’s the difference between rhetoric and reality. The rhetoric was, ‘Let’s get all these things done.’ We see a hesitation even with putting pharmacare in place.”

— Let’s make a deal: The office of Health Minister MARK HOLLAND says the government is looking forward to “signing agreements soon.” The minister and Health Canada officials have been in direct contact with every province and territory, Holland’s office said.

British Columbia has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Liberal government that states they will work toward a pharmacare agreement, but it has yet to reach a formal deal.

New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT told Playbook her Liberal government and Ottawa counterparts are “motivated” to move quickly. Holland visited Holt's province in mid-January to discuss details.

“It would be great if we could come to an agreement and get something signed and firmed up before an election,” Holt said on Jan. 15.

 

Power shifts, razor-thin margins, and a high-stakes agenda. We’ve transformed our coverage—more reporters, more timely insights, and unmatched policy scoops. From leadership offices to committee rooms, caucus meetings, and beyond, our expert reporting keeps you ahead of the decisions that matter. Subscribe to our Inside Congress newsletter today.

 
 
Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will travel to Warsaw, Poland. He’ll meet Prime Minister DONALD TUSK and sign the Canada-Poland Nuclear Energy Cooperation Agreement.

— Playbook has no line of sight into itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE or Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Burnaby, B.C., where he will speak to media about the findings in Canada’s foreign interference commission’s report. Later in the day he will meet with B.C. Premier DAVID EBY.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Ottawa and will review documents from the public inquiry into foreign interference. She will be speak to media later in the day.

DULY NOTED

NATO's Dutch Secretary General Mark Rutte (R) speaks flanked by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha during a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Oganization) Foreign Ministers' meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, on December 3, 2024. (Photo by Bob Reijnders / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by BOB REIJNDERS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

"We will continue to engage with our different American counterparts," Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said Monday. She is heading back to Washington this week. | Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is heading to Washington on Wednesday to meet with U.S. Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO. Top priority is to prevent tariffs, she told reporters on Parliament Hill Monday afternoon. “We’re working at it every day now.”

8 a.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will be in Guelph today to make an EV battery announcement with VIC FEDELI, Ontario’s minister of economic development, job creation and trade.

11:45 a.m. Commissioner MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE will release the final report in her inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s electoral processes.

For your radar


HOGUE DAY — Nearly two years after the House of Commons first called for a public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's elections, MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE will unveil her final report — the culmination of more than a year of hearings and deliberation.

— Drop time: 11:45 a.m., following a morning media lock-up.

— The elephants in the room: A pile of reporters, national security experts, opposition politicians and lawyers — oh, so many lawyers — will scan Hogue's report for any reference to unnamed parliamentarians mentioned in a 2024 report as “semi-witting or witting” participants in foreign interference efforts.

→ Fishbowl obsession: Last year, a bombshell report from the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians cited "troubling intelligence" implicating "some" lawmakers in interference.

Party leaders cleared to read the unredacted report shared differing interpretations. The names have never been released.

— What to watch: Playbook turned to WESLEY WARK, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, for his national security expert lens on Hogue's report.

→ Electoral integrity: “The commissioner needs to reaffirm the conclusions from her initial report in May that the federal elections in 2019 and 2021 were targeted by foreign interference but the results were not affected,” Wark wrote to us.

→ Deterrence: Hogue's report is expected to advise on how to handle threats and protect diaspora communities.

Wark hopes for "better intelligence reporting, better sharing of intelligence and a stronger leadership role for the national security and intelligence adviser and the countering foreign interference coordinator at Public Safety Canada."

→ Disinfo watch: "Canada will need a stronger capacity to detect and respond to disinformation efforts by foreign states and their proxies. These efforts often take aim specifically at diaspora communities. This means more resources, more efforts at public education, and a heightened willingness to call out such activities."

NOMINATION WATCH


As a federal election nears, we're tracking the number of nominated candidates in each major party — and noting significant names as they emerge. A full slate is 343 candidates. Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

— Conservative: n/a* (225)

— Liberal: 135 (130)

— NDP: 106 (106)

— Green: 75 (60)

— Bloc Québécois: 2 (2)

→ Worth noting: We didn't hear from the Conservatives this week. We expect more news from the Bloc on Feb. 8. New Democrats expect to hit 114 candidates “within the next few days.” The Liberal Party had this to say: “Well over 100 Canadians have reached out to run for us in the next general election this month.”

 

New Year. New Washington. New Playbook. With intensified congressional coverage and even faster delivery of policy scoops, POLITICO’s reimagined Playbook Newsletter ensures you’re always ahead of the conversation. Sign up today.

 
 
MEDIA ROOM

— The Globe BOB FIFE and STEVE CHASE report that Ottawa is planning pandemic-level relief for workers, businesses if Trump imposes tariffs.

TREVOR TOMBE joined “The Herle Burly” to explore some timely questions: “What the hell is about to happen to the Canadian economy? What’s going to hurt? And how can we help ourselves?”

— Top of POLITICO: Trump administration orders sweeping freeze of federal aid.

— POLITICO’s NAHAL TOOSI, ROBBIE GRAMER and CARMEN PAUN report: The Trump administration’s sudden halt on U.S. foreign aid is causing chaos inside groups ranging from health providers to landmine removers.

JESSICA DAVIS, LEAH WEST and STEPHANIE CARVIN launched "Secure Line," a podcast on security and intelligence in Canada. Inaugural guests: JUSTIN LING and THOMAS JUNEAU.

— Liberal leadership candidate KARINA GOULD is on CBC’s Front Burner pod this morning.

— The Star’s MARK RAMZY tells the story of JONATHAN PEDNEAULT’s renewed bid to co-lead the Green Party.  

— On his latest Substack post, IAN BRODIE plays out a scenario in which PIERRE POILIEVRE "could start his path to greatness at the G7 in June."

— The Logic's CATHERINE MCINTYRE, LAURA OSMAN and MURAD HEMMADI dig beneath the surface: Inside Canadian tech’s not-so-quiet shift to the right.

PROZONE


For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD.

From JOSEPH BAMBRIDGE in London: Trump’s war on tech taxes is a big problem for Britain and its digital services tax.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Trump’s beef with the World Health Organization is personal.

How a Chinese startup could rock Trump's stock market.

Fact-checkers under fire as Big Tech pulls back.

UK climate chief Ed Miliband is fighting a losing battle.

Trump boosts political control over top-tier federal workers.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: Bonne fête to Bloc Québécois MP STÉPHANE BERGERON (60!) and HBD to former Alberta MLA DAVE QUEST.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Journo CHRIS NARDI, stocked up on Deep’n Delicious and ready for the release of the final report from the foreign interference commission.

Movers and shakers: Bloc Québécois MP KRISTINA MICHAUD, who is expecting her first child, announced she wouldn't run in the next campaign.

MIKE MCNAIR is leaving the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. For now, the former policy director to JUSTIN TRUDEAU will “operate as a free agent with a private advisory practice until I decide what’s next.”

Media mentions: ABIGAIL BIMMAN is joining CTV News' Ottawa bureau.

TRIVIA

TRIVIA CUP — We kicked off the Second Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup at the Métropolitain on Monday night. First up: lobbyists.

POLITICO contributor and 338Canada polling analyst PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER joined us as guest quizmaster, serving up five election-focused stumpers.

The top four teams advanced to the championship round on June 2: #TEAMVANTAGE (25 points out of 30), TEAM LIMITED HOSPITALITY (22), CRESTVIEW STRATEGY (22) and CLERKS OF THE TRIVY COUNCIL (21).

— Next up: Diplomat night on Feb. 10.

Monday’s answer: JOHN LENNON recorded “Instant Karma.”

Props to SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, PATRICK DION, RAY DEL BIANCO, DANIEL BOSLEY, GREG MACEACHERN, LAURA JARVIS, DARRYL DAMUDE,ROBERT MCDOUGALL, NOEL KEVIN BREEN, MALCOLM MCKAY, MARCEL MARCOTTE and BILL WATSON. 

Today’s question: Which U.S. president once said Canada would fall like “easy prey.”

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Wednesday's Playbook will be written by NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

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Mike Blanchfield @ @mblanchfield

Mickey Djuric @MickeyDjuric

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