Help wanted

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 09, 2025 View in browser
 
POLITICO Ottawa Playbook Newsletter Header

By Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey


Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. 

In today's edition, some timely advice:

→ A chatty Liberal caucus holds court in West Block.

→ Liberal leadership rules are just around the corner, they promise.

→ Canada's totally hypothetical impact on the U.S. electoral map.

DRIVING THE DAY


HOLDING COURT — It felt unprecedented. Cabinet ministers lined up in the hallway outside their national caucus room Wednesday, waiting for TV cameras to turn on so they could take questions from journalists.

Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE joined the queue. Any minister vying for Liberal leadership will need to introduce themselves to Canadians. They won't have much time. They're only days away from launching campaigns. Some are waiting for official race rules before making a final call.

Others are considering a much simpler calculation based on electoral math. Liberals appear headed for decimation in the next election. Who really wants to lead a party to defeat?

Vibe shift: With Trudeau’s resignation, a weight seems to have lifted off the Liberal caucus. MPs appeared more relaxed, jovial — and way chattier. The caucus appears to have moved on from Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, with many MPs focusing instead on the next few months. Few used a national media platform to thank the PM for his service.

“We’re always politicking,” said Liberal MP MARCUS POWLOWSKI, when Playbook asked how many colleagues were scheming about preferred candidates behind closed doors in a meeting that lasted almost five hours. Liberal Party President SACHIT MEHRA and National Director AZAM ISHMAEL were in the room.

When the doors did briefly open, journalists caught a glimpse of the inside: MPs hived off into groups, chatting away out of earshot from the press pack. Other MPs were whispering with each other in halls, or ducking into meeting rooms nearby.

Journalists’ white whale: Former deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, who didn't indulge reporters hounding her for a quote.

Notable timestamp: The PM was in the meeting for just 48 minutes before he left for a Flight PS752 commemoration event in Richmond Hill, Ontario.

Shots fired: Employment Minister STEVEN MACKINNON, who’s considering a leadership bid, took a subtle shot at another leadership hopeful, former B.C. Premier CHRISTY CLARK, by saying the next leader needs to be fluent in French. The jury is out on just how much Clark has improved her second-language fluency.

Some ministers clarified their intentions Wednesday.

Who’s out: Finance Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC is remaining focused on Canada-U.S. relations, a move several political observers have described as putting country over personal ambition. Some MPs, including CHARLES SOUSA and MARK GERRETSEN, want him to reconsider.

Immigration Minister MARC MILLER, Health Minister MARK HOLLAND, Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT all ruled out bids. 

— Who’s considering a run?

Champagne: “We need an ambitious Canada. We need a confident Canada. We need to present a vision of a country that can win in the 21st century, an economic vision, a vision of hope. And certainly that’s something that I’ve been thinking about for a long time.”

MacKinnon: “It's important that we have a candidate who understands the whole country, who values all the regions of Canada and who is able to communicate their ideas in every region of Canada. I think it's very important right now and in the future that we be listening much more than speaking.”

Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, who is considering her decision's impact on the government's Canada-U.S. work. “We have to be extremely ready because the threat of tariffs is real.”

Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, and former Bank of Canada Governor MARK CARNEY.

Rumored to run, but staying quiet: Freeland, Clark, Transport Minister ANITA ANAND and Government House Leader KARINA GOULD.

FINAL COUNTDOWN —  Don't expect the swirling uncertainty around the rules and timelines for a hasty Liberal leadership race to linger much longer.

CBC News reports the party's national board of directors will meet tonight to hash it out. Radio-Canada sources said the prime minister will be in the room.

The party constitution tasks the board with establishing two committees to oversee a contest expected to wrap in time for the return of Parliament in March.

— Money matters: The leadership expenses committee sets the entry fee and candidate spending limits, as well as procedures to enforce those rules.

In 2013, candidates paid a C$75,000 entry fee and faced a spending limit of C$950,000. They were not allowed to accumulate more than C$75,000 in debt.

— Voting rules: The leadership vote committee organizes and carries out the vote, including registration procedures and timelines.

→ A question on our minds: Will the party organize one or more debates?

— The people: Both committees require two co-chairs: one man and one woman, one fluent in English and one fluent in French. A pair of MPs also sit on both, alongside at least two board members. The committees can also tap additional board members, with an eye to gender parity and respect for both official languages.

→ The buffet of options: Scroll through the list of national board members.

The party treasurer, JAYSON KWASNIK, sits on the expenses committee. Party president SACHIT MEHRA sits on the vote committee.

— The party line: Liberal spokesperson PARKER LUND held his cards close to his chest on Wednesday.

The national board is "having formal and informal meetings all this week to discuss the next steps of a leadership race," he said in a statement. "As you would expect, the establishment of the rules for the upcoming leadership race will take some time. We will be in touch when there is more to share."

— Foreign interference: The B.C. caucus raised concerns Wednesday about attempted foreign interference into the contest.

As it stands, any registered Liberal who is at least 14 years of age and "ordinarily resides in Canada" can cast a vote as long as they signed up 41 days before the leadership vote.

The Hogue Commission into foreign interference has raised some concern about vulnerabilities in party processes, as has the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

Still, the party isn't budging on its rules.

"Our open and inclusive process ensures we hear from more people in the communities we engage with and helps foster civic engagement with those who may one day have the privilege to vote in a federal election," Lund wrote.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Washington to attend the funeral of the late U.S. President JIMMY CARTER.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not released a public itinerary.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events.

DULY NOTED


The House returns March 24.

TRUMPQUAKE

51ST STATE — Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Canadians were keen on giving up their 157-year-old national project in favor of Team Uncle Sam.

Our Washington colleague JONATHAN LAI gamed out how that might change the face of U.S. Congress. Y'know, just in case.

A map shows the political leaning of states in a presidential election if Canada was admitted to the United States as the 51st state.

— The Senate is easiest: Canada would get two senators, and given its overall liberal politics there’s little question they’d be Democrats. That would shrink Republicans’ margin from the current Congress slightly: There would be 53 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate. Republicans would be able to afford two defections, with Vice President-elect JD VANCE breaking a 51-51 tie.

— The House is more complicated (and fun). Keeping the chamber at 435 members, reapportionment would give Canada 45 seats. That’d be just one fewer than California, which would have 46 seats.

→ State swings: Thirty-one states would lose seats to Canada, including California (6), Texas (4), Florida (3), New York (2), Illinois (2), Pennsylvania (2), North Carolina (2).

That would almost certainly boost Democrats’ numbers in the House, but it’s impossible to know to what extent, because of redistricting. A blue state can lose a red seat and vice versa, and some of Canada’s 45 districts would be Republican. Aggressive gerrymandering by either party could significantly shift the outcomes.

A map shows the number of House seats states could lose if Canada was admitted to the United States as the 51st state.


— Race for the White House: With Canada’s 47 electoral votes (45 House seats + 2 senators), Democrats would enter an election with 253 seats, Republicans would have 202, and there’d be 85 up for grabs.

The Democratic nominee would need just 18 electoral votes to get to 271 and clinch a majority of what are now 540 votes in the Electoral College. That would require a minimum of just two battlegrounds, while Republicans would need to win at least five.

— No change: That’s a daunting disadvantage for Republicans, but not an insurmountable one. Last November, Trump would still have won that map.

— In related reading: From POLITICO's MIKE BLANCHFIELD: “Let’s stop wasting time,” DOUG FORD says of Trump taunts.

MEDIA ROOM

The flag-draped casket of former President Jimmy Carter lies in state at the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Washington. (Andrew Harnik/Pool via AP)

The flag-draped casket of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter rests in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. | AP

JOHN HARRIS, global editor-in-chief of POLITICO writes: “The great theme of Jimmy Carter’s political life — in both the winning campaign of 1976 and the losing campaign of 1980 — was how believers in activist government must reckon with an electorate filled with mistrust of politics and establishment institutions of all sorts.”

— From The New York Times: More than 100,000 flee as fires race unchecked in L.A.

KATIE SIMPSON of CBC News reports that steel, plastics, Florida orange juice on Canada's list of potential retaliatory tariffs against U.S.

— From the Globe’s STEVEN CHASE this morning: Beijing says it’s willing to deepen economic ties with Canada as Trump brings trade chaos.

— POLITICO’s KARL MATHIESEN and GIOVANNA COI report on the method in Trump’s Greenland madness.

— From our colleagues in Europe: 5 things to watch during Musk’s date with Germany’s far-right chief
.
— Toronto Star's RAISA PATEL reports on a poll that suggests  Trudeau’s departure hasn’t boosted Liberals’ electoral prospects.

— Angus Reid Institute President SHACHI KURL analyzed "How Trump brought down Canada’s ‘Governor’ Trudeau."

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter via SUE ALLAN: If Canada were a state, it would look like this.

 In other news for Pro readers: 

Wall Street’s climate journey is getting messier.

Meta invites climate disinformation by tossing fact-checkers.

EU pushes back on Meta’s censorship claims.

ANWR oil lease sale yields no bids.

It will be a busy year for carbon markets. Here’s what to expect.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Conservative MP SHUV MAJUMDAR, Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada YULIYA KOVALIV (40!), communications consultant ERIN GEE, Alberta Deputy Premier MIKE ELLIS and former B.C. MLA BARRY PENNER.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way .

Spotted: Immigration Minister MARC MILLER, sneaking into the Queen's model Parliament in the House chamber on the sidelines of the Liberal caucus meeting … The Liberal Party, jokingly annexing an island in Lake Superior … A CL-415 SuperScooper water bomber from Quebec, snuffing out wildfires in southern California (follow its volatile flight path here) … ELON MUSK, trolling PM Trudeau.

Trudeau, scratched from the Liberal Party's online list of nominated candidates.

Noted: Former Privy Council clerk MICHAEL WERNICK alerted his LinkedIn followers to the growing list of Senate vacancies, which will reach 10 next month — and games out the government's list of flawed options.

NOAH SHACK, interim president of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, urged Public Safety Minister DAVID MCGUINTY to list Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist entity ahead of a controversial conference planned later this month.

Movers and shakers: DEIRDRA TINDALE joined Crestview as VP: "With elections on the horizon in both Canada and Australia, I will be keeping an eye on both political landscapes to help clients navigate the likely period of transition in both jurisdictions."

JOHN MORRIS, a former Hill staffer, launched his own Manitoba-based consultancy: Remedy Government Relations.

JESS MILTON is the next executive director of the Governor General’s Performing Arts Awards Foundation.

Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON announced four reappointments to the Canada Industrial Relations Board: Chair GINETTE BRAZEAU (until June 25), vice chair ALLISON SMITH (until June 20), vice chair ANNIE G. BERTHIAUME (until June 20) and vice chair JENNIFER WEBSTER (until Oct. 14, 2029).

Media mentions: CATHERINE MORRISON, who worked the public service beat for the Ottawa Citizen, is moving to CPISAAC PHAN NAY is The Tyee's newest labor reporter.

TRIVIA


Wednesday’s answer: Former Prime Minister WILLIAM LYON MACKENZIE KING.

Props to FERNANDO MELO, MALCOLM MCKAY, MARC SHAW, DAN MCCARTHY, JOHN ALHO, COLIN MCKONE, NOEL BREEN, GORDON RANDALL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DOUG SWEET, CAMERON RYAN, MARC LEBLANC, SYDNEY LINHOLM, MACKENZIE KING, LAURA JARVIS, JOSEPH CRESSATTI, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, CHRISTOPHER WALTERS, PATRICK DION, JOHN DILLON, SEAN MOORE, PAUL PARK, ANTHONY VALENTI, DUANE BRATT, MARCEL MARCOTTE, CHRIS RANDS, ERIC BROUSSEAU, GANGA WIGNARAJAH and MARK AGNEW.

Props + 1 to PATRICK DION, HELEN DARBY and RALPH LEVENSTEIN for landing Tuesday’s question.

Today’s question: In what year did the Continental Congress write a letter to Quebec to urge Canadians to join the American Revolution?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Advertise in our Playbook. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Mike Blanchfield @ @mblanchfield

Mickey Djuric @MickeyDjuric

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://login.politico.com/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to salenamartine360.news1@blogger.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service

Post a Comment

Previous Post Next Post