Fife and Walsh reported late Sunday that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is expected to resign before a scheduled national caucus meeting set for Wednesday.
Three unnamed sources told the Globe they "don’t know definitely when" he will "announce his plans to leave," but they "expect it will happen" before that midweek gathering.
That would be a stunning development following weeks of turmoil — but hardly a surprise.
Your Playbook team contacted a spray of senior officials last night but has yet to verify the reports.
— Countdowns: T-minus 14 days until DONALD TRUMP's inauguration.
— The sound of silence: Trudeau hasn't said a word in public about his future since Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND's stunning resignation last month.
The PM canceled every year-end interview — even a chummy annual sitdown with pal TERRY DIMONTE. Only MARK CRITCH of "This Hour Has 22 Minutes" scored a few minutes with PMJT (recorded in Montreal before Freeland's resignation).
— Choose your own adventure: The Liberal constitution will determine the party's next steps — and the next prime minister. Party procedure nerds are currently gearing up for tussles over the proper path forward.
Some want the caucus to pick a successor. Others passionately oppose that concept.
Normal rules call for a months-long contest that allows candidates time to gather signatures and sign up new members. One section to watch: 44(i), which grants the party's national board flexibility to change the date of a leadership vote if "political circumstances require."
— Elephant in the room: Brace for concerns about foreign interference in any race to be the next PM — a frequent topic of conversation during Hogue Commission hearings.
→ Save the dates: The House public accounts committee meets Tuesday, where Conservatives are hoping to start turning the gears on an expedited non-confidence motion.
The House of Commons is scheduled to return on Jan. 27. (Fun fact: We're launching the Second Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cupat the Métropolitain that evening. Stay tuned for details.)
— A new low: Trudeau leads his party into 2025 with its worst polling since he was a backbench MP. 338Canada's latest projection pegs the Conservative seat count at a whopping 236, miles ahead of the Bloc Québécois (45) and the Liberals (35).
Trudeau also has little hope of forcing through what's left of his legislative agenda. And his caucus spent the holidays blaring out loud signals of dissent.
No time for idle thoughts or restless murmurs. The jockeying has begun. Liberals everywhere are thinking about their next leader. Buckle up.
All the names tucked into news copy boilerplate are floating around with new life: CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MÉLANIE JOLY, ANITA ANAND, DOMINIC LEBLANC, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. Add JONATHAN WILKINSON, too.
It's unclear how many of those would-be contenders actually want the job at this juncture.
— The westerner:CHRISTY CLARK is making noise. The former B.C. premier recently knocked doors for a pair of Liberallongshots: MADISON FLEISCHER's ill-fated campaign in Cloverdale-Langley City, and BRUCE FANJOY's possibly quixotic run against PIERRE POILIEVRE in Carleton.
— The forever-maybe candidate: MARK CARNEY's tiptoe into elected politics stretches into a new year. A source familiar with Carney's thinking says the former central banker is "actively considering" a run for leadership.
The source confirmed that Carney has recently been on the horn with "dozens" of Liberal MPs, a flurry of interest powered by Carney's Boxing Day retort to DONALD TRUMP.
Carney appears to be distancing himself from the current gang in government. A widely read Globe op-ed on New Year's resolutions made no mention of the Liberals, and curiously omitted his role as a party economic growth adviser.
If Carney does jump into the eventual race, the source was confident a team of seasoned organizers could launch a competitive ground game.
— Take your marks: National Newswatch offered top weekend billing to Spark Advocacy's BRUCE ANDERSON, whose most recent survey says Freeland and Carney stand out among Liberal voters.
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is scheduled to participate virtually in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations.
Playbook has not seen itineraries for any other party leaders.
COUNTDOWNS
Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.
Sitting days until summer: 69, max.
Calendar days untilDONALD TRUMP's inauguration: 14 … Statistics Canada's next inflation data: 15 … The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 23 … The World Economic Forum annual meeting: 14 … The House's scheduled return: 21 … The foreign interference public inquiry's final report deadline: 25 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Halifax, N.S.: 55.
Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us!
NOMINATION WATCH
As a federal election nears, we're tracking the number of nominated candidates in each major party — and noting significant names as they emerge. (Note: Playbook hasn't received data from the Bloc Québécois.)
— Conservative: 169
— Liberal: 131
— NDP: 81
— Green: 36
Caught our ear
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre on the Hill, just before the holidays. | AFP via Getty Images
Then there was Immigration Minister MARC MILLER, who relishes any chance at a colorful outburst on the topic of Poilievre. "Not the biggest surprise in the world to see these two greasy walruses promote each other’s ego," he posted on X. "Is this where we’re headed?"
Poilievre's detractors observed in the interview a politician who confirmed their worst beliefs. Elsewhere on X, ELON MUSKliked what he saw.
— Long reach: Poilievre's boosters boasted about the millions of views the interview racked up on Peterson's X account: 42.3 million as of this morning.
— Post-slogan Poilievre: Trudeau often talks up the memorable “West Wing” episode in which President JED BARTLET calls out his Republican opponent's simple slogans.
"What are the next 10 words?" Bartlet demands during a dramatic presidential debate. In an interview with Village Media last October, Trudeau reiterated his skepticism that Poilievre offered more than catchphrases.
The Conservative leader moved beyond his typical talking points during a wide-ranging interview that ran more than 90 minutes.
→ Day One plans: Asked for his immediate priorities following a campaign, Poilievre mentioned cutting the federal carbon levy, building more homes and reforming criminal justice.
He described his "ax the tax" promise as “iconic” and an "epic commitment." Our opening bet for the first bill after a Conservative victory: An Act to Axe the Carbon Tax.
Poilievre also said he'll cutt the sales tax on new homes under C$1 million and "incentivize" municipalities to unlock aggressive homebuilding.
"That has to happen immediately for people to notice any difference in the cost of housing by the time I get through my fourth year," he told Peterson.
Poilievre also promised "rapid introduction of the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history," which he said would mean keeping more criminals behind bars.
→ The team:Peterson asked who would "be key in your administration." Poilievre named familiar faces rather than backroomers: ANDREW SCHEER, a former party leader and longtime friend; LESLYN LEWIS, a former leadership contender; JAMIL JIVANI, a rookie MP who is good buddies with U.S. Vice President-elect JD VANCE; and MELISSA LANTSMAN, a deputy party leader who cut her teeth as a Hill staffer.
→ Fave economist: Poilievre seems to enjoy sparring with economists he doesn't like, but he name-checked National Bank chief economist and strategist STÉFANE MARION — the co-author of a paper last February that claimed LNG exports to India could dramatically reduce global emissions.
— In The Tyee, JARED WESLEY offers tips to Team Canada: formalize fed-prov talks and gather more frequently, allow Ottawa to lead with meaningful input from provinces, and keep partisanship out of it.
— Former U.S. President JIMMY CARTER will lay in state in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol from Tuesday through Thursday morning. POLITICO’s KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS has details.
PROZONE
Over the weekend, House Speaker Mike Johnson highlighted his and President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to pass one “big, beautiful” budget reconciliation package through Congress. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO
Noted: Conservative MP LUC BERTHOLD revealed a prostate cancer diagnosis. Berthold isn't resigning, and intends to run in the next election.
Spotted: Former judge GLORIA EPSTEIN, listed among the donors at a Toronto CPC fundraiser on Dec. 17. Power Corp.'s R.JEFFREY ORR and PAUL DESMARAIS, on the list of attendees for a Dec. 12 event in Hudson, Quebec.
— In the 2024 Public Accounts: The global summits PM Trudeau decided against attending. Examples: October's Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Samoa (costs incurred in advance planning: C$20,985); October 2023's Cairo Peace Summit (C$3,400 for planning).
Congrats:ELLIOTT LOCKINGTON and JENNIFER KUSS, a pair of ministerial chiefs of staff who met in 2012 and started dating in 2013, recently agreed to tie the knot.
Movers and shakers: DAVID PIERCE joins the Canadian Chamber of Commerce today as vice president of government relations. Pierce spent about nine years as a parliamentary affairs staffer to Conservative ministers.
JAMES O'REILLY starts a seven-year term as Senate ethics officer — an appointment formalized by order-in-council just before the holidays.
The Public Service Commission granted two employees permission to seek federal nominations: Transport Canada's ALI BAHMAN in Vaughan-Woodbridge, Ontario; and Fisheries and Oceans' SCOTT COMEAU in Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish, Nova Scotia.
Media mentions: SOPHIA CAI, a rising force on the campaign trail for Axios in 2024, is joining POLITICO’s White House team as a West Wing Playbook author.
ON THE HILL
Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.
TRIVIA
Dec. 21 answer: LAWRENCE MACAULAY is now second in Cabinet's order of precedence. He was first elected to the House in 1988.
Props to JOHN ECKER, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOANNA PLATER, PATRICK DION, GUY GALLANT, BLAKE JOHNSTON, BRENNAN GOREHAM, MARCEL MARCOTTE and CHRIS RANDS.
Dec. 20 answer: AMY CARTER read “Charlie and the Great Glass Elevator” at her table during a state dinner held in honor of PIERRE TRUDEAU.
Props to SCOTT YOUNG, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LISA HALEY, ELIZABETH BURN, PAUL PARK, GREG MACEACHERN, KEVIN BOSCH, STEVE PRESANT, LAURE HOURDEBAIGT, CHRIS MCCLUSKEY and MARCEL MARCOTTE.
Today’s question: Name Canada’s first female mayor. Hint: She was elected on this date in 1936.
