| | | | |  | | By Ankush Khardori | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | NEWS FROM THE HOME TEAM — SOPHIA CAI, a rising force on the campaign trail for Axios in 2024, is joining POLITICO's White House team as a West Wing Playbook author. From the announcement: “Sophia's desire to write the newsletter's next chapter shone through as we talked with her. As a national political reporter covering the White House, [DONALD] TRUMP and the 2024 Republican field over the past two years, Sophia did just the type of lively and granular political reporting that makes West Wing Playbook hum, with exclusive reporting on how Trump’s team was caught off guard when [JOE] BIDEN dropped out of the presidential race, Trump’s interest in Gov. DOUG BURGUM as a running mate and Trump’s pen pals.” Sign up for West Wing Playbook CONGRESS VS. SNOWMAGEDDON — Tomorrow, Congress is scheduled to formally certify Trump’s victory. But before that happens, a potentially significant snowstorm (likely 6-10 inches, per the Capital Weather Gang) is due to wallop Washington starting tonight. The threat that some lawmakers could be unable to get to the Capitol (or stuck outside of DC altogether) is sparking grumbling from at least one Republican — Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) said many members left town despite instructions to stay. But you can expect the joint session to carry on as scheduled, our Jordain Carney writes in: The date of the joint session is written into statute (the Electoral Count Act), and Congress would need to pass a law to change it. This thing is happening, blizzard or not.
|  Insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol. | Julio Cortez/AP | THE CALM AMIDST THE STORM — Tomorrow, four years ago to the day, two things happened that would become inextricably and historically intertwined: (1) the siege of the U.S. Capitol at the hands of Trump supporters as Congress gathered to certify his loss in the 2020 election, and (2) the news, announced just hours earlier, that then-President-elect Biden had tapped MERRICK GARLAND to be his attorney general. No one really expects a replay tomorrow of the chaos that unfolded on Jan. 6, 2021. “If all goes as expected," Kyle Cheney writes this morning, “by late Monday afternoon, Trump’s victory will be certified in a ceremony overseen by his vanquished rival, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS.” The simplest and most important reason for the country’s expected return to a peaceful transfer of presidential power is that Trump actually won this presidential election, unlike the last one. As a result, he and his Republican allies have not mounted a public campaign of lies in an effort to mislead his supporters into thinking that he won, and they haven’t lobbied Republican elected officials to try to get them to throw the election to him anyway, as they did after the 2020 election. (Oh, there will also be much more security tomorrow, too.) But even if tomorrow’s congressional certification goes off without a hitch, there is no question that the events on Jan. 6 four years ago — and the legal system’s response to them — will continue to loom large in American history and politics, and that they will continue to shape our perception and understanding of some major political figures. That will continue even after Trump reenters office, as two other new stories out this morning demonstrate — particularly if he follows through on his repeated promises to pardon a wide swathe of defendants convicted for their participation in the riot that day.
- The look back: “Four years later, the vivid memories of the attack on the Capitol may have faded in the minds of many Americans,” per WaPo’s Joe Heim and Olivia George. “But for those caught in the direct wake of Jan. 6, it remains a day marked by both fear and heroism, by despair for the country as well as determination that the attack not define it.”
- The look forward: “[P]olitical reality has already tanked morale inside the Justice Department division that handles these cases,” writes CNN’s Marshall Cohen, “and is hampering efforts to secure guilty pleas in about 300 pending cases, as defendants balk at negotiations.”
Despite all this, the legal legacy and the fallout from Jan. 6 are far from settled. The record has been extensive, complex — and decidedly mixed. But it is also not over, and the events will continue to shape American political life for years to come. The prosecutions of the rioters: It’s easy to gloss over the numbers, but they are considerable. According to recent DOJ figures, prosecutors charged more than 1,500 people with crimes stemming from the attack on the Capitol. Nearly 1,000 defendants have pleaded guilty, including more than 300 defendants who pleaded guilty to felonies. The government also notched major trial victories against members of far-right militia groups. Trump has been cagey about the number of people he will pardon and how he will choose them, but his approach to the question could help to shape early public perceptions of his second term.Large numbers of Americans — around two-thirds — have told pollsters that they oppose pardons for Jan. 6 convicts. The prosecution of Trump: Needless to say, that one did not work out so well for the Justice Department, but the political and legal ramifications are hard to understate. The question of whether Garland and the Justice Department waited too long to pursue Trump for his alleged criminal misconduct has loomed large in legal circles since the election results, prompting two related questions among political and legal observers that will persist for years — if not generations — to come: (1) Did Biden pick the wrong attorney general at a crucial and momentous moment in American history? (2) Has the failed effort to prosecute Trump irretrievably tainted the legacy and standing of Garland himself, once regarded as something of a political martyr on the left after his appointment to the Supreme Court was blocked by Senate Republicans in 2016? The Trump immunity ruling: The Supreme Court’s ruling granting Trump partial criminal immunity in the DOJ’s election subversion case generated a political firestorm over the summer and provided a considerable boost to Trump’s reelection bid, but it may also crucially help to shape Trump’s second term. The court’s ruling immunized Trump (and other presidents) for so-called “official acts,” and knocked out a whole part of the DOJ’s case concerning Trump’s alleged effort to use the Justice Department to remain in power. The Supreme Court’s ruling will make it easier for Trump to work with his appointees — both in the Justice Department and in other executive branch agencies — without having to worry about whether he is actually breaking the law. The ruling also seems to have contributed to the Supreme Court’s historically low public approval rating, as well as a broader and more disturbing collapse in Americans’ confidence in our court systems. It remains to be seen whether those numbers will rebound. Trump’s approach to the Justice Department: Trump’s interest in rewriting the history of Jan. 6 is also likely to shape the Justice Department in his second term — and not just his decision to appoint staunch loyalists like PAM BONDI and KASH PATEL to lead the DOJ and the FBI, respectively, or the possibility that they will investigate and potentially prosecute people associated with the Jan. 6 select committee and the Trump prosecutions. Trump’s nominee to helm the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C. will also be a crucial pick — for handling the remnants of the DOJ’s Jan. 6 criminal investigation, for potential prosecutions in the future of Trump’s perceived enemies, and for the staffing of the office itself, which is one of the largest in the nation. Trump supporters have claimed that the office was overly aggressive in its charging strategy, and they have argued that there needs to be turnover in the office, particularly at the management level and potentially including firings. All of which is to say that Trump — and the country — will probably not see the end of the legal legacy of Jan. 6 anytime soon, even if Trump follows through on his pardons. As the old saying goes, you may be through with the past, but the past may not be through with you. Related read: “‘A Day of Love’: How Trump Inverted the Violent History of Jan. 6,” by NYT’s Dan Barry and Alan Feuer Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line at akhardori@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to make housing more available.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy. Addressing housing availability through tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unlock supply, and solve a national crisis. | | | COMING ATTRACTIONS — “President JOE BIDEN plans to deliver two major speeches before leaving office as part of an effort to outline what he sees as key parts of his legacy,” NBC’s Carol Lee and Kristen Welker report. Speech No. 1 will focus on foreign policy, while Speech No. 2 will be his farewell address. SUNDAY BEST … — Senate Majority Leader JOHN THUNE on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” on working with a fractured GOP caucus: “I think when it comes to the big issues — securing the border, rebuilding the military, strengthening the economy, you know, generating energy dominance for this country — those are all things on which we agree. … We'll disagree on the margins and the process and all that sort of thing, but when it comes to the things we need to get done for the American people, that we think move the country in the right direction, those are all things I think we agree on.” On his relationship with Trump, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “We are – it’s evolving, and we have a relationship I think where we understand what each other wants to accomplish. … [T]here is an alignment of incentives. We want to get to the same destination. … I want to accomplish the same things that he does.” — DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS on the New Orleans attack, on ABC’s “This Week”: The assailant who perpetrated the terrorist attack in New Orleans was born in the United States, raised in the United States and served in our armed forces. It is not an issue of the border.” — Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) on how the Trump administration should handle terror threats, on ABC’s “This Week”: “You really have two types of threats. One is operational, the other one is inspired attacks radicalized over the internet. They're both equally lethal, and they need to be focused on to stop it. There are usually warning signs, though, you know, in these cases. I don't really see a whole lot of warning signs, at least so far, other than right before the attacks, we have to pay attention to the social media and connect the dots before these events happen.” — Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER on the New Orleans attack, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “[W]e need to be very, very vigilant. And so, I sent a letter yesterday to John Thune suggesting we have an all-senators briefing this week on the preparations for the big events that are coming up, and for the ability to ask questions of our law enforcement. I believe they are on top of this, but having an all-senators hearing, giving us a chance to answer questions and [for] them to reply, is a good thing.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “I Was Wrong About the 2024 Election. Here’s Why,” by James Carville for the NYT
- “Trump’s World of Peril — and Opportunity,” by Matthew Kaminski for POLITICO Mag
- “Twenty-five years in 2,500 words,” by Matthew Yglesias for Slow Boring
- “We, The Lemmings,” by Ron Fournier for Convulsions
- “The Blaming of Joe Biden,” by Patti Davis for the NYT
- “The strategist in the hurricane,” by David Ignatius for WaPo
- “One Possible Explanation for Justice Merchan’s Last-Second Decision to Sentence Trump,” by Rick Hasen and Jeremy Stahl for Slate
- “I Want Your Attention. I Need Your Attention. Here Is How I Mastered My Own,” by Chris Hayes for the NYT
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   The pathway to more housing availability runs through the tax code. See our blueprint to unlock supply. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden will sign the Social Security Fairness Act into law at 4 p.m. He’ll speak at a reception for new Democratic members of Congress at 7 p.m., with first lady JILL BIDEN attending. Harris has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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President Biden overrode the advice of numerous aides to block the sale of U.S. Steel on national security grounds. | Akio Kon/Bloomberg via Getty Images | 1. STOP THE STEEL: In blocking Japan’s Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel on national security grounds, President Biden “overrode the advice of numerous top aides,” WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima, Jeff Stein and David Lynch report. And what a formidable list of aides and officials it was.
- Among those who “argued against or expressed reservations about the position Biden ultimately took” were Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL, Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL, deputy national security adviser JONATHAN FINER, and chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers JARED BERNSTEIN.
- On the other side, supporting Biden’s position, were U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI, presidential counselor STEVE RICHETTI, deputy chief of staff BRUCE REED, senior adviser MIKE DONILON and Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM.
What drove Biden’s decision: “Biden’s instincts all along were to side with the union, two U.S. officials said. ‘My hunch is this is just where his heart was,’ said one. Even after the election, part of the president’s calculus appeared to involve legacy, said the other. ‘The argument came down to politics and legacy.’” 2. ALL ABOARD THE OMNIBUS: So much for John Thune's plans. Yesterday, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON told House Republicans that President-elect Trump wants “one big beautiful bill” to enact his sweeping border, tax and energy agenda, Daniella Diaz, Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney report. Making use of a single reconciliation package is at odds with the path carved out by Thune and some other prominent Republicans (including, notes the WSJ, STEPHEN MILLER), who wanted to put some points on the board early in the Trump administration by tackling border and energy policy early and leaving the complicated tax debate for later in the year. Instead, the thinking here is that (1) the House GOP is down to a one-vote margin for the time being, (2) there are major divides among Republicans on tax strategy, and so (3) lumping tax policy in with border and energy policy make those latter two issues sweeteners to attract Republican support. But it’s far from a clear shot. There’s the inside-the-Capitol political reality: The GOP currently has a one-vote margin in the House, meaning they’ll need near unanimity to move forward. And then there’s the outside-the-Capitol political implications: A one-bill approach “will take months to get it through Congress, depriving the party of an immediate win within the first few weeks of a GOP trifecta,” Daniella, Meredith and Jordain write. News on the timing front via Jordain: “Johnson says he's looking at early April (the first week of April) to get a reconciliation bill passed by the House. Wants it on Trump's desk by the end of April, though he acknowledged it could slip into May.” 3. MONEY, MONEY MONEY: “Trump Has Reeled in More Than $200 Million Since Election Day,” by NYT’s Ken Vogel, Maggie Haberman and Theodore Schleifer: Since his victory in November, Trump’s allies “have raised well over $200 million for a constellation of groups that will fund his inauguration, his political operation and eventually his presidential library, according to four people involved in the fund-raising. … Among the pledged donors for the inaugural events are Pfizer, OpenAI, Amazon and Meta, along with cryptocurrency firms. “The total haul for the committee financing his inaugural festivities — at least $150 million raised, with more expected — will eclipse the record-setting $107 million raised for his 2017 inauguration, according to three people briefed on the matter …. The deadline for donating to the inaugural to be eligible for the perks of the weekend is Jan. 10, according to documents distributed to potential donors.” 4. A NAME YOU’RE GOING TO BE HEARING: “New US ethics czar starts vetting incoming Trump officials,” by Reuters’ Heather Timmons and Gabriella Borter: “The top U.S. ethics official charged with preventing government workers' conflicts of interest is about to take the hotseat in Washington, as President-elect Donald Trump's new Cabinet and other appointees declare their financial assets and prepare for their new jobs. ‘We are in touch with the transition team and working with them,’ said DAVID HUITEMA recently when he sat down with Reuters for his first official interview since being sworn in for the job on Dec. 16. … “Ethics experts say the director of the Office of Government Ethics, or OGE, is in the spotlight during any presidential transition, but Huitema faces special challenges ahead of Trump's second term, evaluating a myriad of business ties for Trump, his family and advisers. Experts pointed to the short, rocky tenure of WALTER SHAUB, the last person to hold the job when Trump entered the White House … If he does his job well, chances are good Huitema could be fired fairly promptly, Shaub warned in an open letter last month.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   Tax reform is the key to more housing supply. See our plan. | | | 5. BLINKEN YOU’LL MISS IT: In a wide-ranging interview, outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken sat down with NYT’s Lulu Garcia-Navarro to reflect on the foreign affairs landscape Trump will inherit, the much-criticized withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the future of the war in Ukraine. Some notable moments …
- On Israel and Gaza: “[O]ne of the things that I found a little astounding throughout is that for all of the understandable criticism of the way Israel has conducted itself in Gaza, you hear virtually nothing from anyone since Oct. 7 about Hamas. Why there hasn’t been a unanimous chorus around the world for Hamas to put down its weapons, to give up the hostages, to surrender — I don’t know what the answer is to that. Israel, on various occasions has offered safe passage to Hamas’s leadership and fighters out of Gaza. Where is the world? Where is the world, saying, Yeah, do that! End this! Stop the suffering of people that you brought on! Now, again, that doesn’t absolve Israel of its actions in conducting the war. But I do have to question how it is that we haven’t seen a greater sustained condemnation and pressure on Hamas to stop what it started and to end the suffering of people that it initiated.”
- On Israel after the Oct. 7 attacks: “This wasn’t just the prime minister or a given leader in Israel. This was an entire society that didn’t want any assistance getting to a single Palestinian in Gaza. I argued that for nine hours. President Biden was planning to come to Israel a few days later. And in the course of that argument, when I was getting resistance to the proposition of humanitarian assistance getting in, I told the prime minister, I’m going to call the president and tell him not to come if you don’t allow this assistance to start flowing. And I called the president to make sure that he agreed with that, and he fully did.”
- On Russia’s war in Ukraine: “[H]ad there been any opportunity to engage diplomatically in a way that could end the war on just and durable terms, we would have been the first to seize them. Unfortunately, at least until this moment, we haven’t seen any signs that Russia has been genuinely prepared to engage. I hope that that changes.”
6. NOT SO DOOM AND GLOOM: Though Trump has repeatedly lamented the U.S. is a crime-ridden “laughing stock” whose economy is upended, the America he’s actually inheriting from Biden is actually stronger by traditional metrics and “in better shape than that bequeathed to any newly elected president since GEORGE W. BUSH came into office in 2001,” NYT’s Peter Baker writes. For the first time since the Bush transition in 2001, “there will be no American troops at war overseas on Inauguration Day.” Murders? Down. Illegal immigration? “[B]elow where it was when Mr. Trump left office,” Baker writes. “Jobs are up, wages are rising and the economy is growing as fast as it did during Mr. Trump’s presidency. Unemployment is as low as it was just before the Covid-19 pandemic and near its historic best. Domestic energy production is higher than it has ever been.” Even still … “[M]any Americans do not perceive the country to be doing as well as the data suggests, either because they do not see it in their own lives, they do not trust the statistics or they accept the dystopian view promoted by Mr. Trump.” 7. HACK ATTACK: “How Chinese Hackers Graduated From Clumsy Corporate Thieves to Military Weapons,” by WSJ’s Dustin Volz, Aruna Viswanatha, Sarah Krouse and Drew FitzGerald: “American security officials said they believe the infrastructure intrusions — carried out by a group dubbed Volt Typhoon — are at least in part aimed at disrupting Pacific military supply lines … Beijing didn’t need to leverage Chinese equipment to accomplish most of its goals in the massive infrastructure and telecom attacks … In both hacks, China exploited a range of aging telecom equipment that U.S. companies have trusted for decades.” 8. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Border shelters relieved the pressure during migrant surges. Under Trump, they could become a target,” by AP’s Valerie Gonzalez: ““Republican scrutiny of the shelters is intensifying, and President-elect Donald Trump’s allies consider them a magnet for illegal immigration. Many are nonprofits that rely on federal funding, including $650 million under one program last year alone. … The developments have alarmed immigration advocates and some officials in border communities, including Republicans, who say those communities can collapse without shelter space or a budget to pay for humanitarian costs.” 9. BUNDLE UP: “More than 40 million Americans are under winter weather alerts on Sunday morning as a massive weather system is bringing a mix of snow, ice, and plunge temperatures,” per CBS News. “Forecasters say the dreaded combination of all three will spread eastward in the coming days. … The National Weather Service said more than 36 million people are under winter alerts stretching over 1500 miles from Kansas to the East Coast. Nearly 4 million people are under blizzard warnings in Kansas and Missouri.”
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Melania Trump will be the subject of a new documentary licensed by Amazon Prime and directed by Brett Ratner. Ron DeSantis watched Florida lose to Kentucky with Joe and Kelly Craft. TRANSITIONS — Rep. Tim Moore (R-N.C.) is staffing up with Phillippa Bradley as chief of staff, Grace Davis as deputy chief of staff and comms director, Lindsay Roberts as director of operations, Joe MacFarlane as legislative director and Brett Keeter as district director. … Lizzy Letter is now legislative director for Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). She previously was staff director for the Senate Aging Committee. … Kristin Sleeper is now senior adviser for Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.). She previously was a professional staff member for Senate Energy and Natural Resources under ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.). … … Dan Hillenbrand is now legislative director for Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). He previously was legislative director for Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.). … Colm Pelletier is now legislative assistant for Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.). He previously was legislative correspondent for Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.). … Caroline King is now scheduler for Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.). She previously was deputy scheduler for Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Brendan Carr … Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine … former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell … Gautam Raghavan … Allison Price … Jessie Torres Perkins … WSJ’s Nick Timiraos … POLITICO’s Russell Vea … Ally Flinn of the Cook Political Report … John Solomon … Jeff Hauser … former Reps. Tom Davis (R-Va.), Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.), Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) and Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) … Nick Lanyi … Allison Biasotti of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Caroline Anderegg … Pedro Ribeiro … Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Christine Hall … Danielle Melfi … Niskanen Center’s Matthew La Corte … Josh Galper … Kristen Grimm of Spitfire Strategies … former CIA Director George Tenet … David Bauder … Andrew Mills … Patrick Ottenhoff … David Simas … Mimi Mager … Mandi Merritt Risko of FTI Consulting … Alexis Bataillon Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to promote homeownership and boost economic growth.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most. More than 375,000 listings in the $250,000 and under price range are missing from the market.
We’ve worked with Congress to endorse a package of bills with broad support that would unlock housing inventory.
Legislation like the More Homes on the Market Act would incentivize long-term homeowners to sell by increasing the amount of capital gains they can exclude from the sale of a principal residence.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy, and each home sale generates $125,000 in local economic activity and two jobs.
Addressing housing availability in tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unleash housing inventory, and solve a national crisis. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
